Bitcoin drops again, falling below $94,000, erasing all gains this year

At around 17:00 Beijing time on the 17th, after surging to $96,600, Bitcoin plunged again, at one point falling to $93,778.6 and erasing all gains made so far this year. Around 7:00 a.m., Bitcoin was down more than 1%, falling below $95,000. Multiple crypto products followed suit.

According to coinglass, in the past 24 hours, more than 150k people worldwide in the global cryptocurrency market have been liquidated.

On the news front: Recently, market expectations for a December rate cut have cooled, and overall US risk appetite has clearly declined.

Citing Securities Times, referencing the CME “FedWatch,” the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has fallen below 50%, at only 44.4%, while the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged has risen to 55.6%; the probability that the Federal Reserve will cumulatively cut rates by 25 basis points by January next year is 48.6%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 34.7%, and the probability of cumulative cuts of 50 basis points is 16.7%.

According to a prior report by Caixin Global, short-term interest rate futures (the best real-time indicator of market expectations for Fed policy) show that the likelihood of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cutting rates on December 10 has already fallen to 47%, while earlier the same week this probability was still 67%.

Morgan Stanley expects that before the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on December 9–10, it will be able to obtain complete data from the US September job report, inflation, retail sales, and the initial estimate of third-quarter GDP; the key is whether the employment reports for October and November can be released on time.

In addition, Bank of America and Nomura have already expected in their research reports that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady in December.

Also, according to China Central Television News, on the 14th, Logan, the president of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, a Federal Reserve affiliate, said that unless she sees clear evidence that US inflation is falling back faster, she does not support the Federal Reserve cutting rates again in December. Logan noted that the current level of inflation in the US is still trending upward, and it will take time to return to the 2% target.

Previously, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that the US government “shutdown” has caused missing economic data, which makes him even more cautious about further rate cuts. Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook also said that, given the dual risks of inflation and the labor market outlook, it is currently not possible to determine that there will be another rate cut in December.

(Statement: The contents of the article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investors act at their own risk.)

(Editor: Wen Jing)

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