Fourth consecutive day, the front page headline of the Economic Daily again refutes the "China's economy has peaked" theory.

【Editor’s Note】

Today’s issue of the Economic Daily《经济日报》 published on its front page the lead editorial comment titled “Refuting the ‘China Economic Peak’ Theory.” This is the paper’s fourth consecutive day placing editorial commentaries in a prominent position on the front page, refuting erroneous narratives about China’s economy that are being promoted by overseas media.

On April 1, the Economic Daily《经济日报》 published an editorial comment on the front page titled “Refuting the ‘China Shock Theory’.” The article points out that behind the “China Shock Theory” lies Western anxiety. By hyping up the “China Shock Theory,” it cannot obscure the fact that current trade protectionism is hindering the development of the world economy.

On April 2, the Economic Daily《经济日报》 published on the front-page headline an editorial comment titled “Refuting the ‘China Economic Slowing Down’ Theory.” The article says that the strategic calm and the wisdom in responding—steadily moving forward toward long-term progress—not only continuously update China’s coordinates toward higher-quality and better development, but also muffles the voices claiming that China’s economy is “slowing down.”

On April 3, the Economic Daily《经济日报》 published on the front-page headline an editorial comment titled “Refuting the ‘China Economic Governance Failure’ Theory.” The article says that some people cannot accept the historic changes in the comparative landscape of international forces. They will also put forward narratives with no factual basis to confuse people’s understanding, stubbornly clinging to outdated, domineering rules and hegemonic order.

As China has recently announced its economic growth target for the new year, the narrative in Western media that disparages China has once again flared up. This time, the refreshed version is the “China Economic Peak” theory.

In 2025, China’s total economic output crossed the 14-trillion-yuan mark for the first time. On a high base, it continues to grow steadily, which the world has clearly witnessed. At this juncture, those spreading gloom and doom are disseminating pessimistic sentiments, attempting to undermine the public’s confidence in China’s economic prospects—the intent is obvious.

An economic peak—what kind of “peak” is it? Is it the size of the economy, the growth rate, or development quality and growth momentum? From an objective analysis, no matter which level one looks at, “China’s Economic Peak” runs counter to facts.

First, look at quantity and speed. After the release of China’s 2025 economic data, some Western media have hyped up the widening gap in total economic output between China and the United States. However, the real situation is that GDP calculated using nominal growth rates does not account for factors such as inflation. If, instead, purchasing power parity (PPP) is used—incorporating price differences between countries—then according to estimates by institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, China’s GDP is already leading the world.

For years, China has continuously been the largest contributor to global economic growth. As the economy’s scale has grown, a 5% growth rate corresponds to an economic increment of more than 5 trillion yuan, which is equal to the total economic output of a medium-sized country for one year. Admittedly, after decades of rapid growth, China’s economic growth rate has slowed somewhat in recent years. But such a slowdown is a scientific adjustment made by our country to promote high-quality development and facilitate economic transformation and upgrading, in line with general规律 of economic development in modern countries. Asserting that a country’s economy is determined by a short-term change in a single indicator will only lead to misinterpretation.

Next, look at quality and efficiency. Doubts about the “quality” of China’s development boil down to three aspects:

First, the claim that China’s growth momentum is insufficient. This narrative only sees difficulties some traditional industries face in transforming and upgrading, while ignoring how new industries, new business forms, and new models are continuously emerging and reshaping economic momentum.

Today, China is continuously increasing R&D investment, and the growth of new momentum is unstoppable. In 2025, the output of 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new-energy vehicle products grew by 52.5%, 28.0%, and 25.1%, respectively. Some traditional industries are accelerating their climb toward the upper end of the value chain, becoming important engines for cultivating new growth momentum and new advantages. A well-known consulting firm in the UK directly said, “This is the first time in history that emerging economies have taken their place at the very front of technology.”

When observing a country’s growth momentum, total factor productivity is a key indicator. After industrialization is basically completed, countries where total factor productivity continues to grow are more likely to cross the middle-income trap and enter the ranks of high-income countries. And just last October, an authoritative global database—Penn World Table compiled by the University of Pennsylvania—corrected China’s total factor productivity from 2009 to 2023 to show an overall upward trend, with an average annual growth rate of about 2.1%.

This is an important data revision. It deprives those who question whether China’s productivity will no longer increase of their support, and confirms that technological progress is precisely the key driving force behind China’s economic growth.

Second, the claim that China’s demographic dividend has disappeared. This narrative attributes China’s slowdown to population aging, without recognizing that China’s “demographic dividend” is shifting into a “talent dividend.”

A population turning point is not an economic turning point, and the number of people is not the most important factor for judging a country’s development trend. Turning manpower advantages into talent advantages can offset losses caused by aging. Because compared with the number of laborers, what matters more for economic development is effective labor—namely, the product of labor quantity and labor education levels.

China’s shift in this regard is particularly pronounced. In terms of quantity, China’s labor force resources are about 968 million people, ranking among the top globally. In terms of population quality, in 2025, the average years of schooling for China’s population aged 16 to 59 has reached 11.3 years. Considering the combined average education years of both newly entering market labor and retiring workers, effective labor is still increasing.

A large reserve of talent gives China more opportunities to nurture disruptive technologies. The emergence of applications such as DeepSeek also shows that China’s “engineer dividend” is starting to pay off. Each year, China trains more than 5 million graduates in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics. The overall pool of talent and the total number of R&D personnel are both the highest in the world, laying a solid foundation for technological innovation.

Third, the claim that China’s domestic demand has limited staying power. This narrative claims that China’s policy efforts are not strong enough, resulting in slow consumption upgrades, and it completely fails to see the vigorous life of China’s consumer market.

It is not a matter of “insufficient effort.” Rather, people have not understood the logic behind China’s policy making. A flood of broad-based measures and ultra-strong stimulus are not the direction of China’s policy approach. Just look at this year’s 《政府工作报告》. Phrases such as “implementing plans to increase income for urban and rural residents” and “clearing away irrational restrictions in the consumption sector” are all pragmatic measures that fundamentally boost consumption.

Although consumption is a slow-moving variable, in 2025 China’s service consumption such as cultural and sports leisure and transportation travel has achieved double-digit growth. From international experience, during the late stage of industrialization, developed countries generally experience a U-shaped pattern of investment rate decline and consumption rate increase. China is currently in the same process, with its consumption structure shifting from a survival- and material-oriented model to a development- and service-oriented model.

In the rising aroma of everyday life, China’s new consumption trends are written all over it. “Supert Liga”-style events catching on, LABUBU booming worldwide, Hanfu sparking a wave of enthusiasm, and ticket demand for performances so high that getting one is “hard”—each consumer highlight is like a new sprout breaking through the soil, containing enormous potential for driving China’s long-term prosperity, and will continue to flourish.

China has gone from poverty-stricken beginnings to where it is today, going through all kinds of difficult challenges. In the past, the country did not collapse because of the “China Collapse Theory.” Now it also will not peak because of the “China Economic Peak” theory. Looking ahead, China’s economic advantages are strong and its potential is great. With more than 1.4 billion people forming a massive demand market, more than 200 million skilled talents bringing a rare dividend, and a complete industrial chain and supply chain system becoming a global “testing ground” for new technologies, together with reforms that never stop and opening that does not cease, immense potential will be unleashed and will continue to generate energy.

“Repeat after me: never underestimate China.” This is what the Bloomberg News wrote as one of the “most important insights of 2025.” And the people of China have even more confidence in this!

（Source: Economic Daily《经济日报》）