April 4, 2026 Holiday Review: Hope comes after despair!

The beginning of April is pure knockout—I feel like analyzing the market’s行情 at this very moment only increases anxiety, but the fact is, that’s exactly what it is. At the open, they went straight on the offensive with CPO, optical communications, optical chips, and so on. Actually, even in the U.S. market overnight, Nvidia didn’t rise much, but here, at the open, under conditions of shrinking volume, the entire AI hardware complex surged. DekoLi, TengJing Technology, OptoLink Technology, Tongguang Fiber, and InStarXchuang, and so on—everything in the optical direction was rising.

When I reviewed the chart, I also judged whether the action was reasonable based on the main forces’ past moves and the current situation! [Taoguba]

So, is it reasonable for optical stocks to rise this much today? I think it’s not reasonable. Because if it were truly good news, then what kind of massive catalyst could support an entire sector to hold up collectively for so long under a shrinking-volume market? If it’s earnings, then Demingli, BroadVision Storage and those other names have already provided the answer. If it’s an industry logic, then these stocks that are rising also haven’t been doing it just today—ever since the first day they rose, they were already talking about the logic and the future expectations. But the outcome is they’re really rising, in a solid way. Then, assuming the market is correct—that this optical segment has extremely big good news sufficient to support today’s sector-wide gap-ups and the final pullback—what ends up falling are Yi Zhongtian and some of the optical communications, optical sources, optical modules, and that few relatively strong names in the Google chain. Then the question comes again: when the market’s strongest direction keeps going after the highs, while other directions are dropping so hard they can’t be any harder—could it be that in A-shares, there’s only this one direction? Or is it simply that funds chose to pool into this direction?

So today many people are thinking back to the time of baijiu and pharmaceuticals. Back then, when there were fund purchase limits, that kind of tactic was already too familiar—hunger marketing. That’s the definition of the current tape’s Yi Zhongtian. That is institutional direction pooling. A lot of retail investors today are also saying: this direction is up so well—why not buy this direction? I think this thing has been “good” for more than one or two days. If it were truly that good, then InStarXchuang wouldn’t have been gapping down or gapping up for four days straight, bouncing back and forth like that—what is that even targeting? It’s pure hindsight. That mindset is deadly!

Everything above is deduced from logic. Then, in reverse, I deduced from a technical perspective. Take Tongguang Optical as an example. At the open, the best performer should have been the optical segment. Logically, since the funds chose to lift this direction, at 9:46 Tongguang Optical was already near the limit-up area. The sector’s strength was continuously providing. But Tongguang Optical kept not sealing the board. That’s a detail. After DekoLi hit the limit-up, it also kept frequently smashing the board. Here we can interpret it as: the index is too weak, getting dragged down by the broader market—so then you continue to follow the main force’s actions to look at it.

Why would the main force accelerate at this point?
When thinking about problems, look directly at the outcome. Since yesterday, Tongguang Fiber has been driven by quant strategies—that’s also a detail. These details are quietly setting up hidden risks for what comes next. And when it accelerates from the high point—have things really gotten that good to this extent? I don’t think so. In a normal wave, when the market accelerates, it usually means the main force is preparing to close the net. Think about it: what effect does acceleration have? The main force’s opponent is retail investors. After retail investors see it, if they don’t come down for a long time, what will they do? So this is related to why the market has been repeatedly selling off sharply. The optical branch is a cover for CPO—openly shows one route while covertly crossing another. They suppress other things so that the market is left with only this beam of light. Everyone’s attention converges on this beam of light, and finally they go to find the successor of optical. —First, I need to make a statement here: my chart review only represents my personal conjecture and viewpoints, and does not constitute any view. Because there are the most people in CPO, so it’s easy to get attacked. Even if CPO comes down, it will be very slow. Every era has its own “stabilizer” stocks. In the baijiu cycle, it was Kweichow Moutai. In the new energy era, it was CATL. This time is the same. So after Yi Zhongtian, it’s also going to become the growth-board stabilizer.

A normal market can’t be like this. The broad rally in AI hardware shows the market actually has money, but this money hasn’t given a single bit to the masses. The main force emphasized “a slow bull market” early on, but their ideas and methods are not the same—also, you can’t say the methods are different; they’re just too ugly. So later, either the ones that fell first will stabilize, or the ones at high levels will make up losses. There will always be one side that corrects. During that process, a new framework will be applied. Now the market’s sentiment and the institutions’ alternating operations make it easy for A-kills to appear as soon as a theme comes out. That’s one of the main force’s methods—a way to run a slow bull. So the methods are too ugly—because once retail chases in, they often end up only getting back to break-even. Even if it pulls back, it might be after a whole quarter. One up-and-down and half a year is gone, but for retail, as long as their position control isn’t good, sorry—they’ll only get back to break-even. There’s no “making money.”

On Thursday, what’s active in the tape are mainly convertible bonds, the NEEQ, new listings, and so on. Without any theme taking the lead, even pharmaceuticals themselves are divided—very few limit-up stocks. Today not only were there few limit-ups, but there were also many more down-limit stocks. Right now, there are basically two things: either test with first-board new themes, or just wait for the market to come down. In terms of direction, either institutions push, or retail investors—actually that’s not right; it’s funds and speculators—quant and speculators push. Retail investors don’t have the dominant power. If neither of these work, then it has no meaning. So why does it become meaningless once people talk about Yi Zhongtian and the like? Because institutions are working in the wrong direction—doing their job in the wrong place. When speculators see funds doing the optical side, they can use quant strategies to ride the wave. For example, DekoLi at the open was already gapping up. In 3 minutes it directly reached 13 percentage points. At that time, do you enter or not? This is the kind of choice where retail investors picked the strongest. If not, did they pick SourceRay Technology or OptoLink Technology? And then at this position, would retail still plan to take a swing trade? I don’t think so—so the meaning is not big. It’s not that you can’t make money—just that the risk-reward ratio is too low!

As for the consecutive-limit side, it basically feels like there aren’t “real people” in there. For instance, Jinyao Pharmaceutical is advancing to a sixth board. The rest are all separated by gaps—only a first-to-second or first-to-three. As for Huiyuan Communications, it’s still a one-word limit. The number of first-board stocks is only slightly more than Friday: 36. But on Friday, there were 24 stocks hitting down limits, and there were also three straight down-limit stocks. Here, there’s no need to talk about any pre-holiday effect. The market lacks liquidity—this scene didn’t start only this month; it has been like this since after the New Year. So first, let’s puncture the “pre-holiday effect” dream held by those people!

So the reason here is simply that everyone has been fooled too many times. Then trading volume has been shrinking continuously. On Friday, the trading volume was only 1.67T yuan left—basically most people believe that at this position, the “second leg” of something will be born. Every time we gamble for an oversold bounce, the result has always been getting slapped. Ask yourself: is it that we’re missing the day of a bounce? I don’t think so. What we lack is the environment and confidence. That’s exactly what we need to find right now!

The environment is basically the continuation of themes, plus funds entering—that is, the expansion of trading volume. On top of that, except for optics, everything else has been falling endlessly. Then are the optics logic truly strong enough? I think storage chips already clearly indicates everything. Since it’s not based on the optics logic, why did funds chase optics? Is it really just mimicking Moutai and CATL? I don’t think so. Then it must be institutional crowding and pooling. In the past, institutions had suffered this kind of loss. But now people are discussing pooling—pooling requires that someone gets falsified, otherwise they wouldn’t pool. So here it lines up with the earlier deduction: it’s because it’s “bad,” so they “pool.” Therefore, what we want isn’t CPO coming down, but that funds no longer get involved in this optics segment at all. The market being good doesn’t mean CPO is bad—these two don’t form a contradiction. This used to not be the case either. This is how to break down this kind of pooling phenomenon and let funds rebuild confidence, because now the market’s volume is already low enough. “A low volume shows a low price.” At this level, you definitely have to wait for events to happen—meaning the “imaye” conflict. When I’m writing the review and it reaches here, the U.S. side has started another 48-hour countdown; it happens to coincide with our open. So we just wait for this event to land. Like on Friday, many instruments were shrinking volume while dropping sharply. Unless they open high to ease the situation, a shrinking-volume drop will still keep happening. That’s also why I reduced positions last week. If the event really lands, on Tuesday they definitely won’t be able to kill out volume. Tuesday’s late close should be a chance for gaming. Then watch the intraday strongest sector!

The stock market is like a practice with no finish line. Some people enter in a hurry, some exit halfway, some get lost in the ups and downs, and some settle in through perseverance. Today in the comment section, someone said: the market lacks neither people who work hard, but rather people who keep working hard consistently; it lacks neither people who make money, but rather people who can reliably make money long-term. Short-term effort may buy you some gains for a moment. Only long-term staying power and clear-mindedness can help you stand firm in a market full of changing patterns and chaos, and reap real growth and wealth.

In the market, there’s never a shortage of hard-working people. Some stay up late to study candlestick charts; some parse financial report data line by line. Some travel to all kinds of investment seminars, crazily absorbing the so-called “stock trading secrets.” Some trade frequently, trying to catch every rise-and-fall opportunity, wishing they could devote the entire 24 hours of the day to the stock market. You can’t say these efforts aren’t sincere. But most of the time, this kind of effort can still be hard to turn into long-lasting returns. The reason is that this effort is often short-term and profit-driven—like three-minute heat. When the market pulls back, they get disheartened. When they see others making money, they blindly follow the trend. In the end, they burn out their energy in restlessness and miss the truly good opportunities.

Real effort is never a burst of passion for just a moment, but day after day of accumulation and persistence. Like those investors who have long-term stable profitability—they may not have extraordinary talent, but they have willpower that most people can’t match. They don’t change their investment logic because of short-term rises or falls. They don’t give up their convictions because of momentary losses. They keep learning every day, track industry developments, and review their trade logs—improving their investment framework through one practice after another. They can endure loneliness; they don’t chase breakouts or kill on dips; they don’t crave too much too fast. They always stay rational and restrained. This kind of sustained effort is not blind giving—it’s deep work with direction and a plan. Over time, it forms your own investing rhythm, so you can find your own way of survival in the market.

The charm of the stock market is that it never rejects anyone who works hard, but it also never favors anyone who is restless. In a market where the trend is favorable, even beginners can fill their pockets just by luck. But the real test is always after the trend fades. When the market enters a trough, those who made money by luck often cut positions in panic and exit the market, spitting all their gains back out. Meanwhile, those who have been making money steadily for the long term can keep confidence in the trough and stick to their investment principles. They understand that market fluctuations are the norm. A trough is never the end—it’s an opportunity to build strength. By accumulating yourself in the trough, reflecting on what’s lacking, and waiting for the market to turn warm again, you can firmly seize opportunities when the trend returns and achieve compounding growth.

If the trough tests confidence, then the peak tests self-examination. When the market is boiling with excitement and the money-making effect becomes obvious, many people get carried away by victory. They forget risk, increase their exposure blindly, and even overdraw funds to chase even higher returns. But the more like this, the easier it is to fall into market traps. Investors who have been steadily profitable for the long term keep a clear head when the trend improves. They periodically review their trading behavior, identify potential