[Comprehensive Morning Report] Trump says he will take strong action against Iran, Ukraine strikes have hindered Russian oil exports

Micro-Wei Comprehensive Morning News

For the full contents of today’s comprehensive morning news, please see the Micro-Wei mini program.

Comprehensive Morning News report editor: Wang Xintong

Practitioner qualification number: F03086853

Investment advisory number: Z0016555

Product Commentary

Macro

Gold

Geopolitical developments: as the situation progresses, gold prices fall again.

U.S. stock index futures

With the Strait of Hormuz expected to resume some passage, U.S. stocks open lower and then rise, closing up slightly.

Stock index futures

Affected by Trump’s hawkish remarks, market expectations that the U.S.-Iran war would gradually come to a halt have been sharply reversed; oil prices rise, gold prices fall, and global stock markets pull back.

Black commodities

Rebar / hot-rolled coil

For the five major product categories, inventory reduction is normal; the situation in the Middle East still affects the market.

Coking coal, coke

From the fundamentals, the overall supply-demand pattern is relatively loose, downstream demand uptake is limited, and going forward we should focus on changes on the demand side.

Crude oil

Oil prices surged significantly as expectations of further short-term escalation of Middle East conflicts were reignited.

Fuel oil

Over the medium to long term, if navigation through the strait continues to be restricted, the global fuel oil supply pattern will tighten, and the price center of gravity is expected to move higher further.

Chemicals

Float glass

In recent days, the glass futures market has continued to weaken. At one point, near-month contracts even fell below the 1,000 yuan/ton threshold. This week, inventories at raw-sheet manufacturers changed little month over month.

Caustic soda

In recent days, the caustic soda market has been running on the weaker side. Due to heavy pressure from its own fundamentals, the caustic soda market is clearly under strain. This week, caustic soda manufacturers’ inventories continued to accumulate month over month.

Nonferrous metals

Copper

Trump threatens action regarding the Iran war, and copper prices surge up then turn to range trading.

Lithium carbonate

Strategically, it still makes more sense to focus on buying on dips, but before supply disruptions are truly realized, even a spot-driven advance may face some difficulty in breaking above the previous high.

Zinc

LME concentrated cancellations; zinc prices are trading with oscillations and rebounding.

Lead

There are expectations that electric vehicles may see price increases, but there is a risk that social inventories may build up.

Tin

Domestic inventories continue to decline.

Platinum

Platinum–palladium are trading weakly with range volatility.

Agricultural products

Soymeal

For now, futures prices will likely remain range-bound; the market will continue to focus on progress in the Middle East situation.

Soybean oil, rapeseed oil, palm oil

Market institutions predict that Malaysia’s March palm oil inventories will fall sharply. The rebound in international oil prices has lifted the fats and oils market, supporting a turnaround from the bottom.

White sugar

The domestic March production and sales data from major producing areas that will be released soon are expected to show that the production-sales rate remains relatively low.

Corn

The tight spot situation for corn has eased somewhat, and the basis and futures prices will maintain a high-level range-bound pattern.

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