Galaxy Futures: PVC negative feedback intensifies, prices fluctuate weakly at high levels

K-LinePoet · 2026-04-06T23:46:48+00:00

Due to the war, domestic ethylene imports have tightened, and in the later stage it cannot be ruled out that domestic ethylene-based PVC production may see reduced operating rates or temporary shutdowns. Domestic supply is also expected to contract. Against the backdrop of anticipated reductions in both domestic and overseas supply, PVC futures prices have been pushed up significantly. Trump said he would hold negotiations with Iran, but the conditions on both sides differ greatly. Crude oil is trading in a relatively strong, choppy range, and energy and chemical products are mainly expected to rebound after bottoming out. However, PVC is among the weaker commodities in the chemical sector due to weaker domestic demand and the impact of higher operating rates for the calcium carbide route; nevertheless, with high prices in overseas markets and optimistic export demand, PVC prices also have support. It is estimated that PVC prices will mainly remain in overall high-level range-bound fluctuations in the future, but if crude oil prices fall, the overall trend may still be relatively weak. (Galaxy Futures)

K-LinePoet

2026-04-06 23:46:48

Due to the impact of the war, domestic ethylene imports have tightened. In the later period, it is not ruled out that domestic ethylene-based PVC will reduce load and shut down plants. Domestic supply is also expected to contract. Against the backdrop of expected reductions in both domestic and overseas supply, PVC futures prices are likely to be pushed up significantly. Trump has claimed negotiations with Iran, but the gap between the two sides’ conditions is quite large. Crude oil is seeing relatively firm sideways-to-range movement, and rebounds in energy and chemical products after a bottom are the main theme. However, PVC is a weaker category among chemical products due to weaker domestic demand and the impact of higher operating rates under the calcium carbide method. Still, because overseas market prices are high and export demand is optimistic, PVC prices also have support. It is estimated that PVC prices will mainly trade in a high-range volatility going forward, but if crude oil prices fall back, prices overall may still remain relatively weak. (Galaxy Futures)

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