Institutions: The short-term A-share market is highly likely to continue its range-bound fluctuations.

China Long Securities believes that last Friday the market saw choppy consolidation, with trading volume continuing to shrink and short-term sentiment weakening. The SSE Index has stayed in a low-range sideways movement; the loss-making effect on individual stocks is evident, and market confidence remains under sustained pressure. Judging by sector performance, the negative feedback from the power sector has spread more widely, intensifying the market’s loss-making effect. The technology sector has been supported by overseas technology price action, and the upstream and downstream sub-sectors within the CPO industry chain are worth watching. Currently, the market’s overall resilience is weak and it is more sensitive to external negative news. In the short term, the A-share market will most likely continue to trade in a range; if overseas releases more negative news again, there is a risk of a second round of lows.

Ping An Securities believes that in the short term, the Iran–U.S. conflict remains the core variable affecting global asset pricing. The current situation still has many uncertainties, and it is not ruled out that ground operations could drive an escalation of hostilities. The marginal changes in the domestic macro environment are limited. The core variables in April are inflation data, listed company earnings reports, and dividend proposals. In the short term, stock market volatility is expected to remain high. Capital will likely continue to price assets around a defensive logic and earnings signals. Dividend-oriented sectors and technology directions with solid fundamentals are expected to outperform relatively. In the medium to long term, amid rapid changes in the global political and economic order, China’s asset safety advantage is expected to become even more prominent.

Caitai Securities believes that with the Iran–U.S. situation still unclear, A-share earnings reports gradually being disclosed, renewed U.S. tariff risks, and an increase in pre-holiday risk-avoidance sentiment, the A-share market last week continued to consolidate in weakness, with trading value declining somewhat and market risk appetite still needing to improve. Looking ahead, before the end of April, the market is expected to most likely continue in a range-bound consolidation trend, and a trend-driven rally will still need to wait. The duration and intensity of the Iran–U.S. conflict will both have a major impact on the market’s operating rhythm. At present, the “Iran–U.S. conflict” is only affecting inflation and market expectations; the market has not yet priced in its broad and far-reaching impact on global economic growth prospects. From the perspective of global oil reserves, if the Strait of Hormuz is locked down for up to three months, the strategic oil reserves of major global economies will become tight. At that time, a shortage of crude oil may further transmit into the economy, increasing downside pressure on the economies of major global economies. At that time, there may be risks of “killing earnings” in equity markets.