[Red Envelope] 4.3 Review; volume shrank and declined to 1.6 trillion, the market reached a high of six boards. How should we view the post-holiday market trend?

Market again shows a sell-off with shrinking volume. This week has five trading days: on three of them, more than 4,000+ stocks went down; on one day, it turned from weak to strong; and on one day, a strong repair followed by no follow-through the next day. Trading volume also reached what is currently the lowest level. After last year’s holiday black-swan negative news, today’s capital also, out of inertia, is going to “grab the bucket and run.” The whole day the market looked rather sluggish—limit-downs and limit-ups were inverted. The market has returned to a state of near-freezing. After the holiday, will you hold a bullish or bearish stance?[Taoguba]
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In the way you think is most suitable for you, dissect and present your inner world, and then throw it into this noisy reality—so that it can be perceived, thought about, remembered, and recognized in the collision of souls between people—and become the imprint of your spiritual life!**
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1. Market sentiment cycle
2. Market environment, theme execution
   Today the market chose a shrink-volume high open, followed by an unresisting choppy sell-off. By the close it had returned again to 3880. The past Friday and this Monday were two consecutive days of a weak-to-strong turn in the broader market. Left-side capital’s desire to realize gains started to intensify in this week. On Tuesday, the market surged and then fell back—essentially also because profit-taking was starting to be realized. On Wednesday it directly carried out a strong repair. This repair is something everyone understands: it was pushed back by the market environment from outside, not a repair made actively by our market. The data that day was also extremely bleak. Across the entire market, there were only about 50 boards at limit-up. By Thursday, shrink-volume down again started, continuing to return to ice-point data. Throughout the day there were only a bit over 30 limit-ups. Coming to today, it continued “two consecutive ice days,” with the inversion of limit-up and limit-down. The number of limit-downs was more than the number of limit-ups. The “losing money effect” can be said to have continued to amplify. The 3900 level has never been able to stand firm. Many bearish capital started guessing that the index would step on its second foot.

Back to today’s trading picture: after a low-volume, slightly high open, it immediately went into a choppy downtrend. The direction that was trying to repair was commercial aerospace, including “tech broadly.” After these themes opened high in the morning, basically they had no resistance and were gradually realized away, which also caused the index to drift downward. Before 10:00, you could say there basically was no capital willing to take over. For the previously resonant medical sector, the board-high breakthrough actually got cut off, while trend strength was pinned down quite tightly. Most trend stocks at the open simply chose to consolidate and shake. Since the intraday capital couldn’t find a direction, naturally there was no desire to push higher again.

After 10:00, the index pulled back. What resonated was lithography equipment, optical fibers, and so on—other themes had little to offer. The only direction that moved meaningfully in the afternoon was computing power, but near the close the capital also started reducing its expectation for the market—there was a “lying flat” kind of state, matching the condition of pre-holiday capital. Near the close, the medical sector also began to fall back, but Jinyao still sealed the whole day dead tight! At low levels it kept rotating without stopping; at high levels it ran from up to the 6-board down to the 2-board, continuing to show a “gap” pattern. Next week, the main focus is still medical.

2. Index cycle
   The support for this wave of the index is 3800, and this cycle is still starting from 3.24. If afterward 3800 directly breaks down, everyone also needs to pay attention: this cycle might end as well. So everything must have 3800 as the strong support premise. Whether it’s a new cycle in the medical sector or other directions’ subsidiary lines—if 3800 can’t be held, everything afterward will collapse. After the holiday, this will be the first anchor. As long as the index continues to drift lower in consolidation, at this point you need to put risk first and not blindly jump in to buy the consensus again. Today the medical direction shows differentiation—its height is opened by Jinyao, and next week’s trend needs to be strengthened as well, preferably in coordination with the index, so risk will be lower!

New cycle
(1) 3.24 as the start point for the index to stop falling—up to now: style changes appear; board-breaking breakthroughs; trend weakens; after the holiday, if the trend can’t strengthen, then you need to switch.
Trend core: Shuanglu Pharmaceutical, Jinan Healthcare, Wanbangde, Kailaiying, Meinvo. Rotation strengthening is the main theme. In the morning, Meinvo was the strongest. Near the close, Wanbangde and Jinan rotated up and rallied. At low levels, Kailaiying spent the whole day consolidating while staying underwater. The strongest stock all day was Shuanglu Pharmaceutical—also one of the core sources of the sustained resonance in this wave.

Subsidiary theme: commercial aerospace, tech broadly, Strait, sports, etc. Aerospace is diverging; tech broadly is repairing, but it also belongs to “local optical fiber.” Strait and sports both got sold hard.

Old cycle
(2) Power sector: 3.16’s second wave—retreat after 3.27 confirmed the top; the “follow-up support ladder” group peaked at the 3-board, and randomness increased.

2. Core stock analysis
(1) Medical
Ahead of the dragon: Meinvo.
Today, although it actively repaired, because of the reason that the board-breaking move happened, the trend direction for this stock has been rather sluggish. In the earlier positioning given to it, it was a trend stock ahead of the dragon. What this stock needs to do is to pull up every day. If capital can do it for convertible bond arbitrage, then as long as the regular shares get pulled, there is an expectation. It’s also suitable for friends who like to do T. After the holiday, you still need to treat this stock from the angle of rotation. Even though it fell back a lot at the end of the day, it doesn’t mean there is no expectation. As long as you understand where the logic of the capital game for this stock is, that’s enough!

Emotion core: Jinyao Pharmaceutical
The main controller keeps eating alone continuously, but once it breaks out, it gives the market an extremely high boost in terms of “market height.” It’s also one of the emotional small-cap stocks of this sustained resonance. Earlier it was said that this wave should prioritize looking at height. The trend is a “clear-market” style of capital. Height is a “surprise/expectation-gap” type. Unfortunately, Jinyao Pharmaceutical didn’t manage to create divergence for the market to form a collective effort. Going forward, you need to watch the capital’s attitude! If it’s going to run a “flow” wave, then most likely a single-board break (断板) would be a sell-off. But the divergence in the medical direction at the end of today was not small. Next week, it still needs to pass and push into a “board-up and drive repairs” situation for the sector to work.

Trend core: Shuanglu Pharmaceutical
This portion of capital was carved out to the mold of HuaDian Energy. The走势 is basically following HuaDian Energy’s path. Now the turning point of this stock looks more like HuaDian Energy’s turning point on 3.16. Since it’s a trend, then the next anchoring point is the 5-day line. The first touch is a key focus. There isn’t much worth analyzing from a short-term perspective—just do a good job with the anchor.

Trend core: Wanbangde
In yesterday’s post-close review, it was discussed that this stock needs to control deviation from its value. But judging from the intraday tape, most of the capital is still doing T inside it. Near the close, affected by sector divergence, there was also a wave of a small-level sell-off, but the impact is not big. In the short term, it also still needs to rely on the 5-day line. For trend stocks overall, going forward you should pay more attention to board-up height. If board-ups keep pushing higher, it might cap the trend’s strength. But personally, I think more often than not, trend board-ups will be strengthened together. Wanbangde is the anchor among trend stocks.

Trend core: Kailaiying, Jiuan Healthcare
Kailaiying’s positioning is actually easy to understand. Going forward, if the sector has expectations, then when high-position Wanbangde runs out of steam, capital will choose to switch. From an objective standpoint, when considering the medical sector, the trend-driven profit effect is still greater than the board-up effect. Even if board-ups appear to have reached the 6-board, in reality they haven’t been tested by the market’s collective strength. After the trend core runs out of steam, there is a probability it switches into a “recognition-clarity trend” and then runs another wave. Jiuan Healthcare is also just something to anchor on the 5-day line!

Elastic rotation: Laimeiyao, old dragon Shutaishen—oscillation; and Linuo Pharmaceutical—after a sell-off, it rebounds.

3. Sector analysis

1. Medical. In the current stage, medical is one of the most valuable directions in the market. If there is any “plunge” during trading, in reality that is a point to buy divergence and watch closely. Over these two days, the sell-off has been pretty extreme, but if you look carefully, you’ll find that in medical there isn’t an overly outrageous “losing money effect.” Only stocks that haven’t built recognition/visibility have had their expectations cut by the market. The sell-offs were also mainly last year’s old dragons, so they don’t have much impact on the sector. Look at what’s new, not what’s old. This is an aesthetic you must possess for short-term trading. First-board medical continues to provide support; the elasticity also rotates every day to pull up a stock to fill out the ladder. The key points after Qingming (1) trend repair (2) collective strength from high positions. After the holiday, for high-position moves it’s required to experience market testing: whether it’s continued selling or continues to be underpinned. Just wait and see!

4. Holiday thought question
Using the medical direction as an example: what different impacts does the broader market moving up or moving down have on the sector, and what do the respective hype paths look like?
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5. This week’s approach**
Taking advantage of today being Friday—tomorrow is also Qingming holiday time—summarize the thinking for this week. About the medical direction:
(1) In the early stage, when the broader market stopped falling on 3.24, this was where attention was drawn to a timing “card node” opportunity. The previous wave of Meinvo wasn’t focused on in time, mainly due to market-environment factors. Missing some core parts during each wave’s main rise is normal—after all, the market is dynamic and it can’t simply move purely according to your expectations. I believe everyone can understand that environment at the time.
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(2) And this week, combining the data from the broader market: out of five trading days, three days saw more than 4,300 stocks decline. Today, near the close, the number of declining stocks reached 4,700. Ignoring the medical direction, if you’re not a “dragon-summoner” who picks winners by the dragon strategy and instead chose to participate in other directions, then this week’s losing-money effect was explosive. Even if the market repaired on Wednesday, whether you could take away profits on Thursday—those are all unknown. From a hindsight perspective, staying in cash and not acting is still the most correct choice.**
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(3) Returning to the essence of the medical direction: why are the participation points so blurry? This week it was analyzed for everyone every day. What counts as certainty is to base it on the market’s collective strength. Looking back at the medical direction, most of the core stocks follow a “keep eating alone” style. Also, for dragon-summoner vs dragon—using the market’s absolute core as the anchor: for the buy point of Jinyao Pharmaceutical, then on 3.31 Meinvo sold off. Even the mid-cap stock somehow acted on its own and didn’t participate—remember, Meinvo is positioned ahead of the dragon. At this time, the internal capital for this logic has basically been fixed as the controlling “boss/handler.” The next day had no buy point. Then on 4.1 the market went into repair. The ladder gap became a “clear by itself” situation, with explosive-volume expectations. Once you make a mistake on a buy point like that, it starts from 10% moves. vita would definitely not go for it. On the 4-to-5 board, the market fever got too high and it topped out with a straight one-price board. Today it gave the expectation of a high-volume turnover exchange, but the timing window basically didn’t give any chance. Overall, there wasn’t even a thought of missing the run on this stock. A true dragon must go through market divergence and keep eating alone—participating has a half-and-half odds, with luck accounting for more than half. It’s better for me to just buy a lottery ticket.**
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No trade this week—keep looking forward!**
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Even with the whole market full of commotion, I keep to myself and act alone, waiting as the norm—quietly waiting for the true dragon to dawn!**

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