Analysts: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Face Worsening Losses, MVRV Indicator Shows Continued Bear Market Pressure

On March 30th, Cryptoquant analyst Darkfost published an article stating that the current Bitcoin price is fluctuating in the $65,000-$70,000 range, significantly below the average cost basis of short-term holders, which is estimated at $85,900.

Almost all investors who entered the Bitcoin market in the past six months are currently at a loss. This is clearly reflected in the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) indicator, which has fallen to bear market valuation levels. This metric compares the market capitalization to the on-chain realized cost basis to determine if the market is undervalued or overvalued.

The current MVRV for short-term holders is approximately 0.77, significantly below the neutral and reasonable level. At the end of February this year, the indicator even dropped to 0.7, meaning short-term holders had an average unrealized loss of nearly 30%. When the MVRV for short-term holders remains in a low negative range for an extended period, it is typically not an optimistic signal. This indicates severe pressure on the short-term holding group, leading to increased market volatility and a more fragile and unstable market. However, according to historical patterns, such phases are often suitable for accumulating long-term positions in batches. During these bottoming-out cycles, the market often presents excellent accumulation opportunities for patient investors.