Chinese robotics shift from "technological breakthroughs" to "market explosion" valuation logic changes

“The current embodied intelligence industry in China is at a critical turning point from ‘technological breakthroughs’ to ‘market explosion.’”

Zhang Yimin, former chief scientist of Intel China and chief scientist at the Advanced Integration Research Institute of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, stated at the first Overseas Investment and Comprehensive Service Expo (OIF 2026, hereinafter referred to as the ‘Sea Expo’) during the Science and Technology Robot Industry Ecosystem Forum that although the entire industry still faces many challenges such as technological maturity, ethics and privacy, as well as cost and market acceptance, China is establishing a leading position in the global embodied intelligence competition due to its advantages in the entire industry chain and market scale.

Industry Leap: From Technological Breakthroughs to Global Competition

Liu Xiaoming, invited vice president of the China International Investment Promotion Association, suggested during his keynote speech at the aforementioned ecosystem forum that the robot industry is ushering in a triple windfall of policies, technologies, and markets, and that China has the most complete supply chain and the richest application scenarios in the world. The key to future development lies in higher-level innovation platforms, more efficient outbound channels, and closer industrial ecosystem collaboration.

Liu Xiaoming proposed three suggestions, such as adhering to policy guidance and deeply cultivating technological innovation; strengthening ecological collaboration to grow stronger together; and maintaining a global pace to go out at a high level. In the process of globalization, it is necessary to connect e-commerce, overseas channels, and cross-border services systems, allowing Chinese robots to achieve high-quality, compliant, and branded outbound, establishing global discourse power.

In Zhang Yimin’s view, there is no need to wait for general artificial intelligence to mature completely; solving 60% to 70% of the problems in specific tasks can already realize the application of robots. Currently, robot shipments are mainly focused on scientific research, but in the future, they will expand to diversified scenarios such as industry, business services, and home elderly care, with robots entering the home elderly care sector expected to become a reality in the next 3 to 5 years.

Zhang Yimin proposed that there are four core directions for breakthroughs in embodied intelligence: the development of large models and world models for embodied intelligence, edge-side real-time inference optimization, robot body upgrades, and the integration of cloud-edge-end and human-machine collaboration. He emphasized that going abroad with embodied intelligence is not merely about selling products; it requires deep integration with local service systems and sharing after-sales resources to reduce enterprise costs.

Zhang Xin, an analyst of intelligent hardware at Dolphin Investment Research, analyzed that domestic companies occupy an important position in the upstream components field of robots due to their technological synergies, cost control, and rapid response advantages, but there exists a situation of “strong hardware, weak software.” Future opportunities are concentrated in four directions: hardware localization cost reduction, breakthroughs in emerging hardware fields, tackling large software models, and “going abroad.” He suggested replicating the outbound path of new energy vehicles, but it is necessary to assess geopolitical, supply chain, and human resource risks.

Kang Jingwei, chairman of Keton Group, stated that the AI industry follows the “five-layer cake” theory of “energy - chips - infrastructure - large models - applications,” and embodied intelligent robots, as the top application of AI in the physical world, need to connect the entire industry chain. Chinese robot companies have been international since their inception and should leverage global technology and local industry chain advantages to serve the global market.

Valuation Restructuring: Capital Pursuing ‘Profitable’ Hardcore Capabilities

Against the backdrop of the industry moving towards an explosive period, the valuation logic of the capital market is undergoing profound changes, shifting from chasing technological narratives to focusing more on real scene demands and order conversions.

At the investment and financing roundtable during the aforementioned ecosystem forum, Wang Jiawei, founder of Zenar Consulting, opened with a piece of data: According to incomplete statistics, from 2026 to now, the robot sub-sectors have completed over 190 financing rounds, with amounts exceeding 20 billion yuan. Following the historic high set in 2025, it is almost certain that 2026 will set another record high.

Liu Yang, vice president of PIX Moving, stated that the industry has shifted from “valuing future expected income” to “pricing based on past stable income,” with capital requiring that financing funds must be used for industrial implementation and order creation. He emphasized that urban service scenarios, due to their high repetitiveness and structured characteristics, are becoming a high-quality entry point for the industrialization of embodied intelligence, which can accelerate technological implementation through “dimensionality reduction of scenarios.”

Chen Zhen, founder of Qian Chuang Capital, indicated that early investment hotspots were concentrated in entity companies, but the localization of core upstream components is the foundation of the industry, with technological breakthroughs in reducers, sensors, and other areas possessing greater long-term value. Chen Zhiling, head of Gong Entropy Investment, reminded that there is a need to be cautious of the hardware valuation bubble in high-end embodied intelligent robots, as industrial customers pay particular attention to cost recovery within 18 months; companies that can enter real demand scenarios possess investment value.

Regarding the investment preferences of different capital entities, the industry generally believes that dollar and technology funds focus on cutting-edge technologies such as tactile sensors and simulation mechanics; industrial capital pays attention to replicable scene implementations; and government-guided funds emphasize industrial implementations and job creation, with high concern for projects like data factories. Looking ahead, the closer the link to customers, the stronger the pricing power will be, and deep cooperation between upstream and downstream will become an inevitable trend. Investment hotspots will concentrate on scaled shipping scenarios, independent data providers, and industrial mergers and acquisitions, with compliance capabilities becoming a core competitive advantage for enterprises.

Xu Renjie, a partner at Jinghe Law Firm, stated that companies are placing greater emphasis on refined structural building before financing, with cross-border structural planning and wager clause design becoming increasingly rigorous, and founders’ joint liabilities generally having upper limits set. Therefore, it is recommended that companies establish a three-dimensional intellectual property protection system and lay out data compliance and AI ethical risk prevention in advance.

(Source: Yicai)