Top 10 Brokerage Strategies: Adjustments Are Opportunities! Stay Committed to China's Advantageous Manufacturing Industry

CITIC Securities: Uphold China’s Competitive Manufacturing Industry, Await April’s Decision

Last week, after Trump’s TACO, the situation in the Middle East may present a subtle balance where both warring parties maintain mutual deterrence while preventing the situation from spiraling out of control. The fact that supply chains remain disrupted has not changed, but there is a possibility of intermittent navigation before a ceasefire agreement is reached. In an environment where global rules and order are gradually deteriorating, countries with resources, geography, and manufacturing advantages will fully leverage these comparative advantages to seek survival and development. In the context of the Middle Eastern conflict, intermittent blockades of the Strait of Hormuz could serve as a tool to counterbalance U.S. and Israeli actions, increasing the likelihood of ongoing and repeated disruptions to energy supply.

However, the impact of disruptions in energy and resource supply on industrial demand may differ from the 1970s and 1980s when Europe and the U.S. were already undergoing deindustrialization, production outsourcing, and the early stages of globalization. The two oil crises actually accelerated this process, while we are currently in a phase where countries worldwide are experiencing heightened insecurity and pushing for reindustrialization. This is the biggest contextual difference and will influence future analytical frameworks.

From the perspective of direct impacts, the acceleration of global electrification, the shift of orders from overseas to domestic, and increased supply chain diplomacy are three directions worth paying attention to in the future. The short-term capital market remains in a phase of emotional cooling, and a loss-averse mentality may generate some demand for reducing positions. In terms of allocation, it is recommended to continue to uphold China’s competitive manufacturing industry and patiently await April’s decision.

Guotai Junan: Adjustments Are Opportunities, Allocate to Chinese Assets

After recent market adjustments, an important bottom and inflection point is emerging in the Chinese stock market. First, China’s energy consumption from oil and gas accounts for less than 30%, which is below the global average. Diverse reserves and energy transitions have increased China’s resilience to risks. Second, China’s relatively stable security situation, stable socio-economic conditions, complete supply chain systems, and positive industrial progress are rare even in global comparisons. Third, in recent communications with long-term overseas capital, a significant marginal observation is that under the chaos overseas and high exposure to U.S. stocks, foreign capital is reevaluating China’s rise and industrial advantages, as well as the misalignment with low allocations to China.

Market adjustments are, in fact, opportunities, and it is recommended to actively allocate. Finance and stability remain the first choice, with high dividend yields offering allocation value. We are optimistic about Chinese technology manufacturing, such as power equipment and new energy/energy metals/engineering machinery, as well as semiconductors/communication equipment/mechanical equipment in the AI field. Policy deployment stabilizes investment, and coupled with rising inflation, is expected to drive replenishment demand, recommending construction materials/building/hotels/consumer goods.

Huatai Securities: Seeking Certainty Under Weak Balance

The intertwined geopolitical situation has led to tightening global liquidity expectations, with market trading sentiment being extremely cautious. In the context of changing macro pricing logic, the micro-game within the market has intensified, with funds beginning to look for certainty amidst energy shocks (such as lithium batteries, etc.). However, it is essential to note that in a shrinking market environment, the sustainability of a single sector’s rise faces challenges, making the core focus of the game the “cost pass-through” ability within the industry chain. Looking ahead, the current weak balance is about to face multiple windows of testing.

In the future, external geopolitical variables and internal “pre-holiday effects” may put pressure on trading activity. However, from a cross-month perspective, as April approaches, with a concentration of financial report disclosures, the market’s pricing anchor is expected to gradually penetrate emotional disturbances and return to fundamental validation. In terms of allocation, it is advisable to moderately focus on coal, the electricity chain, and chemical raw materials that are potential beneficiaries of high oil prices and have pass-through capabilities, while using low-level essential consumer goods as a bottom position.

CITIC Construction Investment: Keep a Close Eye on Middle Eastern Changes, Seize Chinese Competitive Assets

The U.S.-Iran conflict has cooled somewhat, leading to a recovery of panic in global markets. However, the latest deployment plans of U.S. troops regarding Iran still indicate the risk of escalation in warfare, necessitating attention to market sentiment fluctuations in the coming month. Currently, the A-share market has undergone substantial adjustments, and one can await buying signals and choose the right timing to allocate. Going forward, A-shares should focus on industries benefiting from energy security and high inflation, high cash flow products, and growth sectors that may have been mispriced, including sectors such as coal chemicals, new energy, energy storage, lithium battery materials, pesticides, fertilizers, coal, hydropower, AI computing power, metals, innovative drugs, and consumer goods.

Zhongshan Securities: Focus on Substantive Actions of Capital Market Stability Mechanisms

Recently, the market has faced strong liquidity shocks, but from a funding perspective, there are no significant risks. First, the current main incremental financing and private equity are in profit and have a high safety margin, so there will be no downward negative feedback. Second, recent ETF flows have continued to show net outflows, and important institutional investors have yet to enter the market. Finally, the return of funds from the Middle East will, at a narrative level, promote market upward momentum, which belongs to a high-probability medium- to long-term event that is hard to refute in the short term. “Whether to believe” is more important than “what it is,” and narratives will to some extent become self-fulfilling.

Looking forward, there is limited room for A-shares to continue to decline significantly. The core observation signal for a phase bottom lies in when substantive actions will begin for the capital market stability mechanism. Future focus should be on petrochemicals, coal, construction materials, chemicals, shipbuilding, poultry breeding, and electricity, which have a relatively high or improving prosperity.

Shenwan Hongyuan: Reassessing the Stability of China’s Capital Markets

Reiterating that stagflation itself carries uncertainties, both China and the U.S. are not on a baseline monetary hypothesis. At the same time, the potential upward clues for A-shares are far from fully priced in. High prosperity in new energy + subsequent export chain alpha and pass-through capability verification → Middle Eastern capital pricing + foreign capital inflow resonance → A-shares reflecting the impacts of energy security and supply chain safety. This may constitute a clue for A-shares to return to a strong state more quickly. Both upward and downward risks have not been fully priced in; short-term A-shares are not in stable balance but also have neutral pricing. In the short term, global capital markets are still pricing around the eventful catalysts of the U.S.-Iran conflict, and it is not yet time for heavy bets. A-shares are still in a medium- to long-term upward cycle, with the profit effect accumulating facing disturbances, but this is merely prolonging the “first-phase rise” resting period, and a “second-phase rise” for A-shares remains highly probable.

During the oscillation and adjustment stage between the two phases of rise, the extension of the technology mainline + the expansion of macro narratives will still be the main source of high-elasticity investment opportunities. In the strong tech “re-realization” direction before the U.S.-Iran conflict, there are still opportunities in the short term, focusing on CPO, energy storage, and AI electricity. In the next phase, new energy and new energy vehicles may become new leading directions. This is a direction that may resonate with macro narratives, having upward elasticity and a diffusion of profit effects.

Galaxy Securities: Where Is the Resilience of A-shares from a Global Perspective?

Under repeated external geopolitical disturbances, the A-share market has experienced considerable volatility over the week, with overall investor sentiment being weak, and major indices continuing their adjustment trend, although the declines have shown signs of narrowing compared to earlier periods. Looking ahead, the evolution of the U.S.-Iran conflict still carries significant uncertainty, and the suppressive impact on global risk assets is unlikely to fade in the short term. Until the conflict trajectory becomes clear, coupled with the marginal tightening of global liquidity brought about by rising inflation expectations, global equity markets are likely to maintain high volatility characteristics, with A-share trends primarily digesting through oscillation. However, amidst external uncertainties, domestic certainty advantages are highlighted, strongly supporting the resilience of the A-share market. The main lines of energy security, self-sufficiency, and industrial upgrading are clear, possessing stronger defensive attributes and cost-effectiveness in allocation. With the concentrated disclosure of annual and quarterly performance reports, sectors with high performance certainty and continuously improving prosperity will become the core focus of funds. In terms of allocation, we remain optimistic about the dual mainlines of technology sector-driven industrial dynamics and cyclical sector price increase cues in the medium to long term.

Guotou Securities: 2026 and 2021, the Fate of Rebalancing

Currently, oil prices remain high, and regardless of TACO, the upward shift of the oil price central point leads to undeniable inflation stickiness heading into the second quarter, meaning that a significant macro shift has already occurred in the medium term. Therefore, it is necessary to cautiously assess the probability of global economic stagflation or even recession; if it occurs, global equity assets will become very passive, corresponding to a reduction in positions rather than structural adjustments. A round of grand “rebalancing allocation” within the year is unavoidable, which means some varieties may never return, and it also signifies the need to bravely say goodbye to many varieties that have benefited greatly in the past three years due to prior logic increases and heavy positions; one must be psychologically prepared for this.

Currently, I tend to believe that it resembles the “structural adjustment” model of 2021, corresponding to a scenario of moderate inflation + resilient global economy + strong dollar. At present, the new and old rebalancing (technology/cyclical) has been validated, with the internal financial attributes of resource products declining and commodity attributes recovering also validated. The internal rebalancing of technology + going overseas is still ongoing. Currently, varieties represented by power equipment and new energy, which are mid-to-upstream overseas products, will be an indispensable part of the “2026 Ning combination.”

Dongwu Securities: Seeking Mid-term Certainty Amid Geopolitical Expectation Fluctuations

Geopolitical conflicts have replaced AI industry logic, becoming the current core pricing factor in the market. The long-term bull market for A-shares has not been negated, and we can analyze and discuss two extreme scenarios: First, if the war eases beyond expectations, A-shares will return to their original endogenous logic from a total perspective; second, in a low-probability scenario where geopolitical conflicts escalate or persistently drag out, leading to overseas stagflation, oil prices may rise to a central point of $150–200. Both extreme scenarios correspond to the index being unlikely to “stop at 4200” from a medium-term perspective. Considering the risk-reward ratio, the current market has entered a “bullish and long” zone, where excessively pessimistic sentiment irrationally amplifies losses, creating favorable odds under a bull market; however, due to the asymmetry of risk and potential rewards posed by low-probability “overseas stagflation,” there is a need for some hedging adjustments in the position structure. The “additive” approach can follow two principles: First, the micro-logics that differ from the pre-war AI industry trends dominate the global main equity markets, while energy becomes anti-fragile, and the upward shift in oil prices may likely become another important logical clue for subsequent trends; this portion of the holdings should also be able to hedge certain tail risks of “overseas stagflation”; second, to opportunistically increase positions in directions relatively independent of prosperity logic.

Western Securities: Before the Big Drop in U.S. Stocks, This Indicator May Flash Red

Last Friday night, Iran once again closed the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S.-Iran conflict may escalate, intensifying global disturbances. Various signs indicate that the global market is in a state of high-level resonance. Similar to the sharp declines in stock markets worldwide following the U.S. “reciprocal tariffs” in early April last year, the current escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict may also trigger liquidity shocks in U.S. stocks and global assets. Historical experience shows that before an outbreak of liquidity shock events in U.S. stocks, there will likely be at least three instances of “stocks, bonds, and currencies all falling” in the U.S., and after the 3rd or 4th instance of “stocks, bonds, and currencies all falling,” all types of assets, including gold, will experience significant drops. However, withdrawing during the 3rd instance of “stocks, bonds, and currencies all falling” may help avoid an 80% drawdown. On March 6, the first instance of “stocks, bonds, and currencies all falling” in the U.S. was confirmed. Nevertheless, even if the U.S. experiences three consecutive instances of “stocks, bonds, and currencies all falling,” the liquidity disturbance to A-shares may also be temporary and will not change the “core asset bull” trend of A-shares.

It is advisable to continue to pay attention to energy sectors benefiting from the upward shift in oil prices (oil/chemicals/coal/new energy chain); the agriculture sector (agrochemicals/agricultural products) that completes the “value fill pit” in the super cycle of commodities; and the core Chinese consumption assets (liquor/real estate) benefiting from cross-border capital return and expectations of Federal Reserve QE; as well as offshore assets (Hang Seng Technology) benefiting from a weak dollar and the recovery of China’s consumption fundamentals.

(Source: Securities China)