The "hidden tax burden" caused by the Iran-U.S. war is beginning to affect American businesses and ordinary consumers.

Key Takeaways

As the U.S.-Iran conflict, a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and a surge in oil prices continue, they are squeezing businesses’ operations across the entire value chain and increasing the cost of living for the public.

This week, diesel and jet fuel prices have skyrocketed, and Amazon and JetBlue have announced fuel surcharges one after another.

Experts call it an “invisible tax” levied on consumers, but many American small and midsize businesses simply have no ability to pass these costs on to customers.

The co-founder of a “college student junk removal and relocation company” in Tampa, Florida, Nick Friedman, said that businesses today are trapped in multiple operational dilemmas: high mortgage rates drag down the real estate market, and rising insurance premiums steadily erode operating costs; now they’re also hit by the U.S.-Iran war and a wild spike in diesel prices, which has drastically squeezed profit margins, yet they dare not raise prices.

“We’re in a deadlock situation,” Friedman said. “Once we raise prices, we’ll lose customers.”

He added that fees charged by large companies can still be accepted by the market; now, with fuel costs rising across the board, many large companies have already adjusted their prices ahead of time.

This week, United Airlines and JetBlue increased baggage handling fees in the U.S.; Amazon announced it will charge platform sellers a 3.5% fuel surcharge.

Amazon said this surcharge is far lower than that of other major logistics companies. JetBlue said that as operating costs rise, the company will continue to evaluate cost-control plans—keeping its competitiveness in base fares while also continuing to optimize passengers’ travel experience.

But for small and midsize businesses like Friedman’s, there is no room for a comfortable price adjustment. “Passengers have no choice—they have to fly to travel; but moving services are different.”

He explained that consumers can absolutely choose moving companies with lower prices and weaker coverage, or even ask friends with pickup trucks to help move. This is causing the idle rate of his company’s 2,000 freight trucks to keep rising; but even if vehicles are taken out of service, topping up with fuel is still a huge expense.

Friedman said that previously, fuel spending accounted for only 3%–5% of company revenue; after the war began, it doubled directly, rising to 6%–10%. The company uses a franchise model, with more than 200 stores nationwide; now many franchisees are also陷入经营危机.

Although the freight industry is hit most directly by the war, the negative impact of higher diesel and jet fuel prices will quickly spread to every sector.

Dikean Vanderboft, chief investment officer at Wantong Huili Wealth, pointed out: “Consumption downgrades often start with non-essential spending, and people cut what’s optional first.”

He analyzed that higher energy prices are, in essence, a hidden tax on everyone and will be passed through to all goods and services. If the conflict ends in the short term, people can still use their savings to get through the price surge; if the conflict becomes long-term, reduced consumption and economic slowdown will quickly become apparent.

Previously, the market widely expected that President Trump’s nationwide address would reveal a ceasefire plan, but his remarks were vague and did not clearly state a timeline for a ceasefire, leaving market confidence in ongoing turmoil.

Unlike the economic crises of the Great Depression and the COVID-19 pandemic, the support policies the government can roll out today are very limited. Vanderboft said bluntly: “There won’t be another round of strong policies like during COVID that provide backstop support to save the market.”

The Federal Reserve is also stuck between two difficult choices. Given the risk of inflation rebounding, the central bank has no plan to cut rates to stimulate the economy; in the initial phase of the oil price surge, the market even predicted that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates. However, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said this week that there is no necessity to raise rates: short-term oil price volatility, historically, has never been factored into long-term inflation considerations, and the market’s long-term inflation expectations remain stable.

Price increases across the entire industry

The U.S. economy is highly dependent on consumption. Consumer spending supports nearly two-thirds of the economy’s size, and where people choose to spend money directly determines the direction of the economy. Vanderboft added that compared with the oil crisis in the 1970s, America’s reliance on crude oil imports has been reduced significantly, which provides a buffer—but only to a limited extent in easing the shock.

Hermann Neuwoit, president of the energy and resources business at an international financial system, said directly: “Any industry that uses fuel will face持续叠加的 cost pressure, and almost no industry can escape it.”

He emphasized that what’s happening is not just a one-time price shock: “This is the most severe energy supply disruption in modern history, layered with six years of structural volatility in the industry. Price increases will gradually transmit to manufacturing, packaging, agriculture, logistics, and retail; only after a few months will the negative impacts fully become visible.”

Companies that can anticipate risks in advance, adjust operations in real time, and flexibly allocate funds can get through the crisis smoothly; companies that simply add surcharges without optimizing their own efficiency will ultimately be unable to continue, and within one to two quarters will be forced by customers and the market to整改 and revise.

For consumers, the pressure from rising oil prices is felt first—but that is only the beginning: airfares, fresh groceries, package delivery shipping fees, and industrial goods prices will all continue to rise.

Economists say the already-divided K-shaped economy will be further exacerbated: in essential-demand industries such as aviation and auto repair, big players like JetBlue and Amazon have ample room to raise prices; while small and midsize businesses and non-essential service sectors are stuck between two difficult choices—raising prices means losing customers, while not raising prices means losing profits.

Airfare increases were already expected. A few weeks ago, the CEO of Delta Air Lines, Ed Bastian, disclosed that current travel demand is strong and that after oil prices rise, there is reasonable room for airfares to increase. The CEO of United Airlines, Scott Kirby, also said in early March that prices will inevitably be raised to cover fuel costs.

Federico Bandey, professor of economics at Johns Hopkins University’s Carey Business School, said: “American consumers are resilient, but this crisis is still severe.”

The aviation industry relies on essential demand and doesn’t worry about raising prices, but other industries don’t have that kind of cushion. Bandey found that people’s consumption is shifting from non-essential spending to essential spending, and within essential categories, they are increasingly favoring cheaper generic brands and giving up big-name products.

“When companies continue to pass massive energy costs onto consumers for the long term, it simply cannot be sustained. When oil prices later fall, whether companies can cut prices in tandem will directly affect consumers’ confidence and choices.”

Fernando Lozano, a professor of economics at Pomona College, added that issues such as tariffs, government shutdowns, and rising medical costs have already exhausted people’s patience; now, adding various new surcharges has sparked very strong consumer resistance.

The logistics industry is set to face a tough test: consumers will have to choose between “high-price, expedited delivery” and “low-price, delayed receipt.”

Josh Stannitz, chief strategy officer at Octane, a logistics fulfillment software company, said bluntly: “The era of free-shipping fast delivery is coming to an end. This crisis forces the industry to rebuild its rules. In the future, logistics will return to a model of ‘paying for timing efficiency—paying for value.’” Today, both merchants and consumers are starting to face the real cost of getting products delivered to their door.

The U.S. Postal Service also announced it will add an 8% surcharge to packages and express deliveries.

Stannitz calls fuel surcharges the “volatility tax” for the logistics industry: “Large enterprises can use this fee to hedge against oil price risk; but for small and micro businesses, each order costs extra money, and there is no way to fully avoid it. This fee buffers risk for large enterprises, but it is a straightforward, hard loss for small merchants.”

In the end, both businesses and consumers are trapped in a dilemma.

Friedman recalled that in the early days of the Great Depression, he and his friends started a moving company with an old truck and made it through the tough times by relying on sheer grit. Now his company has 2,000 freight trucks to fuel, with no room to adjust profits and pricing—everything is completely different from the past.

**　　“Right now, all Americans are under pressure.”**

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责任编辑：李桐