#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 BTC short-term market analysis and forecast: Limited rebound height, continued decline expected!

1. The price is still oscillating near below the 50-day upward trend line, with buying and selling volumes roughly equal; the next rebound peak is estimated around 68.3k USD, with a maximum rebound to about 69k USD.
2. The order book shows large-looking buy orders, but the accumulated volume isn't very big; sell orders are also stacking up but are relatively small. Therefore, the price may continue to push upward, but the height is limited.
3. Yesterday, spot ETF institutions net outflows of 173 million USD. ETF institutions are both attacking and retreating; the bear market has not bottomed out, and rebounds are opportunities for ETF selling. There are no signs of ETF institutions accumulating large amounts of BTC.
4. Overall view:
1) The conflict among the three Middle Eastern countries is intensifying with no signs of easing. The U.S. military has begun bombing Iran’s civilian infrastructure, including water treatment plants; Trump has issued nuclear-level threats. The U.S. has deployed 50k troops in the Middle East, and a ground attack on Iran is only a matter of time. The Strait of Hormuz has become the core area of U.S.-Iran rivalry, and oil prices are expected to soar to $150, increasing global economic pressure and inflation.
2) Warren Buffett and Li Ka-shing are both selling assets to realize cash, preparing for a possible upcoming financial crisis. U.S. stocks, including Tesla, have plummeted 20%, and high-tech stocks are in danger.
3) Bitcoin is unlikely to perform well either. After falling to around 65.6k USD, it weakly rebounded, with an estimated rebound high between 68.3k and 69k USD. BTC is oscillating and lingering below the 50-day upward trend line, with a very high probability of entering the fifth wave of the weekly main decline.
4) When BTC rebounds above 69k USD, shorting is a good trading strategy. However, bulls are fighting desperately. The current price is unlikely to drop sharply immediately, but the Federal Reserve will release CPI data on April 10, which could be a false alarm or a trigger for Bitcoin to initiate a sustained decline.