Yang Jinrui: Gold and silver break through strongly. What's the next move? Today's trend analysis and trading suggestions

Market Insights:

On April 1, gold was under overall pressure in the past period, mainly because the scope of the Middle East conflict continued to expand, oil prices kept rising, which intensified global inflation pressure, weighed on expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, supported the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, and directly dragged down gold prices. However, after Trump signaled a willingness for a ceasefire, gold rebounded from its low point last Monday. In the short term, the downward momentum has clearly slowed down. Oil prices saw a quick pullback, easing inflation pressure. In addition, the latest remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that the inflation outlook is generally controllable and that there is currently no need for an immediate rate hike. This eased market concerns about the Fed tightening policy further. U.S. Treasury yields (10-year) have retreated from their highs since last July, supporting gold to rebound consecutively and test levels after this week’s market open. Looking ahead, investors need to continue to pay attention to the Middle East situation and the Fed’s monetary policy expectations, as these have a significant impact on gold’s short-term price trend.

Gold Price Trend Insights:

How should we view gold? Recently, gold has been moving in a very regular way: it closed with a “doji” on Monday, then surged straight up on Tuesday and has already moved above the key level of 4530. After breaking through the 4600 threshold, on Wednesday, it will most likely continue consolidating and moving upward—first looking at the resistance level of 4668.

Going further up, around 4800 is a stronger resistance area. The 66-day moving average line and the Bollinger middle band will also gradually converge toward here, roughly around 4850. The first time it touches this area, there’s a high probability of a pullback. After the pullback, if it holds steady, it can still push higher again. The target is the upper band of the rising channel—faster could reach 5100, slower could still be around 5000.

In the short term, look at the hourly chart: it’s clearly an upward channel, with both the lows and highs being raised step by step. The support of the lower band has already moved up to 4511, and the resistance of the upper band—currently at 4668—has already been pierced. The first time it reaches here, it will most likely surge up and then pull back, because the indicators may be slightly “bearish divergence” (overbought-type divergence). Of course, if it breaks through the upper band on strong volume, the divergence can be temporarily ignored, and then it can push quickly toward 4800. For the short-term moving-average support below, first look at 4563—so long as it doesn’t fall below that level, the overall rhythm remains one of consolidation moving upward.

Silver Price Trend Insights:

Silver overall is also gradually lifting its lows, and the bigger direction is still upward. The short-term resistance at 73.5 has already been broken and closed above it. Below, 71.7 is the support for the top-bottom role switch. If 71.7 is held and 73.5 is maintained, you can look for the trend resistance line around 74.5–75. If it falls below 71.7–71.5, then it will go back to oscillating up and down.

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