Strait of Hormuz, big news! Trump's latest statement! Crude oil plummets! Gold and silver surge straight up!

Topic: Uncertainty from the outside is becoming clear—A-shares may shift from defense to offense

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Big news has once again come out of the Middle East, as major assets are seeing violent fluctuations.

In the morning, crude oil opened sharply lower. As of the time of this report, WTI crude oil prices are down more than 4%.

On gold and silver, the two major precious metals have surged. As of the time of this report, spot gold is up more than 1.4%, breaking above $4,500; spot silver is up more than 2.3%. Meanwhile, COMEX gold is up nearly 3%, and COMEX silver is up more than 4%.

All three major U.S. stock indexes fell across the board. The Dow fell 0.18% to 46,124.06 points; the S&P 500 fell 0.37% to 6,556.37 points; and the Nasdaq fell 0.84% to 21,761.89 points.

Most China-concept stocks declined. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 0.43%. In terms of individual stocks, Hesai Technology fell by more than 14%; Xinyi Technology fell by more than 4%; Autohome fell by more than 3%; Bilibili fell by more than 3%; and Qifu Technology fell by nearly 3%.

The factors mainly driving the market’s trajectory are still the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran.

According to a report by CCTV News, the U.S. government submitted to Iran, via Pakistan, a ceasefire-ending proposal containing 15 conditions. The plan covers the nuclear program, missile capability, and regional issues.

It is said that the main U.S. demands include: Iran dismantling its existing nuclear capabilities, committing not to develop nuclear weapons, banning uranium enrichment on its own soil, transferring about 60% of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, dismantling nuclear facilities such as Natanz and those at Isfahan and Fordow, and allowing the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to conduct comprehensive inspections. At the same time, the U.S. also requires Iran to stop supporting armed forces of regional partners, prohibit providing funding, command, and weapons support to them, and limit the size and range of ballistic missiles—only for defensive use—while ensuring the Strait of Hormuz remains open.

As a condition in exchange, Iran may receive comprehensive lifting of international sanctions, U.S. support for its development of civilian nuclear projects, and the cancellation of the “fast-track” sanctions restoration mechanism.

据了解，美方正考虑推动为期一个月的停火，以便就上述条款展开进一步谈判。该方案由包括贾里德·库什纳和史蒂夫·威特科夫在内的特朗普顾问推动。

The U.S. President Trump said in the White House that the U.S. has “won” in its actions against Iran, that Iran has been “completely defeated,” and that the current situation is not a “conflict of equal strength,” but rather that Iran’s side has been “thoroughly weakened militarily.”

Trump said that Iran “has no navy, no air force, and lacks effective defensive capabilities,” that the U.S. has an absolute advantage in related actions, and criticized some media for describing the situation as a “standoff,” saying that it “does not match the facts.”

He also noted that the U.S. has the ability to carry out further strikes on Iran’s key infrastructure, but emphasized that it hopes to end the conflict through negotiations to avoid more losses. Trump said, “This conflict can end,” but did not make a definite judgment about the outcome of a final agreement.

On the nuclear issue, Trump reiterated that Iran “will not have nuclear weapons” and said that the U.S. previous military actions had “destroyed its nuclear capabilities.” He also said that if he had not withdrawn from the JCPOA, Iran might have “already obtained nuclear weapons.”

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责任编辑：韦子蓉