#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Market Analysis and Outlook for This Week: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, Silver

Recap: The past week in the markets was both interesting and boring. Trump seems to have a script, almost daily posting to help shape the market trend:
March 30: Trump said a deal was close, causing Bitcoin to surge $3,000 in one day.
Same day, March 30: He announced a new Iranian power plant would be destroyed, causing Bitcoin to plummet $2,000.
March 31: Trump said the war was nearing an end, and Bitcoin rose another $2,000.
April 1: Trump stated US-Iran negotiations are ongoing, and Bitcoin increased by $1,500.
April 3: Trump said the Iran war would last another 2 to 3 weeks, and Bitcoin dropped another $2,500.
April 6: Trump announced a 45-day ceasefire negotiation between the US and Iran, and Bitcoin rose another $2,200. Based on this pattern, the crypto market roughly shows this trend...
According to Reuters, as the Tuesday night 8 PM deadline approaches, regional mediators proposed a two-phase implementation plan. This is the fifth time the deadline has been extended within 17 days:
• March 21: 48-hour deadline
• March 23: 5-day extension
• March 26: 10-day extension
• April 4: 48-hour deadline
• April 5: extended to April 7
Notice a pattern? Each time the deadline approaches, Trump announces extensions to soothe the market. Once the market recovers, he again states no negotiations are happening, and attacks will continue. Will an agreement finally be reached this time? Or will Trump play games and break his word again?
Today, Monday, the overall market is buoyed by hopes for a US-Iran ceasefire, ignoring Trump's series of crude threats against Iran. Trump said he plans to hold a press conference at 1 PM Eastern Time Monday afternoon, mentioning Tuesday night 8 PM, but without further details.
Meanwhile, Iran continues to fight for itself. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, restricting global oil supply and pushing up crude prices. Due to local oil storage nearing capacity, Persian Gulf oil producers have been forced to cut output by about 6%. The Strait of Hormuz typically handles about 20% of global oil transportation. The UAE is preparing to assist the US and allies in forcefully reopening the strait and is lobbying the UN Security Council to pass a resolution authorizing such action.
The International Energy Agency warns that even if the war ends in a few weeks, normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will take time to resume, as some energy infrastructure has been damaged and will require long-term repairs.
Therefore, if the situation remains similar in the coming days, oil prices are likely to stay firm. Elements to watch in the next week include:
- Whether there are signs of sustained reopening of the Strait of Hormuz or continued restrictions.
- Whether the Monday rebound can sustain or quickly retreat. Are short positions beginning to close, or are they still high?
- Whether US inflation expectations remain elevated.
Market Outlook for Major Assets in the Coming Week
BTC: According to the rainbow chart, Bitcoin currently shows no vitality. Candlestick charts indicate that if BTC repeats past reflexive patterns related to US-Iran war conditions, its price range in the next week will stay within $2,500. If there is no substantial progress on the US-Iran ceasefire, it will negatively impact BTC movement. If progress is made, the market will cheer. Today, BTC price rose and may face resistance near $71,550; if the price continues upward, do not ignore the strong resistance at $74,000. If BTC moves downward, it could still fall within a $2,500 decline, with key support around $65,750.
ETH: ETH and BTC are currently following similar trajectories. Today, ETH price rose and may face resistance near $2,230. If it continues upward, watch the $2,300 resistance level. If ETH cannot maintain upward momentum, support is around $1,980.
Gold: Gold remains a safe-haven asset amid turmoil. It may rise over the next week, possibly facing resistance at $4,900. Support levels are at $4,646 and $4,390.
Silver: Silver may continue upward in the next week, with resistance around $77. If momentum is strong, it could temporarily rise near $81. If it declines, key support is around $66.
Key Elements Influencing the Market This Week:
- Latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Substantial progress on the ceasefire agreement.
- US policy updates: maintaining consistency or further schedule adjustments.
- US inflation and labor market data