Will the Non-Farm Payrolls data be distorted? Fed’s Daly says: Don’t just focus on the employment numbers!

Fed’s Mary Daly’s recent remarks may be changing the benchmark for how we observe macroeconomic trends.

Employment numbers are no longer the only thing to watch: Daly believes that it’s not necessary to create as many new jobs each month to maintain the employment rate. This means that even if the Non-Farm data “shrinks,” it doesn’t necessarily indicate that the economy is weak.

The unemployment rate is the “true indicator”: Compared to employment numbers, fluctuations in the unemployment rate now better reflect the real health of the labor market.

A signal of policy shift: As long as the unemployment rate doesn’t blow up, the Fed’s tolerance for declines in Non-Farm Payrolls data will increase.

If the market no longer panics just because Non-Farm Payrolls are slightly lower, this “soft landing” expectation is a long-term positive for risk assets (BTC/ETH). Don’t let monthly data fluctuations shake you out of the trade—keep a close watch on this red line: the unemployment rate!

Do you think there’s still some distortion in the current employment data? How many more interest-rate cuts do you think the Fed will make this year?