CITIC Construction Investment: Investment prospects in the commercial space industry

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CITIC Securities Research

The future of commercial aerospace is starry seas. Both China and the U.S. place commercial aerospace at an extremely high strategic level. The “15th Five-Year Plan” first proposed “aeronautics and astronautics power,” and subsequent policy implementation details were released in dense succession, supporting the development of the commercial aerospace industry from both industrial and capital perspectives. The industry development has entered a fast track.

Subsequent catalysts will come in a concentrated wave. As market risk appetite stabilizes and repairs, we expect further performance for the commercial aerospace sector. CITIC Securities’ defense and new materials team and the computer team have released 【Commercial Aerospace Industry—Investment Opportunity Outlook】:

Commercial aerospace 2026 investment strategy: Starry seas, the turning point has arrived

Outlook on ten major industrial trends in commercial aerospace

The “15th Five-Year Plan” proposes developing the aeronautics and astronautics industry—focus on opportunities for investments converting from military to civilian

Policy support for AI + aerospace; GTC is about to be held

Global commercial aerospace activities in 2025 hit new highs again—focus on satellite internet and reusable rocket investment opportunities

Commercial aerospace series report 3: Satellite communications are expected to accelerate development

Commercial aerospace series report 2: A look at the path of overseas commercial aerospace development

Commercial aerospace in-depth report 1: From stars to the road—leading a new era

01 Commercial aerospace 2026 investment strategy: Starry seas, the turning point has arrived

The future of commercial aerospace is starry seas, and both China and the U.S. place commercial aerospace at an extremely high strategic level. SpaceX leads in areas such as star-constellation deployment progress, rocket lift capacity and costs, revenue scale, and valuation scale. Driven by the strategic value of frequency-and-orbit rights protection as well as the commercial value of operating services, our country’s policies jointly support the development of commercial aerospace from both the industrial side and the capital market side. Domestic development shows an accelerating catch-up trend. Large reusable rockets are set to conduct dense maiden flights, which is expected to gradually unblock core industry bottlenecks and accelerate the achievement of a closed-loop model in the commercial aerospace industry. We are optimistic about the commercial aerospace sector’s subsequent performance. In the satellite segment, we will mainly focus on payload overall scope, antennas and supporting components, laser communication terminals and supporting components, and solar arrays and related energy systems. In the rocket segment, we will mainly focus on engines and their 3D printing, and related rocket airframe structural components. In the ground equipment segment, we will mainly focus on civilian terminals and direct-to-mobile related items. In the operations and services segment, we will mainly focus on companies with rare qualifications.

1. From a strategic significance perspective, both China and the U.S. elevate commercial aerospace to an extremely high strategic level. At present, the core of China’s development of commercial aerospace is to secure frequency-and-orbit rights. The U.S. has proposed “ensuring space superiority.” SpaceX’s Starship progresses smoothly; Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket recovery has been successful. China’s constellation “frequency-and-orbit rights” demand is even more urgent. The “15th Five-Year Plan” first proposed “aeronautics and astronautics power,” and subsequent policy implementation details were released in dense succession, supporting the development of the commercial aerospace industry from both industrial and capital perspectives. The industry development has entered a fast track.

2. From a commercial value perspective, the space for commercial aerospace is starry seas. In the satellite manufacturing segment, the construction of giant constellations consisting of tens of thousands of satellites, along with ongoing demand for replenishment and retasking (expanding and filling the network), brings a market scale on the order of hundreds of billions of dollars, further opening up imagination space for “space data centers.” In the rocket launch segment, besides satellite launch demand, as rocket lift capacity increases and launch costs decline, activities such as space tourism, global high-speed transportation, space biological experiments, and resource exploration and utilization will be carried out in an orderly manner. In the ground equipment and operations services segments, demand such as satellite internet operations services and direct connections of various terminals to satellites brings a market space on the order of trillions of dollars.

3. From valuation benchmarking, SpaceX is expected to list in 2026, targeting a valuation of $1.25 trillion. The market values of ASTS and RKLB exceed $30 billion. The total valuations of U.S. commercial aerospace-related companies far exceed the combined market value of related listed companies in China. Domestic policies support Chinese commercial aerospace enterprises in going overseas. In the future, China is expected to capture a greater share of the global market. With strong market growth potential and large room for enterprise valuation growth, opportunities abound.

4. From industrial progress, China’s core rocket bottlenecks are being continuously unblocked. The successful orbital insertion of the Tianque-3 (Zhuque-3) and Long March 12 Xi’an (Changzheng-12A) maiden flights; a major breakthrough in first-stage recovery; the successful ocean splashdown of the Long-11 second-stage (Zi-ji); the successful orbital insertion of the Lijian-2 (Liqian-2) maiden flight. In 2026, multiple private-sector and research-institute large liquid rockets benchmarked against Falcon 9 are expected to conduct dense maiden flights and recovery tests. Launch pads will continue to be expanded, and turnaround cycle times will be significantly shortened. This is expected to gradually solve industry bottlenecks. In the medium and short term, it will greatly accelerate the pace of constellation construction in China. In the long term, it will also drive an explosion of applications such as space tourism and space transportation.

5. From subsequent catalysts, China and the U.S. are resonating, with dense catalysts domestically and internationally. China’s multi-model launch vehicles will continue to conduct maiden flights and recovery tests. This year, rocket recovery is expected to be achieved. Commercial rocket companies’ IPOs will advance steadily; leading companies may list within the year. The Starship V3 version is expected to begin test flights, and SpaceX is expected to list within the year.

Investment recommendation: Recently, the commercial aerospace sector has seen a relatively large pullback due to factors such as some rocket launch failures/postponements and changes in market risk appetite. As of 2026.3.30, the average pullback exceeded 30%. With subsequent catalysts coming in dense succession, and as market risk appetite repairs, we are optimistic about the commercial aerospace sector’s subsequent performance. In the satellite segment, we will mainly focus on payload overall scope, antennas and supporting components, laser communication terminals and supporting components, and solar array and energy system related items. In the rocket segment, we will mainly focus on engines and their 3D printing, and related airframe structural parts. In the ground equipment segment, we will mainly focus on civilian terminals and direct-to-mobile related items. In the operations and services segment, we will mainly focus on companies with rare qualifications.

Risk disclosure: 1. Satellite internet construction falls short of expectations. The satellite internet industry is a strategic emerging industry strongly supported by the state. As the satellite internet industry develops, the state may introduce new policies and regulations to regulate and guide the healthy development of the industry. Adjustments to these policies and regulations may affect the industry’s production and operations and investment decision-making. 2. Technological breakthroughs fall short of expectations. Although China has made a series of progress in the satellite internet field, compared with the most advanced international level, there is still a certain technological gap. In particular, insufficient breakthroughs in key technologies such as multi-satellite per rocket, rocket recovery and reusability, and low-cost manufacturing remain major bottlenecks restricting the rapid development of the industry. 3. Intensifying competition for spectrum and space resources. With the rapid increase in the number of low-orbit satellites, competition for spectrum resources and space orbital resources will intensify. How to coordinate internationally and secure more spectrum and orbital resources to ensure stable operation of China’s satellite internet system is a long-term and complex challenge. 4. IPO progress for related companies falls short of expectations. The IPO progress of domestic leading commercial rocket companies and overseas SpaceX is jointly affected by multiple factors, with uncertain timing, and there is the possibility that progress will be slower than expected.

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Securities research report title: 《Commercial Aerospace 2026 Investment Strategy: Starry Seas, the Turning Point Has Arrived》

External release date: March 31, 2026

Report issuing institution: CITIC Securities Co., Ltd.

Report analysts:

Ren Hongdao SAC ID: S1440523050002

Wang Zhengxin SAC ID: S1440525040001

02 Outlook on the Ten Major Industrial Trends of Commercial Aerospace

Global commercial aerospace has entered a new stage centered on scaled deployment and ecosystem building, with a dual-polarity pattern led by China and the U.S. dominating the development process. U.S. companies represented by SpaceX have established global benchmarks for commercial and technology progress through reusable rockets and mega constellations. With policy enabling across the board and breakthroughs in capital systems (such as the Fifth Set of standards of the STAR Market) as the engine, China drives structural leaps in the industry, with overall valuations crossing the trillion-level threshold. Today’s competition has shifted from single technology breakthroughs to a full-scale race for reusable rocket engineering, industrialized satellite manufacturing, and commercialized integration of space and ground. With efficient coordination between state-owned central enterprises and private enterprises, the industry is accelerating efforts to secure frequency-and-orbit resources and capture discourse power for 6G space-air-ground integrated standards. Looking ahead, the boundaries of the industry will expand into multi-dimensional tracks such as space computing power and tourism. This marks commercial aerospace shifting comprehensively from a national-engineering endeavor to a critical ecosystem that drives future economic growth and strategic competition.

1. The policy system continues to improve: 2025 is a key year for the maturity of China’s commercial aerospace policy framework. The National Space Administration established a Commercial Aerospace Division and issued a special action plan. This indicates that industry regulation has moved from “encouraging exploration” to a new stage of “systematic governance and dedicated standardization,” providing clear guidance for core technology and application deployment.

2. A new capital era and IPO breakthroughs: The Shanghai Stock Exchange released specific guidance, which for the first time opened the listing channel for commercial rocket enterprises (applying the Fifth Set of standards of the STAR Market). In 2025, the total industry financing amount reached 18.6 billion yuan. The combined total valuations of TOP100 enterprises surpassed the trillion-yuan threshold, showing that capital is driving the industry to move from the growth stage toward the stage of capability realization.

3. Low-orbit satellite internet enters normalized network construction: Driven by ITU’s “first come, first served” rules, China’s low-orbit constellations represented by “Star Network” (星网) and “Thousand Sail” (千帆) have entered a batch deployment stage. High-frequency “multiple satellites per rocket” launches have become the norm, aiming to compete for scarce frequency-and-orbit strategic resources.

4. Satellite manufacturing enters the “super factory” era: The competitive focus shifts to efficiency and consistency in mass production. With Hainan Wenchang’s satellite super factory as a representative example, it uses automated pulsed production lines. Target annual production capacity can reach one thousand satellites, enabling “ready-to-launch from the factory,” and driving a manufacturing paradigm revolution.

5. Exploring integrated space-and-ground applications toward a commercial closed loop: Commercialization follows a “genuine demand first” path, penetrating the ToB/ToG market and then moving toward the ToC market. Direct-to-mobile satellite (DTC) has become a hotspot. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set a development target of over 12.5k users by 2030, laying the foundation for 6G space-air-ground integrated networks.

6. Reusable rockets enter the engineering ramp-up period: The core of competition shifts from “whether it can be recovered” to “whether it can be reused with high frequency.” In 2025-2026, multiple types of domestic medium and large liquid rockets will conduct dense maiden flights, aiming to overcome reusability technologies and cope with the huge lift capacity and cost pressures generated by constellation construction.

7. 3D printing becomes a core process revolution: This technology shifts from prototype manufacturing to direct manufacturing of key load-bearing components such as rocket engines and satellite structures. Through part integration and design optimization, it enables major cost reductions and rapid iteration, becoming a core yardstick for measuring an enterprise’s engineering capability.

8. Deep collaboration forms between state-owned and private enterprises: The industry pattern goes beyond simple complementarity and enters a stage of “dual-wheel drive—strategic leadership and market agility.” State-owned and central enterprises ensure strategic security and basic capabilities. Private enterprises form efficient relay support through innovation vitality and cost efficiency, jointly addressing scaled challenges.

9. Competitive escalation toward a new-style nationwide system of mobilization for a contest: Global competition has expanded beyond fighting for frequency-and-orbit resources to include the right to set 6G integrated communication standards and the positioning of future talent ecosystems. China and the U.S. are constructing their own political, technological, and supply-chain alliance systems in the space domain.

10. The space economy begins to unleash explosive growth across multiple tracks: Industry boundaries expand significantly. Frontier areas include: space computing power (such as orbital data centers), space tourism (suborbital, orbital, and deep-space travel), heavy-lift vehicle development, and long-term visions such as Mars migration. It moves toward a truly new era of “starry seas.”

Risk disclosure: Key risks include satellite internet construction and key technology breakthroughs (such as multiple satellites per rocket) falling short of expectations, as well as intensified international competition for spectrum and space resources.

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Securities research report title: 《Commercial Aerospace: Outlook on the Ten Major Industrial Trends》

External release date: February 2, 2026

Report issuing institution: CITIC Securities Co., Ltd.

Report analysts:

Li Tiaoyang SAC ID: S1440516090001

Wang Zejin SAC ID: S1440525080004

03 The “15th Five-Year Plan” proposes developing the aeronautics and astronautics industry—focus on opportunities for investments converting from military to civilian

The “15th Five-Year Plan” proposes developing the aeronautics and astronautics industry—focus on opportunities for investments converting from military to civilian

The full text of the “15th Five-Year Plan” outline has been released externally. The plan further strengthens and expands the aeronautics and astronautics and marine economy industries. It proposes accelerating the development of strategic emerging industries such as next-generation information technology, new energy, new materials, intelligent connected new-energy vehicles, robotics, biopharmaceuticals, advanced equipment, and aeronautics and astronautics. It calls for building clusters of strategic emerging industries that are tailored to local conditions with distinctive features and complementary advantages, and aims to create a number of emerging pillar industries with high growth potential, high technical content, and penetration into new fields. It will expand the space for developing the marine economy and promote the healthy and orderly development of the low-altitude economy. It will implement large-scale demonstration initiatives for applying new technologies, new products, and new scenarios, increase efforts to cultivate and open up scenarios, and accelerate the scaled development of emerging industries. It encourages the development of strategic products and services, promotes scaled and serialized development of domestic large aircraft, strengthens innovative applications of the BeiDou system, and solidly advances key technology innovations such as intelligent driving, new solar cells, and new energy storage. It also supports the clinical use of innovative drugs.

In addition, the plan’s future industry section also mentions quantum technology, hydrogen energy, and nuclear fusion energy. Targeting key future-development focus areas, it will build a whole-chain cultivation system for future industries, and drive quantum technology, biological manufacturing, hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, sixth-generation mobile communications, and others to become new economic growth drivers. It will strengthen identification and dynamic adjustment of future industries and reinforce the layout of foundational, frontier, and disruptive technologies. It will establish mechanisms for growth in future-industry investment and risk sharing, organize and implement demonstration projects for future industry development, and explore multiple technical routes, typical application scenarios, feasible business models, and market regulation rules. It will lay out a number of national future-industry research institutes and concept validation centers, and, based on advantages in education and scientific research resources and robust industrial foundations, build future-industry pilot zones in regions with strong capacity.

In the “15th Five-Year Plan” new-industry track cultivation and development feature section, tracks related to aeronautics and astronautics list commercial aerospace, domestic large aircraft, and low-altitude equipment. The plan also particularly proposes improving the refined management level of low-altitude airspace, strengthening the capability for airworthiness approvals, and enhancing safety assurances for low-altitude flights. It will advance legislation in emerging fields such as biopharmaceuticals, intelligent driving, and the low-altitude economy.

Risk disclosure: 1. Defense budget growth falls short of expectations. In recent years, the defense budget has maintained relatively stable growth. Defense industry policies look favorable, but there is the possibility that changes in national policies and national strategies could reduce defense budget spending. 2. Delivery of weapon equipment falls short of expectations. In the post-pandemic period, combined with factors of regional tension, global economic and trade links have been hit significantly. For industries such as shipping, there may be risks of inability to complete construction on time and delayed deliveries. 3. Related reform progress falls short of expectations. The nation’s judgments about future situations and guiding ideology determine the industry’s development prospects. National macroeconomic policies and industrial development policies have major impacts on the strategic direction, industry selection, and investment and M&A direction of defense industry enterprises.

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Securities research report title: 《The “15th Five-Year Plan” proposes developing the aeronautics and astronautics industry—focus on opportunities for investments converting from military to civilian》

External release date: March 25, 2026

Report issuing institution: CITIC Securities Co., Ltd.

Report analysts:

Li Tiaoyang SAC ID: S1440516090001

Wang Chunyang SAC ID: S1440520090001

04 Policy support for AI + aerospace; GTC is about to be held

The government work report elevates the positioning of AI and the aerospace industry. This week, the fourth session of the 14th National People’s Congress was held at the Great Hall of the People. At the meeting, Premier Li Qiang of the State Council delivered the government work report (hereinafter the “Report”). The Report made positive statements about the development of AI and the aerospace industry. On the AI side, it proposed “building a new form of intelligent economy,” “further expanding ‘artificial intelligence +’,” and “implementing new infrastructure projects such as ultra-large-scale intelligent computing clusters and compute-power and power collaboration, strengthening nationwide unified computing power monitoring and dispatch, supporting the development of public cloud,” among others. It upgrades AI from being a component of the digital economy to becoming the core of an intelligent economy. On the aerospace side, it upgraded “cultivating commercial aerospace as an emerging industry” to “aeronautics and astronautics as an emerging pillar industry.” On one hand, it expands the industrial dimensions; on the other hand, it elevates the industrial positioning.

AI and aerospace are expected to form a trillion-yuan-scale (10 trillion) industry by the end of the “15th Five-Year Plan,” as the state invests heavily in major “15th Five-Year Plan” projects. Zheng Shanjie, Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated this week at the economic-themed press conference of the fourth session of the 14th National People’s Congress that China will further deepen the “artificial intelligence +” action, and by the end of the “15th Five-Year Plan,” the scale of industries related to artificial intelligence will grow to more than 10 trillion yuan. China will focus on building six major emerging pillar industries and six future industries. The six emerging pillar industries include integrated circuits, aerospace, biopharmaceuticals, the low-altitude economy, new energy storage, and intelligent robotics. Based on initial estimates, their related output value in 2025 was already close to 6 trillion yuan. It is expected that by 2030 it could double or more, expanding to more than 10 trillion yuan. It will continue to advance the BeiDou scale application engineering and push the BeiDou industry to break through 1 trillion yuan within five years. In addition, for 109 major projects and initiatives under the “15th Five-Year Plan,” a set of actions will be carried out to expand effective investment, including “six networks” (the water network, the power grid, the computing power network, the new communications network, the urban underground pipeline network, and the logistics network), as well as basic infrastructure such as low-altitude and “artificial intelligence +.” It is expected that this year investment in the above fields will exceed 7 trillion yuan. To facilitate entrepreneurial investment exit channels, the NDRC this year will also work with the Ministry of Finance, the People’s Bank of China, and other departments to set up a national-level M&A fund, expected to guide and leverage funding scales exceeding 1 trillion yuan in total.

Risk disclosure: (1) Macroeconomic downside risk: The computer industry’s downstream reaches into thousands of sectors. If the macroeconomy faces downward pressure, underperforming IT spending by computer industry enterprises will directly affect demand in the computer industry. (2) Accounts receivable bad-debt risk: Many computer companies mainly sign deals on a project basis. They can only receive payments after acceptance. If downstream customers extend payment cycles, it may increase bad-debt risk in accounts receivable and could further lead to impairment losses on assets. (3) Intensifying industry competition: Demand in the computer industry is relatively certain, but intensifying competition on the supply side could change the industry landscape. (4) Changes in the international environment (currently, the U.S. continues rate hikes, affecting technology-sector valuations; at the same time, market expectations for overseas recession are strengthening, which may affect companies with high proportions of overseas revenue; in addition, the U.S. continues to pressure China’s tech industry).

Report source

Securities research report title: 《26-year Weekly Report, Issue 9: Policy Support for AI + Aerospace; GTC Is About to Be Held》

External release date: March 8, 2026

Report issuing institution: CITIC Securities Co., Ltd.

Report analysts:

Ying Ying SAC ID: S1440521100010

SFC ID: BWB917

Jiahao Wang SAC ID: S1440524030002

05 2025 global commercial aerospace activities hit new highs again—focus on satellite internet and reusable rocket investment opportunities

2025 global commercial aerospace activities hit new highs again—focus on satellite internet and reusable rocket investment opportunities

In the global landscape, China and the U.S. lead, and commercial attributes are increasingly prominent. In 2025, there were 329 rocket launches worldwide, with a success rate of 97.5% (321 satellites reached orbit). China and the U.S. dominated with an 83% share of launches. The U.S. led with 181 launches, and China followed closely with 92 launches (Russia and New Zealand each had 17, and Europe had 8).

The U.S. leads and SpaceX builds a leading advantage. SpaceX’s Falcon 9 executed 165 launch missions in 2025, exceeding 50% of total global rocket launches. In 2025, a total of 4,517 satellites were deployed worldwide. The U.S. deployed 3,724, while China deployed 372 satellites. SpaceX Starlink has already launched over 10k satellites, accounting for about 2/3 of the satellites in orbit globally.

China breaks through and systemic leapfrogging opens a new stage. By the end of 2025, China applied to the ITU for more than 200k satellite frequency-orbits. Multiple low-orbit constellations such as the GW constellation, the Thousand Sail constellation, Jilin-1, Geely constellation, and Tianqi constellation entered the batch deployment phase.

Acelerated commercialization of a multipolar global ecosystem competition. Global commercial launches reached 215 (65% share). In satellite operations, besides SpaceX Starlink, a multi-entity competitive landscape is emerging, including the EU’s IRIS², the UK’s OneWeb, and Amazon’s Project Kuiper.

China’s commercial aerospace has undergone structural changes in multiple key dimensions: the regulatory system has taken shape; reusable rockets have entered engineering verification; the capital market has officially opened the entry point; constellation construction and applications have entered a new stage.

1) Launch capability: 92 space launches were carried out throughout the year, setting a historical high. The maiden flights of Zhuque-3 and Long March 12A successfully reached orbit. Although first-stage recovery was unsuccessful, the control algorithms were sufficiently verified. The Hainan commercial aerospace launch site achieved normalized commercial launches. In parallel, key infrastructure upgrades were implemented, including adding launch pads and building a maritime recovery system.

2) Policy breakthroughs: The National Space Administration established a Commercial Aerospace Division and issued the 《Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality and Safe Development of Commercial Aerospace (2025—2027)》. At the national level, it clarified support for the issuance of satellite internet licenses and commercial trials for satellite IoT applications, among various other diversified application scenario deployments.

3) Capital market: The SSE released the 《Guidelines for the Review of Listing Standards Applicable to Commercial Rocket Enterprises Under the Fifth Set of Standards of the STAR Market》, opening an institutionalized and sustainable long-term financing channel for commercial aerospace enterprises characterized by high investment and long cycles.

4) Constellation deployment: Star Network launched 16 sets totaling 126 satellites. The Thousand Sail constellation had 108 satellites in orbit. High-frequency “multiple satellites per rocket” launches have become the norm, and batch insertion of low-orbit satellites into orbit has entered a new stage of large-scale deployment.

2026 may be the first year of a breakthrough toward industrialization in commercial aerospace, with reusable rockets serving as the core engine. Reusable rocket technology is moving from engineering verification toward large-scale applications, becoming a key support for driving cost reductions, efficiency improvements, and high-frequency launches in global commercial aerospace.

National strategy sets the tone: advancing both technical breakthroughs and engineering implementation on parallel tracks. The 2026 annual work meeting of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation clearly states that, as the first year of the “15th Five-Year Plan,” it will coordinate major projects and industrialization transformation such as crewed lunar landing and deep-space exploration, make full efforts to break through reusable rocket technologies, and accelerate the construction of an independently controllable aerospace industry system, providing core support for building an aerospace power.

Intensive enterprise implementation: breakthroughs in recovery verification + launch infrastructure simultaneously.

Under four layers of drivers—an uplift in launch capability, a more complete policy system, sustained empowerment from capital, and expansion of application scenarios—satellite internet infrastructure construction (satellite manufacturing, ground terminals, data services) and the industrialization of reusable rocket technologies (recovery technology, launch services, supply chain) have become the most certain main lines in commercial aerospace. It is recommended to focus on leading companies with leading technology verification, dominant frequency-and-orbit resource advantages, and clear commercialization paths.

Risk disclosure: 1. Defense budget growth falls short of expectations; in recent years, defense budgets have maintained relatively stable growth, and defense-industry policies look favorable, but there is the possibility that changes in national policies and national strategies could reduce defense budget spending. 2. Weapon equipment delivery falls short of expectations; in the post-pandemic period, combined with regional tensions, global economic and trade links have been hit significantly, and industries such as shipping face risks of being unable to complete construction on time and delayed deliveries. 3. Related reform progress falls short of expectations; the nation’s judgments about future conditions and its guiding ideology determine the industry’s development prospects. National macroeconomic policies and industrial development policies have major impacts on defense industry enterprises’ strategic direction, industry selection, and investment and M&A direction.

Report source

Securities research report title: 《25-year Global Commercial Aerospace Activities Hit New High Again—Focus on Satellite Internet and Reusable Rocket Investment Opportunities》

External release date: February 7, 2026

Report issuing institution: CITIC Securities Co., Ltd.

Report analysts:

Li Tiaoyang SAC ID: S1440516090001

Wang Zejin SAC ID: S1440525080004

06 Commercial aerospace series report 3: Satellite communications are expected to accelerate development

Satellite communications technology is undergoing an industrial transformation. Through technological innovations such as lowering orbital altitude, applying phased-array antennas, and laser communication media applications, transmission speeds are significantly improved, latency is reduced, and application scenarios are expanded. With the booming development of the commercial aerospace industry—especially companies represented by SpaceX driving reusable rocket technology and large-scale constellation deployment—launch costs are compressed, making it possible to network satellites on the scale of tens of thousands. This drives diversified demand such as satellite internet and the IoT. In the future, it will also generate broad markets such as space computing power. The global satellite communications market is expected to grow from $25.2 billion in 2025 to $83.0 billion by 2035, with an approximate CAGR of 13%. The industry chain for next-generation satellite communications technologies can be segmented into upstream chips and components, midstream communication modules, and downstream satellite communication terminals. Leading enterprises in related fields are actively exploring the application of new technologies and products in inter-satellite and space-ground communications, and are expected to benefit from incremental satellite communications markets brought by the development of the commercial aerospace industry.

Upgrading satellite communications technology is the core driving force for industry development. Traditional GEO-orbit satellites suffer from high latency and narrow bandwidth due to their high orbits, making it difficult to meet modern application needs. LEO orbits greatly reduce altitude, compressing latency to within 50 milliseconds. Phased-array antennas achieve multi-beam tracking and millisecond-level switching through electronic scanning, improving communication reliability and flexibility. Laser media use their high-frequency characteristics to support Tbps-level transmission, providing strong anti-interference capability for inter-satellite networking. These technological breakthroughs jointly address pain points related to latency, bandwidth, and stability, laying a foundation for satellite communications to be deployed in a wider range of scenarios.

The rise of the commercial aerospace industry brings incremental demand to the satellite communications market. Reusable rocket technology significantly lowers launch costs. In 2025, SpaceX completed 167 launches. Starlink satellites in orbit exceeded 9,300, covering more than 150 countries and with paid users surpassing 9 million. New low-price packages of $50/month are launched to accelerate penetration. Satellite communications application scenarios expand from traditional broadcasting and maritime communications to internet in remote areas, IoT, emergency rescue and disaster relief, and defense fields. The global market size in 2035 is expected to reach $83.0 billion. In China, multiple entities have applied to the ITU for plans involving more than 200k satellites. Supporting industry capabilities are gradually improving, and launch capacity is expected to increase to an annual average of 10k satellites, driving sustained market growth.

The satellite communications industry chain covers upstream chips, midstream modules, and downstream terminal segments. Currently, Starlink satellites have been equipped with phased-array antennas and laser link terminals. A globalized supply chain has achieved scaled mass production and in-orbit operations for relevant chips, modules, and terminals. In China, leading companies in sub-segments are actively deploying fields such as phased-array T/R chips, optical communication chips, spaceborne optical fiber amplifiers, star sensors, and high-speed communication terminals onboard satellites. They have verified the deployment of high-speed optical communications technology between satellites and between space and ground, providing high-speed, stable, and secure information transmission capability for the development of the commercial aerospace industry.

Risk disclosure: (1) Macroeconomic downside risk: The commercial aerospace industry chain mainly covers manufacturing enterprises. If the macroeconomy faces downward pressure, IT spending by manufacturing enterprises falling short of expectations will directly affect market demand. (2) Accounts receivable bad-debt risk: Commercial aerospace businesses mainly follow a project-based model, and payment cycles may be relatively long. Some projects may lead to accounts receivable with bad-debt risk. (3) Intensifying industry competition: The commercial aerospace market and its supporting industries are still in the early stage of development. In the future, new entrants may emerge, worsening the competitive landscape. (4) Policy and technology advancement falling short of expectations: At present, the commercial aerospace industry is strongly supported by the state and local governments. If the continuity of related policies and funding support is worse than expected, it may lead to slower industry development. Commercial aerospace, especially areas such as reusable rockets and space computing power, is still in the trial phase. Cost and reliability uncertainties are relatively large. If innovation progress is slower than expected, industry development may slow down.

Report source

Securities research report title: 《Commercial Aerospace Series Report 3: Satellite Communications Are Expected to Accelerate Development》

External release date: January 25, 2026

Report issuing institution: CITIC Securities Co., Ltd.

Report analysts:

Ying Ying SAC ID: S1440521100010

SFC ID: BWB917

Jiahao Wang SAC ID: S1440524030002

07 Commercial aerospace series report 2: Taking a look at the path of overseas commercial aerospace development

Taking a look at the path of overseas commercial aerospace industry development, success hinges on the coordinated drive of policy, technology, and business models. The U.S. achieved an aggressive transition from state-led initiatives to full private-sector commercialization in LEO through legislation guarantees, NASA’s massive procurement contracts, and deregulation of oversight. Europe, relying on ESA to integrate resources, explores a unified market model. At the technology level, cost-reduction and efficiency-improvement technologies represented by reusable rockets, modular satellite manufacturing, and on-orbit services are core to scaled industry growth. In business models, SpaceX achieves profitability through an end-to-end industry chain closed loop, while companies like Planet Labs create stable cash flow via standardized data subscription services. Benchmarking overseas, China’s commercial aerospace development needs to strengthen legislative and procurement support at the policy level, tackle cost-reduction areas such as reusable rockets by leveraging manufacturing advantages at the technology level, and leverage the capital market to accelerate the maturation of the industrial chain and ecosystem building.

Overseas commercial aerospace has formed a clear development landscape and mature path. The U.S. removes obstacles through a series of legislative acts such as the Commercial Space Launch Act, while NASA provides massive contracts and technical support through programs such as COTS, CRS, and CCP, helping companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin rise and realizing full private-sector commercialization of LEO space. Europe emphasizes national coordination; the European Space Agency integrates resources to advance a unified market through funding support programs that incentivize local companies to develop reusable rockets. Russia continues the state-led model, focusing on developing its own constellation. India, with ISRO initially monopolizing and gradually shifting toward opening up private capital, forms a dual-wheel drive. Different models together promote global commercial aerospace entering a scaled development stage.

Technological breakthroughs are the core engine driving cost reduction, efficiency improvement, and commercial closed loops in commercial aerospace. Reusable rocket technology has already formed multiple paths, including vertical landing, aerodynamic gliding, and parachute-based recovery, significantly reducing unit launch costs. Modular and software-defined satellite technologies improve production efficiency and operational flexibility, supporting rapid large-scale deployment. Meanwhile, as the number of satellites in orbit surges, on-orbit services markets grow quickly, including in-orbit longevity extension and debris cleanup, ensuring sustainable operation of space assets. These technologies together build a solid foundation for industry development, making high-frequency, low-cost access to space possible.

Overseas commercial aerospace has successfully validated multiple sustainable business models. SpaceX relies on reusable rocket technology. Through government launch contracts, it accumulates initial capital, then builds the Starlink constellation, enabling a transformation from a launch services provider into a global telecom operator. Starlink has also become a core driver of its profit growth. On the other hand, remote sensing data service providers represented by Planet Labs provide standardized satellite imagery subscription services, forming stable cash flow for government, defense, and commercial customers and gradually achieving profitability. The lesson for China is to accelerate building an independently controllable commercial aerospace ecosystem through policy support (legislation, procurement, simplifying approvals), technology cost reduction (tackling reusable rockets, etc.), and capital empowerment.

Risk disclosure: (1) Macroeconomic downside risk: The commercial aerospace industry chain mainly covers manufacturing enterprises. If the macroeconomy faces downward pressure, IT spending by manufacturing enterprises falling short of expectations will directly affect market demand. (2) Accounts receivable bad-debt risk: Commercial aerospace businesses mainly follow a project-based model, and payment cycles may be relatively long. Some projects may lead to accounts receivable with bad-debt risk. (3) Intensifying industry competition: The commercial aerospace market and its supporting industries are still in the early stage of development. In the future, new entrants may emerge, worsening the competitive landscape. (4) Policy and technology advancement falling short of expectations: At present, the commercial aerospace industry is strongly supported by the state and local governments. If the continuity of related policies and funding support is worse than expected, it may lead to slower industry development. Commercial aerospace, especially areas such as reusable rockets and space computing power, is still in the trial phase. Cost and reliability uncertainties are relatively large. If innovation progress is slower than expected, industry development may slow down.

Report source

Securities research report title: 《Commercial Aerospace Series Report 2: Taking a Look at the Path of Overseas Commercial Aerospace Development》

External release date: January 3, 2026

Report issuing institution: CITIC Securities Co., Ltd.

Report analysts:

Ying Ying SAC ID: S1440521100010

SFC ID: BWB917

Li Tiaoyang SAC ID: S1440516090001

Jiahao Wang SAC ID: S1440524030002

08 Commercial aerospace in-depth report: From stars to the road—leading a new era

With joint support from national policy and breakthroughs in industry technologies, the commercial aerospace industry is expected to enter a new era. The key information-technology-related components in the commercial aerospace industry include (1) remote sensing and its applications; (2) satellite TT&C (tracking, telemetry, and control) systems; (3) CAE simulation/satellite testing; (4) inter-satellite transmission processing modules, communication modules, data processing platforms, and so on. In terms of expanding into new scenarios, we also focus on space computing power. In addition, we believe that the current development of commercial aerospace is a period of resonance between state-owned enterprises and private enterprises. It is recommended to pay attention to state-owned enterprise targets such as Dian Ke, Electronics Department, and the aerospace-related sector, as well as supporting companies serving private enterprises.

The goal of building an aerospace power accelerates the development of the commercial aerospace industry. During the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, China first explicitly proposed building “a space infrastructure system for communications, navigation, and remote sensing with global coverage and efficient operation,” and particularly emphasized “encouraging and guiding the development of commercial aerospace,” which has vindicated private capital at the national strategic level. Looking ahead to the “15th Five-Year Plan,” China’s policy support for commercial aerospace is expected to evolve from the current emphasis on infrastructure construction and market cultivation toward rule-making and guiding the exploration of frontier fields in the industry. In November 2025, the National Space Administration announced the establishment of a Commercial Aerospace Division and simultaneously released 《Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality and Safe Development of Commercial Aerospace (2025-2027)》, clarifying that by 2027, the industry will achieve growth in scale, efficient ecosystem collaboration, and improved safety regulation for the commercial aerospace industry.

Information-technology development in the aerospace industry mainly involves remote sensing, flight control, simulation/testing, and other information-technology-related segments. 1) Remote sensing is one of the main fields for commercial aerospace industry development because it has broad application scenarios and creates intuitive economic value. 2) As dense deployment of low-orbit satellite constellations makes the space environment increasingly complex, satellite intelligent flight control technologies have become the cornerstone for ensuring the safety and efficient operation of the entire industry. Demand for TT&C systems is expected to increase significantly. 3) The application of CAE technology in commercial aerospace runs through the full life cycle of products such as satellites, rockets, and probes, and plays an important role in both design and testing.

Space computing power is expected to become a new application scenario and serve as an organic supplement to ground computing power. Looking overseas, Musk, in an interview, proposed an annual 100 GW space AI data center and believes space AIDC is the lowest-cost path for running large-scale artificial intelligence. Meanwhile, Google has officially disclosed Project Suncatcher, planning to place satellites equipped with TPUs into orbit for on-orbit experiments. Considering that building large-scale intelligent computing centers on the ground requires solving multiple issues such as massive power consumption, land resources, and cooling, while the advantages of space computing power precisely address the above pain points, it has potential for commercialization and economic viability.

Risk disclosure: (1) Macroeconomic downside risk: The commercial aerospace industry chain mainly covers manufacturing enterprises. If the macroeconomy faces downward pressure, IT spending by manufacturing enterprises falling short of expectations will directly affect market demand. (2) Accounts receivable bad-debt risk: Commercial aerospace businesses mainly follow a project-based model, and payment cycles may be relatively long. Some projects may lead to accounts receivable with bad-debt risk. (3) Intensifying industry competition: The commercial aerospace market and its supporting industries are still in the early stage of development. In the future, new entrants may emerge, worsening the competitive landscape. (4) Policy and technology advancement falling short of expectations: At present, the commercial aerospace industry is strongly supported by the state and local governments. If the continuity of related policies and funding support is worse than expected, it may lead to slower industry development. Commercial aerospace, especially areas such as reusable rockets and space computing power, is still in the trial phase. Cost and reliability uncertainties are relatively large. If innovation progress is slower than expected, industry development may slow down.

Report source

Securities research report title: 《Commercial Aerospace In-Depth Report: From Stars to the Road—Leading a New Era》

External release date: December 15, 2025

Report issuing institution: CITIC Securities Co., Ltd.

Report analysts:

Ying Ying SAC ID: S1440521100010

SFC ID: BWB917

Li Tiaoyang SAC ID: S1440516090001

Jiahao Wang SAC ID: S1440524030002

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