Wall Street analysts warn: if the war continues until the end of June, Brent crude could rise to $200 per barrel

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Source: Caixin Global

Caixin Global March 31 (Editor Liu Rui) With the Iran war shock, international oil prices this month are expected to set the largest month-over-month increase in history.

And in a report, strategists at Macquarie Group warned that if the Iran conflict lasts into the end of June, and the Strait of Hormuz remains basically under a shipping embargo, Brent crude could surge to $200 per barrel, thereby pushing U.S. gasoline prices up to about $7 per gallon.

Could Brent crude jump to $200 per barrel?

In its report, the team led by Peter Taylor (Peter Taylor), a strategist at Macquarie, laid out two scenario forecasts for the outlook of the oil market.

Among them, in the more likely case (probability 60%), the Iran war would end soon, with prices rapidly falling from the current level near $108 per barrel, and economic damage would be kept under control.

But in the second scenario (Macquarie assesses its probability at 40%), the Iran war could last longer, and its disruptive effect on the market would be far more lasting. The consequences are described by the strategists as “unprecedented”—in this scenario, oil prices could rise to $200 per barrel or even higher.

“Although the global economy’s dependence on oil is now far lower than it was 50 years ago, if this situation continues, we would not be surprised to see oil prices reach historic highs (above $200) and stay there for a period of time.”

This concern was echoed by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi (Abdel Fattah al-Sisi,). At an energy conference in Cairo, he warned that supply disruptions and price increases could push oil prices above $200 per barrel—he specifically emphasized that this forecast is grounded in reality and by no means exaggerated.

The scale of global oil supply disruptions is already massive

Currently, the scale of supply disruptions in the oil market is already quite staggering. Because the Strait of Hormuz is basically closed, Macquarie estimates that by the end of March, about 13% of global oil production has been forced to shut in—an impact that already exceeds the peak of the 1970s oil crisis or the Gulf War. In 2025, the world consumes nearly 105 million barrels per day of oil and related products.

Although emergency reserves held by member countries of the International Energy Agency (more than 1.2 billion barrels) can provide some buffering, strategists note that these reserves can only be released slowly. Some countries in Asia are already facing physical shortages of diesel and jet fuel.

The strategists wrote: “If the strait remains closed for a longer period of time, oil prices must rise to a level sufficient to disrupt the huge global oil demand.”

Global economy at risk of slipping into recession

If oil prices reach $200 per barrel, the Macquarie analysts’ team expects related discussions to quickly shift toward a global economic recession. At that time, the world’s economic growth rate would fall by about one percentage point compared with 2025. Central banks around the world would face a stagflation environment—weak economic growth alongside high inflation, which is reminiscent of the situation in the 1970s.

According to Macquarie Bank, in the U.S., the Federal Reserve would face nearly zero or negative employment growth, alongside a backdrop of persistent price increases.

That said, the strategists believe that a full-blown global economic recession is not entirely unavoidable, partly because governments may step in to subsidize energy costs. Several countries have already taken such measures—Japan and Italy have moved in that direction.

Overall, however, Macquarie Bank’s baseline forecast remains that the various parties will reach a solution relatively quickly. Because there is a risk that about 15% of global oil supply could be interrupted indefinitely, the economic incentives to strike an agreement are enormous. The strategists said: “It is precisely this real-world factor that supports our view that an agreement must ultimately be reached.”

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