Huatai Securities: The better-than-expected non-farm payrolls in March indicate resilience in the U.S. labor market. Inflation is currently the core variable in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

MetaMuskRat · 2026-04-04T04:09:48+00:00

People's Financial News, April 4th — Huatai Securities believes that the non-farm payrolls in March exceeding expectations demonstrate the resilience of the U.S. labor market. However, under the conflict in the Middle East, high oil prices have a more significant impact on inflation expectations and are more critical to Federal Reserve monetary policy. Recently, the escalation of the Middle East conflict has continued, with the Strait of Hormuz blockade causing a supply gap in crude oil that pushes up oil prices and inflation expectations. Currently, inflation is the core variable in the Fed's monetary policy. The dual goals of employment and inflation give the Fed some room to maneuver, avoiding rate hikes to combat inflation. Moreover, as inflation expectations rise, even if the Fed does not raise interest rates, the Treasury yield curve may shift upward, effectively tightening monetary conditions.

MetaMuskRat

2026-04-04 04:09:48

People’s Finance Network, April 4 (report). Haitong Securities believes that the stronger-than-expected rebound in March nonfarm payrolls shows the resilience of the U.S. job market, but amid conflicts in the Middle East, the effect of high oil prices on inflation expectations is more critical for the Fed’s monetary policy. In recent days, the Middle East conflict has continued to escalate: the oil-price jump and inflation expectations driven by an oil supply shortfall caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Inflation is currently the core variable in the Fed’s monetary policy. The Fed’s dual goals for employment and inflation give it some room to maneuver—avoiding rate hikes to counter inflation—and with inflation expectations heating up, even if the Fed does not raise rates, the Treasury yield curve may rise, resulting in a tightening in a practical sense.

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