The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in June has risen to 97.5% after the non-farm payrolls report.

MeNews · 2026-04-04T16:32:22+00:00

The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in April is only 0.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is as high as 99.5%. The chance of a rate cut by June has decreased to 2.0%, with a 97.5% chance of holding rates steady.

MeNews

2026-04-04 16:32:22

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ME News message, April 3 (UTC+8), according to CME “FedWatch”: the probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points in April is 0.5%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 99.5%, and both are the same as before the announcement. The probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by a cumulative 25 basis points by June is 2.0% (before the announcement was 7.8%), the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 97.5% (before the announcement was 91.7%), and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 0.5% (the same as before the announcement). (Source: ODAILY)

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