"Federal Reserve mouthpiece": Low employment growth may become the new normal, but it is especially fragile in the context of war

MeNews · 2026-04-07T00:08:48+00:00

ME News Report, April 4 (UTC+8), "Federal Reserve spokesperson" Nick Timiraos wrote that 178k new jobs were added in March, reversing the sharp decline seen in February. The unemployment rate also fell to 4.3%. However, some details are less optimistic, as wage growth for ordinary workers slowed to the lowest year-over-year increase in five years since the pandemic recovery. Averaging these two volatile months reveals a clearer potential trend: an average of only 22.5k new jobs per month. Two years ago, adding 22.5k jobs per month would have been cause for concern; today, such a level might still be considered acceptable. Federal Reserve officials are still working to explain this change. San Francisco Fed President Daly wrote on Friday, "It's not easy to help the public understand that an economy with zero job growth can still be consistent with full employment." As the new supply shocks arrive again, the situation

MeNews

2026-04-07 00:08:48

ME News message, April 4 (UTC+8), “Federal Reserve megaphone” Nick Timiraos wrote that in March, 178,000 new jobs were added, reversing the sharp drop in February. The unemployment rate also fell to 4.3%. But some details are not so optimistic: wage growth for ordinary workers has slowed to the lowest year-over-year pace in five years since the post-pandemic recovery. Averaging these two months, which had large fluctuations, makes the underlying trend clearer: the monthly average net job additions are only 22,500 positions. Two years ago, adding 22,500 jobs per month was enough to raise alarms; today, that level might still be seen as acceptable.

Federal Reserve officials are still working to explain this shift. In a post on Friday, San Francisco Fed President Daly wrote: “Helping the public understand that an economy with zero job growth is still consistent with full employment is not easy.” With fresh supply shocks arriving again, this situation is especially fragile. If the war in Iran continues, high fuel costs or shortages of commodities may squeeze firms and consumers, leaving the labor market with insufficient buffer to absorb the shock. At the same time, worries about inflation may weaken the certainty of rate cuts, further limiting the Federal Reserve’s policy room.

(Source: ChainCatcher)

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

1 Likes