Data: Polymarket's "Claude Mythos Model Release Date before April 30" probability drops to 28%

CoinWorld News reports that monitoring shows that on Polymarket, the probability of “Claude Mythos model to be released in April” has plunged to 28%, a decline of 26% over the past 7 days. The amount staked is about $42k. The probability of “Claude Mythos model to be released in June” is temporarily at 53%, with staked funds of about $11.6k. The rules for this event contract are: if Anthropic releases “Claude Mythos” or confirms that it is the same model mentioned in the above leaks, and the model is made available to the public on the specified date (U.S. Eastern Time), then the market will decide “Yes.” Otherwise, this market will ultimately decide “No.” The qualifying models must be named “Claude Mythos” (for example, Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X—all of which can count), or confirm that they are the same model as the one mentioned by Anthropic in the leaks, or be confirmed by consensus following credible reporting. Models labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar products will not count toward the market’s determination unless it is confirmed that they are the same model mentioned in the leaked information. For the market to ultimately resolve to “Yes,” qualifying models (as defined above) must go live and be publicly opened, including via open testing or open rolling waitlist registration. Closed testing or any form of private access does not satisfy the corresponding conditions. Earlier, Anthropic announced a ban on users subscribing to “free rides,” and OpenClaw’s use of Claude requires pay-as-you-go billing or use of an API.