Hello everyone, I am Ah Hao. We are currently in the mid-stage of a bear market. Assuming 76,000 is the rebound endpoint from 60k, and then another wave of decline similar to the 97,900→60k drop occurs, then the most intense wave of decline in the bear market will be basically complete. At that point, the total decline from 126,000 will have reached 80%-90%.

But in a bear market, you can't just look at the decline and price; another important dimension is time. If in Q3 2026, BTC drops to 52,000 or even 48,000, we will enter the late stage of the bear market. This period may manifest in various forms: a golden pit, wide-range oscillation, narrow-range oscillation, or even extreme sideways trading.

Each phase will be met with doubts about the cycle: when it drops to 80,600, people will be reluctant to believe the bull market has ended and the bear market has begun; when it hits 60k, some will hope the bear market is over; later, when it falls to four or five ten-thousand, others will doubt whether Bitcoin will go to zero or if crypto is doomed. I have been in this market for 8 years, and every cycle, someone dreams "this time is different," but the final outcome is always the same—the cycle has never changed.

Spot position building is not yet the time. In the first quarter of this year, my main operations were contract trend shorts + some swing longs (for example, the recent long from 80,600 and the battle between 60k, 62,500, and 63,000 rebounds), but I have never believed that the bear market will end early or that the bull market will arrive prematurely.

Looking at the smaller timeframe in Chart 2, I further refine the two trend scenarios I mentioned yesterday:

The red route remains unchanged: recently, the price broke below 65,000, then found support around 62,000-63,000, leading to a rebound. After the rebound ends, the price will continue to decline, ultimately breaking below 60k.

The blue route details the recent scenario where the price does not break below 65,000: first, a rebound occurs, and after reaching the rebound's end point, the price still continues to decline, ultimately breaking below 60k as well.

In summary, in April, we are highly likely to see a decline similar to the 97,900→60,000 wave. After this decline structure from 126,000 completes and transitions into a consolidation phase, I might start building a spot position.