Henrik Zeberg and His Bold Predictions: A Two-Year Retrospective

The renowned analyst Henrik Zeberg, known as the host of The Zeberg Report with over 150,000 followers on X, drew the attention of the crypto community in August 2024 with a provocative thesis: He warned of the “worst recession since 1929” and made very concrete predictions about the timing of the next market peak. Today, more than a year and a half later, it is worth reflecting on these prophecies and how reality has unfolded.

Henrik Zeberg’s Forecast: October 2024 as a Turning Point

Originally, Henrik Zeberg urged his followers to focus on the end of 2023. However, this date passed without his grim prediction coming true. In March 2023, he adjusted his course, initially pushing the expected market peak to August 2024. Ultimately, there was another adjustment: Henrik Zeberg announced that the peak for cryptocurrencies and smaller assets would not be reached until October 2024. This enormous market euphoria, he reasoned, would then turn into a massive crash.

Henrik Zeberg was particularly specific about his price predictions for Bitcoin. Based on the Fibonacci indicator, he calculated a possible peak at $120,000 – a price target that was considered extremely optimistic at the time. Behind this was the idea of a “blow-off” top, meaning a final euphoric rally before the big crash.

The Elliott Wave Principle as a Theoretical Anchor Point

Henrik Zeberg’s analysis was based on the Elliott Wave Principle, a technical analysis model that has been used to describe market cycles since the 1930s. According to this theory, markets move in five phases upward and three phases downward. Henrik Zeberg argued that we were approaching the end of the fifth phase – the point at which the massive correction should begin. This correction could, in his estimation, put Bitcoin under pressure by 60 to 80 percent.

The Elliott Wave theory provides a structured framework for market predictions, but like all technical indicators, its reliability remains controversial. Henrik Zeberg used this approach as his tool for predicting market dynamics.

Resistance to Zeberg’s Thesis: The Skeptic @PhilakoneCrypto

By 2024, Henrik Zeberg was not alone with his predictions – and not all market observers agreed with his optimism. Twitter user @PhilakoneCrypto spread a much darker perspective. He was convinced that the bull market had already peaked and that Bitcoin would not rise to new all-time highs. His prediction called for a low of $28,000 in July 2026 – a scenario that anticipated a massive crash.

@PhilakoneCrypto admitted that his previous price target of $54,000 had to be corrected down to $28,000. In his view, it would then take four years or longer for Bitcoin to rise to new records in a new cycle.

The Reality in March 2026: What Actually Happened

Today, nearly two years later, a more nuanced picture emerges. Bitcoin was trading at about $66,390 in March 2026, significantly below the historical high of $126,080, but also far from Zeberg’s $120,000 prediction or the low that @PhilakoneCrypto had forecasted.

Events unfolded differently than both analysts had predicted. Neither did the expected October 2024 peak occur, nor the subsequently predicted catastrophe. Instead, the market exhibited a more volatile but not completely collapsing behavior. Henrik Zeberg and other analysts were incorrect with their precise predictions – a lesson about how difficult it is to predict markets with exact accuracy.

Lessons from Two Years of Market Volatility

Experience shows: Even renowned analysts like Henrik Zeberg can miss targets with technical models and theoretical frameworks. The Elliott Wave Principle and the Fibonacci indicator are helpful tools, but they are not a perfect oracle. Henrik Zeberg has corrected himself multiple times, which is not necessarily a sign of untrustworthiness, but rather that the market remains unpredictable.

The volatility and unpredictability of the crypto markets persist even in March 2026. What remains is the insight that even well-founded predictions can be fallible – and that a certain humility before the complexity of the markets is warranted.