Jinan pork prices are "halved," with front leg meat at 5.9 yuan per jin, ribs dropping to single digits, but black pig meat prices remain firm | New Yellow River Market Exploration

Ask AI · Why is black pork still holding strong even as ordinary pork prices fall?

“Front leg meat is 5.9 yuan per jin, and spare ribs have dropped to the ‘single-digit’ range.” Recently, the decline in pork prices has drawn attention and sparked heated discussion among residents. Since the beginning of 2026, the price of hogs has continued to trend downward, hitting the lowest level for the same period in nearly 7 years.

On March 31, a Xinhua Yellow River reporter visited multiple supermarkets and wholesale markets in Jinan and learned that pork prices in the market have fallen noticeably overall, but overall sales have remained stable. Liu Zongzheng, a senior animal husbandry specialist at Qingdao’s Animal Husbandry Workstation, analyzed that the drop in pork prices was driven by multiple factors, including weak demand after the holidays, excess supply, and rising feed costs.

On-the-ground market observations: Spare ribs fall below 10 yuan, black pork prices stay firm

In a wholesale market in Huaiyin District of Jinan, the price tags hanging prominently on the pork stalls showed: front leg meat at 5.9 yuan per jin and hind leg meat at 6.9 yuan per jin. Even more eye-catching is the price of spare ribs: the prices for the front, middle, and rib sections are 9.8 yuan per jin, 14.8 yuan per jin, and 19.8 yuan per jin, respectively.

“The current prices are indeed cheap. Before the year, spare ribs could sell for fifteen or sixteen yuan per jin; now they’re only around eleven or twelve yuan per jin.” A meat retailer told the Xinhua Yellow River reporter.

Ms. Wang (a pseudonym) spent a long time picking out items at the stall, and she said, “Pork prices really have dropped a lot. I haven’t seen prices this cheap in a long time.”

However, during the reporter’s visit, one exception was also found—black pork. Although the price of ordinary white pork continues to fall, black pork prices remain firm, staying around 30 yuan per jin, with very little fluctuation.

According to monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, as of 14:00 on March 31, the national average price of pork in agricultural product wholesale markets was 15.31 yuan per kilogram, down 1.0% from the previous day.

In this round of decline, the drop in hog prices (the live hog purchase price) is far more severe than the decline in terminal meat prices. According to data from China Hog Network, as of April 1, the price of Shandong hogs (wai santuan) was 10.19 yuan per kilogram, continuing a slight dip compared with the end of March.

Image from China Hog Network

Expert analysis: High slaughter-out numbers lead to oversupply; black pork stays firm due to its long cycle and high costs

Liu Zongzheng noted that on the demand side, spring is typically a seasonal low period for pork consumption, with demand weak. On the cost side, influenced by the international situation, prices of hog feed raw materials rose slightly, leading to higher breeding costs. “Under this double squeeze, hog farmers face losses, which triggers panic-driven concentrated slaughter-out, further pushing down market hog prices.”

“The decline in hog prices is much greater than the decline in market pork prices.” Liu Zongzheng explained. “Hog prices are the live hog purchase price, while terminal meat prices include costs from slaughtering, processing, transportation, and other links.”

For slaughtering enterprises, this is a favorable window. “When the price of live hogs is below 10 yuan, slaughtering companies have ample space to stock up and can see an increase in order volume.” A staff member at a slaughtering enterprise said.

Regarding the price difference between ordinary white pork and black pork, Han Donglu, an animal husbandry and veterinary professional at Shandong Greenman Agribusiness Technology Co., Ltd., provided a professional explanation: “First, there is a difference in production cycle. Ordinary white hogs can be slaughtered out at about 5 months, while black hogs need 10–12 months. Black hogs are mostly local breeds with fewer piglets per litter, and they are mainly raised in free-range or semi-free-range conditions, which results in higher total cost. In the market, black pork is mostly a mid-to-high-end product, with prices around 30 yuan per jin. The market positioning they face is different from that of ordinary white hogs, so their price structure is relatively independent and is less affected by shocks in ordinary hog market conditions.”

Image from the official website of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China

Outlook: A rebound may come in the second half; hog farmers’ mindset becomes more rational

In the face of the continuing downward trend, people in the industry generally hold a “cautiously optimistic” view.

Although current hog prices are down 29.8% year-on-year and pork prices are down about 17.8% year-on-year, the market has not shown extreme panic. Some merchants said, “Apart from selling to residents, the wholesale sales to restaurants have also stayed relatively stable.”

Industry insiders expect that, as regulatory policies gradually take effect—such as the state’s reserve purchases and storage of frozen pork—combined with peak consumption seasons in the second half like the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, hog prices will see some rebound in the second half. “Because market conditions have been better over the past two years, this year’s brief period of low prices is bearable,” said the insider.

Reporter: Sun Yu Photographer: Sun Yu Cameraman: Sun Yu Editor: Sun Yu Editor-in-charge: Bo Lingjun Proofreader: Yang Hefang