Recently, I’ve been pondering a question: how can we trade in the crypto space to consistently make profits? Many people say, since the market goes up and down, I can go long when it’s rising and short when it’s falling, so I can seize all opportunities. It sounds reasonable, but the more I study, the more I realize it’s not that simple.

First, let’s talk about shorting. Theoretically, it’s indeed very tempting. Being able to profit during a downtrend, combined with the convenience of leverage tools, seems like opening a door to a new world. Also, the logic behind technical analysis predicting rises and falls is fundamentally the same. If you can correctly identify one direction, why not use two strategies simultaneously? Plus, the sense of superiority when successfully shorting definitely beats going long.

But there’s a question I’ve thought about for a long time. I’ve analyzed Bitcoin’s data from 2013 to 2021—more than 8 years—and found that the number of days it rose and fell is almost evenly split, roughly 54% up and 46% down. Yet, Bitcoin’s price went from $134 to over $47,000, a 350-fold increase. What does this tell us? It indicates that the gains and losses are fundamentally asymmetric. When you go long, you make big money; when you short, at most, you earn a little change.

Let me give a concrete example. If you invest $100 and buy at $1, then it rises to $50, you end up with $5,000. But if you short $100 at $50 and it drops to $1, you only end up with $198. That gap is crucial. Shorting has an inherent profit ceiling—no matter if your prediction is correct, your gains will keep shrinking. Leverage doesn’t change this pattern.

More importantly, cryptocurrencies are still in their early stages, and there’s potential for hundreds of times growth in the future. In such a long-term bullish market, going long is simply riding the trend. Shorting, on the other hand, is like picking up coins in front of a bulldozer. Even if you make money, it’s not really smart.

Some might say, “Then I’ll short in a bear market and go long in a bull market to balance things out.” But my answer is: that doesn’t work. The characteristics of shorting—poor risk-reward ratio, deflation of returns, and going against the big trend—hold true even in a bear market. Shorting is like poison; drinking it for a year is deadly, even for half a year it’s still poison.

So, what should we do? My approach is to adjust position sizes rather than switch strategies. When I’m optimistic, I allocate 70% to 100% of my capital; when uncertain, about 50%; and when bearish, around 30%. This way, I profit from upward moves and accumulate coins during downturns, always keeping chips on hand—ready to attack or defend. Compared to frequent shorting, this approach is more practical for ordinary retail investors.