When in doubt, ask the spring breeze.

April 7th: Field Notes[Taoguba]
After the Qingming Festival rain, the Shanghai Composite Index breaks 3900 again.
The news flow is bright here and dim there. Reports of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel stir the world—oil prices rise first and then jump around; before the A-shares even open, my mind has already played out several scenes.
Looking back at last week, 4700 stocks turned green in the air; compute power is the only stubborn one—CPO surged to a limit-up against the trend, and funds are tightly clustering together.
A new week begins. I’m not betting on direction. I won’t chase if the market opens too high. If it falls, I’ll take another look. This is the April earnings season—both landmines and opportunities coexist. No pessimism, no impulsiveness; I’ll leave about one-third of my position capacity as room.
As for this thing called the stock market—it can’t be rushed. What’s coming will come; what should be avoided, avoid it.
The spring breeze says nothing. I remain steadfast in my own convictions.
【Market Review】
1、Before the holiday, A-shares continued the low-volume adjustment. After more than 4700 individual stocks fell, sentiment neared an all-time low. There is indeed accumulating demand for a technical rebound. But the scale of quantitative hedge funds keeps expanding (four firms over 80 billion, more than 50 firms in the 100-million-figures range), which means neither market volatility nor the difficulty of short-term trading games will be low. You need to be mentally prepared for that.
2、The biggest external variable is the Middle East. If the Iran–Israel ceasefire rumor lands, global risk-avoidance sentiment will clearly ease. That’s a direct positive for A-shares’ technology and growth direction; but if the situation keeps turning back and forth, funds will still hide in defensive sectors such as energy and high-dividend stocks. The Strait of Hormuz’s passage volume is already recovering, indicating that all sides have their own interests and demands. A ceasefire is not impossible, but the meddling of “fighting while negotiating” won’t be short on drama.
3、In the medium term, two main themes are still fairly clear. One is compute power. Policies are pushing for “compute power banks,” all-optical switching; plus after adjustments to pricing by Zhipu, compute power can still be sold out—showing that supply and demand for compute power is indeed tight. Even if the broader market chops around, in directions like CPO, optical communications, and compute-power leasing that have industrial logic support, funds’ willingness to cluster will be stronger. The other is consumption. Nine departments and 64 measures aren’t empty talk. During the Qingming holiday, intercity travel growth was 15%, and smart wearables jumped by several times. Pop Mart has even been targeted by Yongping Duan in the United States—service consumption and quality- and smart-oriented consumer goods. Repair opportunities are slowly accumulating.
4、Risks also can’t be ignored. Repeated “talks and fighting in parallel” in the Middle East; uncertainty around new rules for quant funds; April earnings-season individual-stock explosions (recently, multiple companies have already been filed for investigation); and even Apple’s high pricing for foldable screens potentially suppressing replacement demand—these are all real pressures.
5、In terms of strategy, if expectations for a ceasefire can be stabilized, you can pay attention to oversold AI compute power and consumer electronics (especially the Apple supply chain), as well as service consumption such as sports and tourism. If the situation stays chaotic, then just control position sizes honestly and lean toward energy and dividend-oriented themes. Inside optical communications, the follow-on gains from laggards; in pharma, individual stocks with high scarcity value; and policy-driven sub-sectors such as lithium battery recycling and AI e-commerce are also worth digging into.
All in all, there is a short-term rebound window, but trading volume and how clear the situation becomes are key. In the medium term, we still look to the two legs: compute-power technology and service consumption. At the same time, stay alert to the amplified volatility from quant funds and the risks in the earnings season. Watch more, move less; once signals are clear, act then. It won’t be late.

** These are my personal review and thoughts only and do not constitute investment advice.**