The ceasefire has been announced! Analysts risked their lives to conduct on-site research in the Strait of Hormuz. What did they discover?

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Source: Value Line

Value Line introduction

Today, foreign media says that the U.S. and Iran have a ceasefire rocket launch “ready to happen.” Will this one actually come true?

While the whole world watches satellite images to guess whether the situation is “on” or “off,” some analysts risk their lives to conduct on-the-ground research and found many different, real data points.

Tomorrow, Artemis 2 will be about to pass over the far side of the Moon, bringing a milestone moment.

In April, can A-shares break through the shadow of war?

A U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement may take effect on the 6th

Today, a source said that the United States and Iran have received a draft plan for the ceasefire agreement, which could take effect on the 6th. The source said that Pakistan has prepared a framework proposal to end the conflict and has communicated with the U.S. and Iran.

Under the proposal, the two sides would first achieve an immediate ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and then reach a final agreement within 15 to 20 days. The final agreement may include an Iranian commitment not to seek nuclear weapons in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and the release of frozen assets.

Also, according to CCTV News, on the 6th local time, a reporter from the main station learned from sources that Iran and the United States have received a plan to end hostilities and immediately impose a ceasefire.

The source said that Pakistan has developed a framework for ending hostilities and exchanged views with Iran and the United States. The framework outlines a two-step strategy: first an immediate ceasefire, then a comprehensive agreement.

It was reported that Pakistan’s Army Chief of Staff Asim Munir and the U.S. Vice President Vance, the U.S. President’s special envoy Whitko(v), and Iran’s Foreign Minister Alag(h)zi held an all-night exchange.

Under the proposal, the ceasefire would take effect immediately, the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, and 15 to 20 days would be set aside to finalize a broader solution. The agreement is provisionally named the “Islamabad Agreement” and will hold final in-person talks in Islamabad. According to sources, the final agreement is expected to include an Iranian commitment not to develop nuclear weapons in exchange for lifting sanctions and releasing frozen assets.

It is worth noting that on the 6th, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a statement saying that the head of the IRGC intelligence organization, Hadmi, was killed in the U.S.-Israel attacks.

An on-the-ground HOrmuz Strait field survey made at the risk of one’s life—what did it say?

Today’s most “explosive” piece of material in the financial circle comes from a first-hand field report about the Strait of Hormuz.

When the market debates whether the strait is “actually open” and whether it might “suddenly close,” this report directly brings the discussion back to the scene.

Citrini Research is an investment research institution with a distinctive style and strong personal flavor. It has attracted attention for its bold viewpoints and repeated “end-of-day reports” that have sparked market volatility.

The protagonist of the report is the mysterious “Analyst No. 3” at Citrini Research.

Analyst 3, armed with proficiency in four languages including Arabic, carried out on-the-ground research in real-world conditions. Despite very clear opposition advice from Oman border officials and two coast guard officers holding assault rifles, he boarded a speedboat without GPS and headed to the Strait of Hormuz for on-the-ground research.

He went to the area near the strait to “watch multiple ships,” checked shipping routes, chatted with local residents and crew members, and recorded detailed information about inspections, detentions, and risk encountered along the way.

Many readers’ first reaction after finishing it is: this feels more like a warzone reconnaissance log than macro commentary produced inside an office—and it’s exactly that kind of impact of “using details to pull the market back to reality,” which is consistently Citrini’s style.

Key conclusion information is as follows:

Conclusion 1: The Strait of Hormuz is not “completely closed,” nor is it the “absolute zero passage” the market imagines

That is to say, the Strait of Hormuz currently has a significant but controlled level of throughput. Vessels mainly avoid the main shipping lanes and instead use “hidden side channels” near the Iranian coast / near Qeshm Island (little slit near the island of Qeshm and Iran).

Analyst 3 personally observed and photographed oil tankers, including the tanker that passed through the main shipping lane on April 2. The vessels that transited applied for permission to Iran/IRGC through middlemen and paid high transit fees (possibly amounting to several million U.S. dollars, with a preference for RMB payments). This forms a “privatized toll road.”

Conclusion 2: The Strait of Hormuz was not mined

This is one of the most important on-the-ground judgments in Citrini Research’s report “Strait of Hormuz: A Citrini Field Trip,” which is based on Analyst 3’s on-the-ground field research and on-site interviews. Actual vessel transits (including large VLCCs) also directly prove this, overturning part of the market’s/intelligence agencies’ assumptions.

Third: There are huge blind spots in AIS (Automatic Identification System) data and in publicly available vessel transit data

Through on-the-ground field research, Analyst 3 observed that AIS data is missing about half of the actual transiting volume, because many vessels shut down AIS and use “dark” modes or concealed routes.

Wall Street, satellite imagery, and anonymous sources from the Pentagon all rely on previously those incorrect/incomplete pieces of information, leading to a serious underestimation of the Strait of Hormuz’s actual throughput.

Citrini Research’s published report clearly points out: “Everyone is using the same outdated set of satellite images and AIS data, and later it was found that these data are missing about half of the actual transit volume.”

Last week’s A-shares hot topics: optical communications and innovative drugs

1、Top 5 gainers among companies with market caps above 50 billion

2、Top 5 gainers among companies with market caps between 10 and 50 billion

3、Top 5 gainers among companies with market caps below 10 billion

4、Top 10 biggest decliners last week

It’s very clear: the main leaders last week were mainly concentrated in two directions—optical communications (optical fiber) and pharmaceuticals (innovative drugs). The related reasons and logic have been continuously analyzed in recent articles; no more detail here.

FiberHome/Hu(China) Unicom? (Long-Fei Optic Fibre), after upgrading its profit forecasts and target price in the latest research report from Guotai Junan Securities, maintains a “buy” rating with an “increase holdings” recommendation.

The company released its 2025 annual report, with performance growing significantly year over year. In Q4, quarterly gross margin hit a historical high. The company’s forecast for attributable net profit for 2026-2028 is 8.939/10.945/12.66B RMB, corresponding to EPS of 10.80/13.22/15.29 yuan (the prior forecast for 2026-2027 EPS was 3.84/4.49 yuan). Considering the industry average valuation and the company’s position, the trend in optical fiber price increases is evident. It gives 2026 a 35x PE and raises the target price to 377.90 yuan (previous target price was 293.87 yuan), maintaining the “increase holdings” rating.

Regarding innovative drugs, multiple institutions are watching future “multi-billion-dollar” academic conference catalysts:

From late April to June, top academic conferences such as AACR, ASCO (American Society of Clinical Oncology), and EHA (European Hematology Association) are coming one after another. For the innovative drug sector, academic conferences are not only a platform for scientific exchange, but also a core node where clinical data is transformed into “valuation fuel.”

How should investors look at the broader A-share market this week?

Today, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are still closed for trading, while Japanese and Korean stocks have started trading. The Hang Seng Index is up 1.36%, and the Nikkei is up 0.55%.

Looking ahead to April, the strategy is very clear:

If a long-term ceasefire agreement really can be reached, the market may play out a typical “dilemma reversal”行情. If the war continues to stalemate or the U.S. military launches a ground offensive, regardless of whether combat casualties exceed expectations or whether oil prices surge and trigger a deep pullback in global stock markets.

On the main storyline: continue to focus on optical communications, commercial space, and innovative drugs, etc.

1、Optical communications in OCS: 0 to 1

Guosheng Communications: Currently, optical circuit switching (OCS) technology is moving from Google’s exclusive deployment toward becoming the core architecture of AI infrastructure across the entire industry. Breakthrough progress is being achieved across three dimensions: large-scale capabilities, application scenarios, and customer ecosystems. The fundamental reason OCS has become a must-have technology is that traditional OEO electrical switching architectures face bottlenecks. OCS enables a decoupling of power consumption and data rate, nanosecond-level latency, and cross-generation data-rate transparency through all-optical direct connection, making it an architecture-level solution to support higher-power GPU clusters.

Related targets: Tanf(H)o Communication, Tengjing Technology, Deko Li, Optical G(ube) Technology, Juguang Technology, Weiten Electric.

2、Commercial space

Recently, Zhuque 3’s reusable rocket chief designer Zhang Xiaodong of Blue Arrow Aerospace stated at the 2026 Space Computing Power Industry Conference that calculations show that in the next 7 to 10 years, an average of 500 large- and medium-sized launch vehicles per year will be needed to complete the launch and deployment of 220k satellites. At the same time, he disclosed for the first time that Zhuque 3’s Yue 2 rocket’s stage-1 recovery effort in the first half of 2026 will be fully focused, and in the fourth quarter of 2026 it will attempt rocket reuse flight for the first time.

Today, the Artemis 2 mission has already reached its fifth day. Houston Mission Control Center and the Artemis 2 mission team conducted a trajectory correction burn at 11:03 Beijing time on April 7, optimizing the Orion spacecraft’s orbit toward the Moon. Subsequently, at 12:41, the spacecraft entered the Moon’s sphere of influence, and the Moon’s gravity became the main force controlling the Orion spacecraft’s flight trajectory.

U.S.-listed commercial space-related companies have been rising sharply recently, and the pre-market momentum today remains strong.

Meanwhile, A-share commercial space-related companies saw weaker performance on the previous trading day due to the failure of the Tianlong 3 noon launch, but their outlook later is still worth watching.

Attachment: The most important milestone events of the Artemis 2 mission will occur at 4:07 Beijing time on April 7

The following is the detailed schedule:

Beijing time 1:56 ： Orion spacecraft surpasses the distance record of Apollo 13 (248655 miles)

Beijing time 2:45 ： Lunar observation period begins

Beijing time 6:44 ： Expected to lose signal when the Orion spacecraft moves behind the far side of the Moon (about 40 minutes)

Beijing time 7:02 ： Orion spacecraft reaches its closest point at a distance of 4066 miles from the lunar surface

Beijing time 7:07 ： Orion spacecraft reaches the farthest position from Earth (252757 miles)

Beijing time 7:25 ： Orion spacecraft reappears in view from behind the Moon; communications will resume upon emergence

Beijing time 8:35 ： Observation of a solar eclipse; during the eclipse, from the perspective of the crew, the sun will move to behind the Moon

Beijing time 9:20 ： Lunar observation ends

A massive stream of information and precise interpretation—right on the Sina Finance app

责任编辑：郭栩彤