Shanghai's second-hand home transactions reached 1,585 units in a single day, the highest in nearly five years. Industry insiders: The market is clearly warming up.

How do favorable policies catalyze Shanghai’s second-hand housing market to reach a new high in nearly five years?

Shanghai’s housing market “little spring” is vibrant.

According to monitoring data from Anjuke Shanghai, on March 28 (Saturday), the number of online signing transactions for second-hand houses (including commercial properties) in Shanghai reached 1,585 in a single day, not only breaking the record for single-day transactions this year but also surpassing the previous peak record of 1,473 on March 15, 2025, setting a new historical high for single-day online signing transactions in Shanghai’s second-hand housing market in nearly five years.

As of March 28, the cumulative online signing volume of second-hand houses in Shanghai for March has reached 27,733 units, an increase of 8% year-on-year, and the weekly transaction volume continues to set new highs. From March 2 to March 8, the weekly transaction volume for second-hand houses in Shanghai was 5,709 units, indicating that the market began to gradually recover after the Spring Festival; from March 9 to March 15, the weekly transaction volume reached 7,233 units, showing a significant acceleration in the warming pace; just a week later, from March 16 to March 22, the weekly transaction volume broke new ground again, with 7,488 units signed online.

Meanwhile, since March, the single-day online signing performance of second-hand houses has been impressive. As of March 28, there have been 10 days with transaction volumes exceeding 1,000 units, of which 6 days had single-day transactions surpassing 1,300 units. According to monitoring by agencies, such a high transaction density has not been seen since 2021.

In light of the current sustained high transaction rhythm, industry insiders have also made optimistic predictions for the total transaction data for March. Zhang Bo, the director of the 58 Anjuke Research Institute, predicts that March’s second-hand housing transactions in Shanghai are expected to reach and exceed 30,000 units. If monthly transactions reach 30,000 units, it will match the level of the same period in 2021, which belonged to the tail end of the previous housing market boom in Shanghai. However, he believes that looking only at the monthly level is insufficient for setting the tone and that subsequent transaction volume and price over the next 2-3 months must also be considered.

The industry generally sets the monthly transaction volume of 20,000 units as the “line of prosperity and decline” for Shanghai’s second-hand housing market, while 30,000 units is seen as the boundary for the market to enter an active cycle.

Lu Wenxi, a market analyst at Zhongyuan Real Estate, believes that the current transaction volume clearly indicates a significant market recovery. In his view, the current heat is more of a bottom recovery signal driven by rigid demand, and the market will require more time to fully recover.

From the demand structure perspective, rigid demand housing remains the core support for the market. Data from Zhongyuan Real Estate Shanghai shows that entry-level housing priced below 3 million yuan is highly sought after, with its transaction share rising to 72% in the first half of March, and the absorption efficiency of rigid demand housing continues to improve.

Lu Wenxi believes that based on past market practices, it is usually the rigid demand products that lead the market first, followed by gradual transmission to first-time improvement housing, and then further to high-end improvement and other higher-tier products, with the entire replacement chain gradually becoming active.

With the continuous increase in transaction volume, the supply-demand contradiction in the second-hand housing market has also been effectively alleviated. Data from Shanghai Lianjia shows that after the release of the “Seven Policies” in Shanghai, the number of second-hand houses listed by Shanghai Lianjia decreased by 8% compared to the same period last year, mainly benefiting from the increase in transaction volume post-policy, with the transaction growth rate exceeding the new listings growth rate.

According to Li Gen, the head of the Shanghai Lianjia Research Institute, the homeowner mentality has shifted from an initial “urgent to liquidate,” to “wait-and-see and reluctance to sell” before the Spring Festival, and then to rational price adjustments after the Spring Festival. This adjustment in homeowner mentality is beneficial in reversing the previous situation of “exchanging price for volume,” and from the market response, the overall bargaining range is currently narrowing.

Lu Wenxi further pointed out that since August 2025, the number of second-hand houses listed in Shanghai has entered a downward channel, with previously urgent sellers having basically completed their exits. At this stage, homeowners are listing more rationally, and panic selling has gradually disappeared, with the supply side of housing returning to a steady state.

Yan Yuejin, vice president of the Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, believes that the release of favorable policies and the recovery of demand in the first quarter have laid a solid foundation, and market confidence has significantly recovered. In the second quarter, under the continued loose policy environment and support from rigid and improvement demand, the heat of “golden March and silver April” is expected to continue moderately, and the market will maintain a stable operating condition, presenting a positive outlook of stability and improvement, and a virtuous cycle.