Iran, Major Warning! Suddenly surging sharply! Two pieces of news trigger an explosion, oil prices soar 12%!

Against the backdrop of an escalation in the situation in Iran, oil prices surge again!

In the evening of April 2, Beijing time, international oil prices continued to climb. As of the time of this report, WTI crude oil futures are up more than 12%, with prices breaking above $112 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures are up over 8%, with prices nearing $110 per barrel.

Market analysts said two pieces of news boosted oil prices sharply: first, in his latest speech, U.S. President Trump did not mention details about restarting the Strait of Hormuz, and said U.S. forces would carry out extremely fierce strikes against Iran within the next two to three weeks. Second, Reuters reported that Russia is about to cut oil production because attacks by Ukraine on Russia’s port infrastructure, pipelines, and refineries have reduced its export capacity by 1 million barrels per day, accounting for one-fifth of total capacity.

As for the latest updates on the situation in Iran, Iran said it launched the 90th-wave strike operation of “True Promise-4,” resulting in dozens of U.S. personnel killed and injured. Also, according to a report from Iranian media on April 2, a senior commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps special forces died in an attack on April 1. In addition, Iran said that multiple targets in the Karajieqimeye region were hit, including a bridge that was struck. It is understood that the bridge is one of the region’s important bridges.

Iran launches its 90th-wave strike operation

According to CCTV News, on April 2, local time, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement saying that it carried out the 90th-wave strike operation of “True Promise-4,” launching attacks on steel and aluminum industry facilities related to the United States in the region.

The statement said the current operation was carried out after Iranian industrial facilities were attacked. The Iranian side said that although warnings had been issued that if related attacks occurred again, strikes would be made on Israel and U.S. industrial facilities in the region, the other side ignored the warnings and launched attacks on Iran’s steel industry.

The statement also said that in this operation, the Revolutionary Guard Corps carried out strikes on multiple targets, including U.S. steel and metal industrial facilities in Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates, U.S. aluminum facilities in Bahrain, facilities related to the Israeli defense contractor Rafael, and U.S. bases near Manama, Bahrain.

The statement emphasized that this operation caused dozens of American personnel to be killed and injured, and that the affected areas were sealed off by security forces, while ambulances continued to transport the injured. The U.S. side has made no response regarding the casualties.

The Iranian side said the strike was a warning: if attacks on Iranian industrial facilities happen again, the next response would be more severe, targeting Israel’s infrastructure and the U.S.’s economic facilities in the region.

Separately, according to a report by Franceinfo Télévisions’ Radio 4 commercial radio channel, French President Emmanuel Macron, who is visiting South Korea, said on April 2 that it is “unrealistic” to “liberate” the Strait of Hormuz through military action. Macron also responded to former U.S. President Trump’s earlier accusations, reiterating that the military actions against Iran are “unilateral decisions” by the United States and Israel, not France’s actions.

Trump’s Iran television address is criticized as containing multiple inaccuracies

According to Xinhua News Agency, on the evening of April 1, U.S. President Trump delivered a nationwide televised address regarding the war involving Iran. The Associated Press said Trump’s speech contained multiple inaccuracies.

Inaccuracy one: the Iranian regime has been replaced

Trump claimed that regime change in Iran is not the goal of the United States, but at the same time he also said that “regime change in Iran has already taken place.”

After Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and multiple senior military and political officials were killed in U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran on February 28, Khamenei’s son, Mujtaba, was nominated as the new Supreme Leader. Richard Haass, honorary chairman of the board of the Council on Foreign Relations, said prospects for the U.S. to achieve regime change in Iran are growing increasingly dim.

Inaccuracy two: no need for Middle East oil

Trump claimed: “We don’t depend on the Middle East at all anymore, but we still help them. We wouldn’t have to go. We don’t need their oil.”

Sam Orie, an energy analyst at the University of Chicago, said that oil is a commodity traded on global markets; “any disruption to supply in any region will affect global oil prices.”

Since the outbreak of the war among the U.S., Israel, and Iran, the U.S. benchmark crude oil price has risen by more than 50%. Data released by the American Automobile Association on March 31 showed that the average price of regular gasoline across the United States rose to $4.02 per gallon, the highest in nearly four years.

Inaccuracy three: the United States has no inflation

Trump said that the Biden administration has left the United States “listless and struggling,” while his government has turned America into a “most prosperous” country in the world that has “no inflation.”

The Associated Press said that in 2024, the last year of President Biden’s term, the U.S. domestic GDP growth rate was higher than in 2025. Regarding inflation, data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that this year, in February, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.4% year on year, still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% policy target.

Inaccuracy four: record-high U.S. investment

In his speech, Trump claimed that since taking office, the United States has attracted “record” investment totaling more than $1.8 trillion.

The White House website’s latest data shows that since Trump’s second term began, the United States has actually attracted about $1.05 trillion in investment, part of which were investment commitments made during Biden’s term. The Associated Press, citing a study released in January this year, questioned more than $180k in investment commitments made by some U.S. trade partners last year, including whether these investments would truly materialize and where the money would go, among other issues.

Inaccuracy five: Obama gave Iran a huge amount of money

In his speech, Trump again mentioned that former President Obama gave Iran “$1.7 billion in cash.”

The Associated Press reported that Trump had stated it this way during his first presidential term as well, but this was not a gift from the U.S. side—it was repayment of old debts owed by Iran. In the 1970s, Iran paid the United States $400 million to purchase military equipment; later, due to changes in Iran’s political situation, the order was not delivered. After the 2015 Iran nuclear deal was reached, the United States decided to repay Iran $400 million in principal and $1.3 billion in interest.

Formatting: Wang Yunpeng

Proofreading: Pan Da