A sharp surge in the early morning! Trump makes a major statement! Israel launches a large-scale airstrike

Trump Issues Major Warning.

On April 6, Eastern Time, U.S. President Trump held a press conference regarding the war involving Iran. Trump reiterated that 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time on April 7 is the final deadline for Iran to reach an agreement, warning that if the deadline is missed, the United States will launch a four-hour airstrike; Iran’s entire country could even be thoroughly defeated overnight—perhaps on the evening of the 7th. Meanwhile, Trump also claimed that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are “progressing very smoothly.”

As a result, international oil prices surged sharply upward. U.S. WTI crude oil futures’ front-month contract once jumped to $114 per barrel, and the front-month price of Brent crude oil futures also briefly broke above the $110 per barrel level. The three major U.S. stock indexes once plunged together, then turned lower and subsequently kept rising; they all closed higher.

Regarding the fighting in the Middle East, on the local time of the 6th, the Israel Defense Forces released a statement saying that the Israeli military launched a “large-scale airstrike” on multiple airports in Iran’s capital, Tehran, destroying dozens of Iranian Air Force aircraft and helicopters.

Trump’s Latest Comments

On April 7, according to Xinhua News Agency, President Trump, who on the 6th held a press conference at the White House, threatened that the U.S. military only needs “4 hours” to blow up all of Iran’s bridges and power plants. He also claimed that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are “progressing very smoothly.”

At the press conference, Trump said that the U.S. is having talks with Iran, with Vice President Vance and presidential special envoy Witkov entering into it.

“I think everything is going well, but we’ll have to wait and see.” He also said, “I can’t talk about a ceasefire, but I can tell you that there is a participant on their side who is positive and willing,” “They want to reach an agreement. Beyond that, I can’t share any more.”

Earlier that day at an event at the White House, Trump told the media that after he issued his final ultimatum on the 5th, Iran’s negotiating representatives put forward a major proposal; although it was “not good enough, it is indeed an important step.” Iran “has already taken a very important step. We’ll wait and see.”

At the press conference, Trump threatened that if Iran failed to reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz before 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time on the 7th, he would launch a four-hour airstrike.

“We have a plan: by 24:00 tomorrow (Eastern Time), every bridge inside Iran will be completely destroyed; every power station will be completely incapacitated. They will be engulfed in flames, experience explosions, and will never be able to be put into use again.” He said, “If we’re willing, all of this can be done in just 4 hours. But we don’t want this to happen.”

Trump said that Iran’s entire country could even be thoroughly crushed overnight, and that night—perhaps would be the night of April 7.

When asked by the media whether the U.S. military bombing of Iran’s civilian infrastructure and cutting off power supplies is intended to punish the Iranian people, Trump shamelessly claimed, “They are willing to… they are willing to endure this suffering.” Earlier that day, he had also shamelessly claimed that the Iranian people “want to hear the sound of bombs.”

According to a report on April 6 by Iran’s Islamic Republic News Agency, Iran responded to the U.S. proposal to end the war. This response includes 10 clauses, covering a series of demands from Iran, including ending regional conflicts, setting up a safe passage agreement for the Strait of Hormuz, carrying out reconstruction, and lifting sanctions. Iran ruled out the possibility of a temporary ceasefire, emphasizing that the conflict must be ended permanently.

In response, Trump said that Iran’s proposal, while meaningful, is still not good enough. Trump also said that whether the war is about to escalate or is nearing an end depends on Iran’s response to the “final deadline” he set for it.

Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said that reopening the strait is of the utmost importance. He also said that the tolls for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz should be collected by the United States rather than Iran.

A report by the U.S. newspaper The Wall Street Journal on the 6th, citing people familiar with the matter, said that the U.S. and regional mediators are working to push a 45-day ceasefire agreement in order to completely end the war between the U.S. and Iran, but for now the possibility of reaching an agreement remains “still slim.”

Crude Oil Surges Straight Up

After Trump issued the threats, financial markets clearly showed volatility. Two major international crude oil benchmark prices surged straight up. The settlement price of the WTI May contract closed at $112.41 per barrel, up 0.78%; the settlement price of the Brent June contract closed at $109.77 per barrel, up 0.68%.

Meanwhile, the three major U.S. stock indexes once plunged together, turned from gains to losses, and the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hit fresh intraday lows. After that, the three indexes returned to modest gains and ultimately all closed higher together: the S&P 500 rose 0.44%, the Nasdaq rose 0.54%, and both logged a four-day winning streak; the Dow rose 0.36%.

Large-cap tech stocks in the U.S. traded mixed. Apple and Google and Amazon rose more than 1%; Nvidia and TSMC ADRs closed slightly higher. Tesla fell more than 2%, while Microsoft and Meta closed slightly lower.

Michael Rosen, Chief Investment Officer at Angeles Investments, warned: “The market may be underestimating the direct and intermediate-term impact of energy disruptions. Energy prices will remain elevated for a longer period.”

Jeff Roach, Chief Economist at LPL Financial, said, “If the dispute over the Strait of Hormuz continues into May and June, it would significantly worsen the outlook for the U.S. and the global economy.”

Although investors are extremely focused on geopolitical risk, Mark Hackett, Chief Market Strategist at Nationwide, said that macro data continues to show the economy has resilience, and the outlook for earnings at U.S. stocks remains optimistic.

In a report to clients, Goldman Sachs said, “The selloff of ‘fast money’ is weakening. In the coming month, this group could turn to net buying of about $55 billion, of which about $20 billion is in U.S. stocks.”

Ed Yardeni, a senior strategist, said that after a pullback from last year’s record highs, tech stocks have returned to attractive levels for investors willing to make long-term allocations.

（Source: China Securities Journal）