After three years, why does Guizhou Moutai choose to raise its price again—during the winter downturn of the baijiu market?

Ask AI · How will the dual price hikes for Maotai Baijiu affect the market landscape?

After three years, the ex-factory price of Feitian Moutai has been raised again. After this latest increase, the contract sales price for 53% vol, 500ml Feitian Moutai goes up from 1169 yuan per bottle to 1269 yuan per bottle, an increase of 100 yuan per bottle in the ex-factory price. In addition to the ex-factory price increase, the retail price in Moutai’s self-operated sales system is also raised from 1499 yuan per bottle to 1539 yuan per bottle. In other words, this time Feitian Moutai has achieved simultaneous price hikes for both the ex-factory price and the retail price.

In the past twenty years, the ex-factory price of Feitian Moutai has gone through three stages: rapid price increases, a cooling-off period, and steady price increases.

Among them, from 2004 to 2012, the frequency of ex-factory price hikes for Feitian Moutai was relatively high—almost once every 1 to 2 years. However, given that the ex-factory price at the time was relatively low and the base was small, the room for each increase was not large.

After 2012, the entire baijiu industry went through a credit crisis, and under the impact of the “ban on alcohol 1.0,” demand for baijiu consumption was hit. From 2013 to 2017, Feitian Moutai did not carry out any price hikes. These four or five years were also arguably Moutai’s most difficult period.

In 2018, the ex-factory price of 53% vol, 500ml Feitian Moutai was raised again, from 819 yuan per bottle to 969 yuan per bottle. The last time prices were increased was in November 2023, when the ex-factory price of Feitian Moutai rose from 969 yuan per bottle to 1169 yuan per bottle. Over nearly six years, it raised prices twice in succession.

This time, Feitian Moutai’s ex-factory price increased by 100 yuan per bottle. Although the room for this increase is smaller than the previous two rounds, the timing of the price hike has come earlier.

According to market expectations, maybe it won’t see a new round of price-hike window until 2027 or 2028. However, this time the price-hike timing was brought forward to March 2026, which is much earlier than expected.

Compared with previous times, this time Feitian Moutai also raised the retail price, from 1499 yuan per bottle to 1539 yuan per bottle. The last adjustment to Feitian Moutai’s retail price took place in 2018, when the retail price rose from 1299 yuan per bottle to 1499 yuan per bottle.

After six years, Feitian Moutai’s retail price saw an increase, achieving the goal of dual price hikes for both ex-factory and retail prices. For Moutai, this has a meaning that is far from ordinary.

Behind the dual price hikes for both the ex-factory and retail prices of Feitian Moutai, it reflects that the market price of Moutai liquor has gradually stabilized. The recent irrational downward trend has basically come to an end. Only sustained stability in market prices and wholesale prices is the basis and confidence for Moutai’s price increases.

It is worth noting that this time Feitian Moutai’s dual price hikes occurred while the baijiu industry was still in a stage of deep adjustment. Against the backdrop of other baijiu brands facing a slowdown in sales growth and loosening price systems, Feitian Moutai chose to raise prices decisively. This shows that Moutai’s influence position in the baijiu industry is continuing to rise, and its pricing power is becoming even more solid.

Entering 2026, Moutai has launched a series of market-oriented reform actions. The proportion of direct operations is further increased. 53% vol, 500ml Feitian Moutai has continued to remain in a state of tight supply and demand on i茅台, and the consumer base has also been further expanded. This market-oriented reform by Moutai is clearly very successful.

This time, Feitian Moutai’s dual price hikes of ex-factory and retail prices are built on the foundation of tight supply and demand for Feitian Moutai liquor, and also on the premise that Moutai’s consumer base has expanded and its pricing power has become even more secure.

The increase in Feitian Moutai’s ex-factory and retail prices has obviously eased the downward pricing pressure on other first- and second-tier baijiu brands. Once there are concrete signs that Feitian Moutai’s wholesale price and market price have stabilized, the other first- and second-tier baijiu brands’ pressure to lower prices and sales pressure will also be significantly improved. This “dual price hike” by Feitian Moutai will have a positive and beneficial impact on the entire baijiu industry, or may shorten the overall winter period for the baijiu industry.

Next, the data from Guizhou Moutai’s quarterly report will become the focus of market attention. If this set of financial results far exceeds market expectations, it will bring a significant boost to the entire baijiu industry.

Author statement: personal views, for reference only