Soybean spot and futures prices rise, putting pressure on downstream deep-processing companies' costs

Heilongjiang is one of China’s main soybean production areas, and the photo shows the venue of the Heilongjiang Soybean Industry High-Quality Development Conference. Sun Xianchao/Photo

Securities Times reporter Sun Xianchao

Over the past half year, domestic soybean futures and spot prices have continued to rise. Although the market has seen choppy consolidation and adjustment recently, industry insiders remain generally optimistic about the outlook.

Industry experts and interviewed industry analysts believe that although the global soybean supply-and-demand situation is broadly loose at present, China’s domestic market shows a clear structural supply contradiction. Combined with multiple factors such as divergence in output among overseas major producing countries and disruptions from geopolitical developments, there is a good chance that soybean prices will remain elevated going forward.

Rising soybean prices directly transmit to the cost side of downstream soybean deep-processing listed companies, making plans for stable production and risk prevention and control increasingly critical. Against this backdrop, making rational use of the futures market’s hedging and risk-reduction function to avoid business risks has become an important choice for relevant listed companies in response to price volatility.

Soybean prices rise out of season

Since October 2025, domestic soybean futures and spot prices have shown a trend of rising, breaking the traditional seasonal downtrend pattern. The benchmark soybean futures contract reached a temporary high in mid-March 2026 and then pulled back. In this round, the maximum price increase exceeded 25%. As of early April 2026, prices were still up nearly 16% versus October 2025.

“In this round of the market, the timing on the spot and futures sides differs somewhat. Domestic soybean futures’ benchmark contract started a trend-based rally as early as October 2025, with a cumulative increase of 4.46% that month, equivalent to 175 yuan per ton. But during the same period, soybean spot prices showed a decline.” Hou Xueling, an oilseeds and oils analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, said.

“The core reason for this difference is that, at that time, the spot market was under pressure from concentrated listings caused by faster harvesting of new beans, while the futures market had already captured the structural contradiction of reduced supplies of high-protein soybeans and started moving upward earlier than the spot market. ” Hou Xueling said. Since November 2025, the soybean spot market has entered a mode of making up for lagging gains, and futures and spot prices have risen in tandem. The spot price peak also occurred in mid-March. In Suihua Hait a（Tah grain）, the price reached 2.42 yuan per jin, up 10% from the end of September 2025 and up 18.6% from the end of October 2025; in Huaibei, Anhui（Net grain）, the price reached 2.85 yuan per jin, up 5.5% from the end of September 2025 and up 14% from the end of October 2025. The spot price increase was lower than that of futures mainly because the futures market primarily reflects high-protein soybean prices, while the spot market reflects the overall行情 of both low-protein and high-protein soybeans.

Liu Mei, a soybean analyst in the agricultural products business unit of Shanghai Steel Union, told Securities Times reporter Sun Xianchao that since October 2025, the rise in domestic soybean futures and spot prices can be divided into three stages, all centered on the key contradiction of “a structural shortage of high-protein soybeans,” though the driving factors differ across stages: the first stage was triggered by poor harvests in southern regions and delayed harvesting in Northeast China; the second stage benefited from the release of demand for holiday stockpiling and policy support; and the third stage was driven by tighter residual grain at the grassroots level and a resonance with resumption of work and production.

Hou Xueling believes that this out-of-season increase in domestic soybean prices differs significantly from earlier industry expectations. Before the rally began, the market had a consensus expectation for a bumper soybean harvest, and the industry generally took a bearish view of prices, with trading mainly dominated by selling—excessive advance sales by sellers and buyers delaying procurement. But in the end, domestic soybean prices followed a rising logic driven by scarcities in high-protein soybean sources, creating a huge gap versus prevailing expectations in the industry, which then triggered an out-of-season rally. After that, external support for the sustained uptrend in soybean prices came from factors such as higher purchase prices at producing areas, higher prices for imported soybeans, rising corn prices, and farmers holding back from selling, among others.

Supply has structural contradictions

Supply-and-demand relationships are one of the core factors that determine commodity prices. The combined soybean output of the United States, Brazil, and Argentina accounts for roughly 80% of global total production, dominating the global soybean supply pattern. In recent years, China’s soybean import scale has entered a fast-growth channel, making China the world’s largest soybean importer.

According to customs data, in 2025 China imported 118 million tons of soybeans, up 6.5% year on year, setting a historical high.

At the Heilongjiang Provincial Soybean Industry High-Quality Development Conference held earlier, Wang Liaowei, head of the Materiel Supervision Technology Support Division of the National Grain and Materiel Reserves Data Center, said that according to shipping schedule monitoring, China’s soybean import volume in January and February 2026 was 12.54 million tons, down 7.8% year on year. In March, imports are expected to reach 7.5 million tons upon arrival. With more Brazilian soybeans arriving gradually, starting in April China’s soybean import volume will further rebound.

As Securities Times reporter previously understood, as a main soybean producing area in China, Heilongjiang grows non-GMO soybeans with a relatively higher protein content, mainly used for food processing to meet domestic consumption needs. Meanwhile, soybeans imported from Brazil and other countries have a higher oil extraction rate and are mainly used for producing edible oil and processing soybean meal for animal feed.

Under strong policy promotion, domestic soybean output has achieved steady growth in recent years. Wang Liaowei said that China’s soybean output has been maintained above 20 million tons for four consecutive years. In 2025, it reached 20.95 million tons, setting a historical record high.

Hou Xueling said that although China’s domestic soybean total output in 2025 still achieved a bumper harvest, the share of high-protein soybeans declined and supplies became scarce, leading to greater price upside elasticity for high-protein soybeans. Among them, soybeans from the Northeast production area have good quality and a relatively high proportion of high-protein beans, while in other provinces and regions the share of high-protein soybeans decreased due to weather impacts; therefore, Northeast soybean prices performed more strongly. At the same time, factors such as higher costs for imported soybeans and rising corn prices provided solid bottom support for domestic soybean prices, lifting the overall level of domestic soybean prices.

“During the 2025/2026 crop year, the global soybean supply-and-demand situation is overall relatively loose. Global soybean production is expected to be 427 million tons, unchanged from the previous year; total demand will reach 425 million tons, up 11 million tons year on year; and ending stocks will be 125 million tons, up 1.47 million tons year on year,” Wang Liaowei pointed out. At this stage, besides supply-and-demand relationships, attention should also be paid to the chain-link impact of the Iran-U.S. war on global agricultural commodity prices: first, higher crude oil prices raise agricultural commodity logistics costs; second, higher crude oil and natural gas prices increase costs of agricultural inputs such as synthetic ammonia and nitrogen fertilizers, thereby raising crop planting costs; third, rising crude oil prices highlight the economic viability of biodiesel and ethanol, boosting industrial demand for agricultural products such as vegetable oils and corn.

Many measures to absorb cost pressure

At present, industry sentiment on the future trend of soybeans is largely bullish. Chen Yingjian, an expert in the soybean market analysis and early-warning team of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that it is expected that spot prices of high-protein soybeans will continue to move independently of futures prices and maintain a leading position. During the harvesting period of the new season soybeans,抢收（urgent harvesting) may happen again. In the medium to long term, over the next 3 to 5 years, balance between domestic soybean supply and demand will become the market norm, making it difficult to see a situation where production exceeds demand again. High-range operation of soybean futures may gradually become normalized.

Liu Mei also said that because the soybean-to-corn profit ratio is insufficient, the market’s judgment is that planting willingness for new-crop soybeans in the 2026/2027 crop year will decline. Combined with rising costs of planting inputs such as land lease expenses and fertilizers, planting costs are expected to increase, and the opening price for new-crop soybeans is expected to rise as well. In addition, ending stocks of domestic soybeans in the 2025/2026 crop year are at a low level for the past four years. Coupled with factors such as external geopolitical disruptions, adjustments to biodiesel policies, and a modest tightening in global soybean supply and demand, there will likely be more positive factors for the soybean market. Over the medium to long term, prices still have room to rise.

It is understood that soybeans are an important raw material for multiple listed companies such as Zuzu Co., Ltd., Weiyi Co., Ltd., Zhu Lao Liu, and Jiahua Co., Ltd. Price volatility directly affects companies’ production costs and operating efficiency.

In recent institutional research, Zhu Lao Liu disclosed that soybean prices have continued to rise—from 4,400 yuan per ton at the start of 2025 to 5,000 yuan per ton currently. However, the company completed its full-year soybean procurement in early 2026 and has stored sufficient raw materials. Therefore, the impact of price volatility on gross margin for its fu ru (fermented tofu) business in 2026 is expected to be relatively limited.

Weiyi Co., Ltd. previously stated that based on its assessment, the planting area for domestic soybeans in 2026 will remain relatively stable, and the volume of newly上市 soybeans is expected to remain high. The overall supply-and-demand situation in the market is relatively loose, which will provide strong support for stable supply of non-GMO soybean raw materials, help smooth out raw material price volatility, and reduce the cost of operating the industry.

Regarding the operational risks brought by soybean price volatility, Chen Yingjian advised that downstream processing enterprises can rationally use the hedging function of the futures market to effectively avoid price fluctuation risks and stabilize operating benefits.

Weiyi Co., Ltd. previously issued an announcement stating that, to reasonably avoid risks arising from fluctuations in the prices of raw materials and products during production and operation, the company’s subsidiaries plan to carry out hedging business. By using hedging mechanisms to mitigate risks, they will offset the impact of price fluctuations of major raw materials and products and enhance the company’s ability to withstand risks.

（责任编辑：董萍萍 ）

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