Analysis: Non-farm data still shows significant volatility, and the Federal Reserve's policy adjustment threshold remains quite high.

MeNews · 2026-04-04T16:24:22+00:00

Creditsights' Zachary Griffiths pointed out that the data is highly volatile and frequently revised, making it difficult to obtain clear policy signals from recent net data. The Federal Reserve may remain on the sidelines with high thresholds, and future rate hikes will be challenging while the likelihood of rate cuts remains low.

MeNews

2026-04-04 16:24:22

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ME News, on April 3 (UTC+8), Creditsights investment-grade credit head Zachary Griffiths said that the data is still likely to be revised further downward. In February, it was reduced by 133,000, which indicates that the data has clear volatility and frequent revisions. Usually, it will be revised again during the annual review. Therefore, it is difficult to obtain a clear signal from the net data over the past few months. As for the Fed’s policy based on these data, for now, the threshold for any policy adjustment is very high. I think they may be in a wait-and-see mode, especially as we see employment data come in far above expectations—well above the Fed’s discussion of the breakeven level of gains and losses associated with the unemployment rate. Therefore, we believe the threshold for a rate hike is higher than that for a rate cut, but policy is likely to remain unchanged in the foreseeable future, and today’s report undoubtedly further reinforces this view. (Jin10 (Source: ODAILY))

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