Orders are scheduled into next year, and energy storage battery cells are surging across the board. The leading company with net profits soaring 447% has a revenue of 800 billion.

By | Fei Xingyi, Intern Reporter Lin Qianwei

Editor | Zhang Xing, Jiang Peixia

The fiercely hot global energy storage market is turning battery cells into an unprecedentedly scarce commodity.

A reporter from 21st Century Business Herald learned through interviews on multiple fronts that, at present, China’s domestic energy storage battery cell production capacity has fully entered a state of supply falling short of demand. The scheduling of energy storage battery cell orders at leading companies has already been booked until the end of Q1 2027. Meanwhile, the spot price of battery cells has rebounded sharply from the 2025 low, and pricing power within the industry has reversed.

At the same time, driven by the catalyzing effects of supply-and-demand gaps, China’s domestic energy storage battery cell segment has kicked off another round of capacity expansion boom. Multiple companies have released large-scale expansion plans. However, industry sources interviewed by reporters warned that companies should be wary of oversupply risks after concentrated capacity release. A rush-style irrational expansion not only risks repeating the cyclical old path of the new energy industry, but may also cause quality and compliance problems triggered by low-price price wars, damaging China’s global reputation in the energy storage industry.

Driven by high industry momentum, according to incomplete statistics from CNESA DataLink’s global energy storage database compiled by Securities Times · Data Gu, based on 2025 annual reports, performance express reports, and the lower bound of forecast net profit (if no lower bound exists, then use the announced figure), there are 23 energy storage concept stocks whose net profit in 2025 grew year over year (including turning losses into profits). Driven by high industry momentum, among 23 A-share energy storage leading stocks, their performance achieved high growth. Of them, Lead Intelligent’s net profit grew 447% year over year. Four companies turned losses into profits: Enjie Co., Ltd., Tsingsan? Actually “Shanshan Co., Ltd.” (rights protection), Penghui Energy, and Goodwe.

The global energy storage market has entered a breakout phase

“Currently, Vision’s energy storage battery cells—orders in hand—remain continuously full for production scheduling. All battery cell bases worldwide are operating under high-load conditions.” Tian Qingjun, Senior Vice President of the company, said directly in an interview with reporters that the current tightness between supply and demand in the energy storage battery cell market has already exceeded the industry’s expectations.

This tightness propagates across the entire industrial chain. Reporters learned that since the second half of last year, the market has seen extreme situations where system integrators prepay cash in advance to lock in battery cell capacity—only seeking to ensure delivery.

Price fluctuations in the energy storage battery cell spot market also intuitively reflect the reversal of the industry landscape. In mid-2025, the price of energy storage battery cells fell to a low of 0.24 yuan/Wh, while the typical transaction price was only 0.26–0.27 yuan/Wh. As of early 2026, industry insiders said that quotations of 0.37–0.38 yuan/Wh have made it difficult to obtain battery cell spot supply.

In less than a year, the energy storage battery cell segment has shifted from the past “buyer’s market” to a “seller’s market.”

Reporters learned that the formation of the current supply-and-demand gap in energy storage battery cells results from multiple factors—demand, policy, costs, and supply—working together, and that within the short term it is difficult to see fundamental relief.

From the demand side, the global energy storage market has entered a breakout phase, and demand from both home and abroad is resonating. In overseas markets, Europe’s energy storage market has shifted from the prior single-point breakout in the United Kingdom to common growth across all subregions including Northern Europe, Southern Europe, and Western Europe. Large-scale storage markets in countries such as Germany, France, and Spain have ramped up comprehensively. In Australia, demand surged rapidly over the past year under the stimulus of subsidy policies. In the U.S., driven by the construction of AIDC computing power centers, the urgency for power equipment has increased, and the overall international market is in a state of orders outstripping supply.

The catalytic effect of policy is also significant. Starting in April 2026, China’s battery export VAT rebate policy will gradually be phased down. Since 90% of the world’s energy storage battery cells are supplied by China, the cancellation of the VAT rebate will directly raise the construction costs of overseas projects, triggering a concentrated scramble for installations in global markets. Many overseas projects will lock in sources of supply in advance, pulling forward and concentrating supply-chain demand in the short term.

On the other side, sustained cost increases have become the core underlying support for battery cell price rises, further intensifying market stockpiling behavior and capacity-locking behavior.

Industry insiders worked out a quick calculation for reporters: if battery-grade lithium carbonate rises by 10k yuan/ton, battery cell costs increase by about 0.006 yuan/Wh. At present, the price of lithium carbonate has climbed from 70k yuan/ton to 170k yuan/ton. Even considering lithium carbonate alone, it has pushed up battery cell costs by more than 0.06 yuan/Wh. Coupled with synchronized increases in other key raw material prices such as copper, aluminum, and electrolytes, from 2025 to date, the overall comprehensive cost of energy storage battery cells has cumulatively risen by 0.08–0.1 yuan/Wh.

It is worth noting that the market transmission of this round’s battery cell price increases has also created differentiation in Chinese companies’ overseas expansion strategies.

Customers in overseas Europe and North America are less sensitive to price and place more emphasis on equipment reliability, long-term service support, and compliance credentials. Price transmission is therefore relatively smooth, and project gross margins are significantly higher than in China. Markets such as the Middle East and India are extremely cost-sensitive, and price transmission is harder to achieve. Currently, many large-scale storage players have exited the Middle East market, and industry capacity is tilting preferentially toward high-gross-margin markets in Europe and North America. At the same time, industry contract pricing mechanisms are also undergoing a comprehensive adjustment: the fixed-price model that was previously widely used is shifting toward a raw-materials-linked pricing model to respond to upstream cost fluctuation risks.

A wave of capacity expansion by leading companies

In fact, rigid constraints on the supply side make it difficult for the supply-and-demand gap to be filled in the short term.

Reporters learned that from upstream raw-material matching to downstream production line construction being implemented at battery cell factories, the complete cycle previously required at least one year. In the short term, capacity cannot quickly match the market’s surge in demand, resulting in a rigid mismatch between supply and demand.

However, under the sustained supply-and-demand gap and expectations of profit improvement, China’s domestic energy storage battery cell sector has kicked off a new round of capacity expansion. Leading companies are stepping up their capacity deployment, while also focusing on building high-end differentiated capacity to avoid low-end homogenous competition.

Since 2026, domestic large-capacity energy storage battery cells have entered a dense commissioning period. For example, Vision Power’s 790Ah—said to be the world’s largest wound energy storage battery cell—was put into production at the beginning of this year, and is scheduled to be commissioned in mid-2026 at the company’s Hebei Cangzhou Phase II project and its Hubei Yichang Phase I project. Ningde Times’ 587Ah cells achieved mass production in June 2025. By end-2025, the company completed 2GWh shipments, and new production lines in multiple places including Chengdu and Luoyang are expected to be commissioned densely in 2026. Chuangneng New Energy’s 588Ah cells—its 80GWh project in Yichang—is expected to be completed and commissioned in August 2026. Pengcheng Infinity’s large-cell project in Yibin started construction in February 2026.

Ganfeng Lithium Battery is also accelerating its capacity switch to large cells. Company senior technical engineer Zhang Wei introduced that Ganfeng Lithium Battery is currently one of the few manufacturers in China capable of mass-producing large cells. The company is pushing forward a capacity shift from 314Ah cells to 588Ah large cells.

“The company itself has lithium ore resources such as spodumene, so it has a cost advantage in battery cell production. Therefore, our product pricing is more competitive than peers.” Zhang Wei said. Battery cell prices are influenced by lithium carbonate prices. Previously, when lithium carbonate rose, battery cell prices also followed upward, following the normal market transmission mechanism. Even if the company has mineral resources, it still needs to adjust in line with market price fluctuations. Although prices will rise, the company can still maintain a certain overall advantage.

Concerns about irrational expansion begin to surface

The underlying fundamentals of rapid industry growth provide a base layer support for companies to expand capacity. According to CNESA DataLink’s global energy storage database, based on incomplete statistics, China’s newly added capacity for new-type energy storage has ranked first globally for four consecutive years. By the end of 2025, China had accumulated 213.3GW of grid-connected power storage projects put into operation, accounting for 43.0% of the global total market scale, a year-on-year increase of 54%.

However, today’s persistently tight supply-and-demand landscape also hides oversupply concerns from the concentrated release of future capacity. Multiple interviewees emphasized that the industry’s current rapid expansion trend is not sustainable, and companies must be wary of multiple risks caused by a rush to expand capacity.

InfoLink’s judgment for the 2026 energy storage battery cell market supply-and-demand landscape is “tight balance in the first half, moderately loose in the second half.” GGII expects that in March 2026, 500Ah+ cells will have achieved large-scale mass production and deliveries. It expects that the penetration rate of 500Ah+ large-capacity cells in the energy storage market will rise rapidly in 2026, becoming the mainstream selection for both domestic and overseas large-scale storage projects.

From the perspective of industry impact, large-capacity battery cell capacity will be released in the second half of 2026, which will effectively ease the current tight balance between supply and demand in battery cells. But companies must also be wary of structural oversupply risks caused by concentrated commissioning.

Tian Qingjun said that Vision’s own capacity planning and execution schedule has always revolved around high-quality customers and orders. “The tightness in battery cell supply and demand is real. Capacity expansion by companies is reasonable. The key is what kind of capacity to expand, what kind of customers to serve, and what kind of market to go after. Instead of pursuing maximum scale, it’s better to lock in long-term strategic customers, match high-value scenarios, and ensure that every production line has a clear destination for delivery. Only through rational capacity layout can we get through the cycle.”

Beyond the core risk of excess capacity, multiple hidden risks behind high-speed industry expansion are even more worth watching.

On the quality and safety front, large-scale fire-testing experiments have become a standardized threshold for overseas large-scale storage project delivery and financing. Low-price “involution” may lead companies to sacrifice product quality and safety standards. Multiple industry insiders warned that if a single enterprise were to experience a serious safety incident at an overseas energy storage power station, it would directly affect China’s overall reputation and overseas market entry qualifications for the entire energy storage industry.

Tian Qingjun warned that overseas fulfillment conditions are extremely strict. Once there are delivery and fulfillment problems, it is not only a fatal blow to the enterprise itself, but also harms the overall industry image of China’s energy storage companies. Meanwhile, most mainstream overseas energy storage projects require signing long-term service agreements for 15–20 years. Most domestic companies do not have practical experience in ultra-long-term operations and maintenance in overseas markets. Aggressive low-price quotations may plant major hidden risks for future operations and maintenance costs and compensation for fulfillment claims.

“Chinese energy storage industry entrepreneurs still need to raise their standpoint. Don’t treat going global merely as a business.” Tian Qingjun called for companies to change their positioning, with the goal of enabling local energy’s green, low-carbon, and low-cost transition. By integrating into the local industrial ecosystem and helping with local industrial chain and talent development, international cooperation carried out on these principles will ensure stability and long-term success in the process of going global, and protect China’s energy storage industry’s global core competitiveness, using new energy to create global new prosperity.