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Bitcoin demand remains weak, with a short-term rebound relying on ETF support
CryptoQuant data shows that institutional buying of Bitcoin has recently approached historical highs, with ETFs and Strategy accumulating approximately 94k coins combined over the past 30 days. However, the overall market net demand remains at -63k coins, while other participants have sold as many as 157k coins. Whales have shifted from the largest buyers to aggressive selling, with 18-month holding fluctuations nearing 400k coins; mid-level holders are significantly slowing their accumulation. BTC spot prices are currently trading at a 21% premium over realized prices, not yet signaling a true bottom, as the premium is rapidly narrowing. Market sentiment is deeply entrenched in extreme panic, diverging from institutional capital inflows. This round of retracement is about 47%, with volatility narrowing compared to historical cycles. The bottom is entirely dependent on ETF support, and overall demand remains weak.