The holiday is over, a brief morning market overview

Hey everyone, good morning, and thank you all for yesterday’s support. Let’s briefly go over the market this morning.

As for the holiday period, the news flow is still revolving around that situation in Iran—one moment they say it’s a ceasefire, the next moment they say it’s not. Is this entering a protracted war? However, Yao Jie believes whether there is a ceasefire or not won’t affect A-shares’ expectations; at most it could lead to some emotion-driven impact relative to other trading days, and our side’s price action is somewhat independent.

Speaking of our side, Friday was a complete low point. There were only four continuous-limit-up stocks left. The broad market broke down below 3900, and the total turnover was only 1.6w billion. The broad market’s pattern looks pretty ugly. From the standpoint of expectations, the probability that we’ll pull back to the previous low is not small—the key is when we hit it.

Emotion-wise, it’s basically rock bottom. Although the high-end names still had consecutive instant limit-ups—Jinyao Pharmaceutical, for example—the mid-tier is already cut off. The high-end is in a defensive position plus emotion-driven independence; you can’t really see much from it. But today we face heavy pressure from severe abnormal trading—we need to see whether capital is willing to absorb it. Judging by the strength, Friday should be fine. $Jinyao Pharmaceutical (sh600488)$

On themes, it’s basically been wiped out. The medical sector was strong on Thursday; then after W said they’d add tariffs overnight, it was followed through—and it got cashed out. But Yao Jie feels this “cashing out” wasn’t caused by the tariffs; it was more likely that the stock rose and then saw quant-driven profit-taking. Otherwise, it wouldn’t leave so many low-level survivors. After all, the main theme was hyped up on Thursday night, and on Friday it was realized.

Then there’s the fiber-optic sector. Changfei Optic Fiber continues to lead as a trending stock; right now it’s entering a “clear trend, bright acceleration” phase. If you want to participate, it’s still a bit “sneaky”—up one day, shake for two or three days, and it’s best to wait and squat.

As for the intraday outlook, the recommendation is to observe what stance the funds take toward severe abnormal trading—whether they’re willing to push through is already an active decision, not a passive one. Above all, don’t rush into the open too quickly.