Geopolitical easing expectations release, crude oil futures sharply retreat and adjust

What considerations does the U.S. have for keeping oil prices below $100?

[Geopolitical easing expectations release, crude oil futures drop sharply] Caixin News, March 24 – As of this afternoon’s close, the main crude oil futures contract on the Shanghai Energy Exchange fell by 8.2%, to 739.1 yuan per barrel, and 662 yuan per barrel, with a daily decrease of 1,305 contracts. The core logic lies in President Trump signaling a strong easing of the conflict, leading the market to believe that the war’s intensity has peaked, and that panic and energy concerns are cooling down, causing crude oil to give back some of its previous gains. Over the past month, every time WTI oil prices approach the $100 per barrel mark, the U.S. has frequently intervened: either by releasing strategic petroleum reserves or by Trump publicly calling for a de-escalation, effectively suppressing the upward trend of oil prices multiple times. This pattern reflects a clear policy bottom line— for the U.S., keeping oil prices below $100 per barrel may be a “tolerable war cost” under the current geopolitical conflict, and it is also a pragmatic choice that balances domestic inflation, livelihoods, and electoral pressures. It is important to note that current peace-related news mainly comes from unilateral statements by the U.S. and Israel, which Iran has quickly denied, indicating that the risk of further deterioration is only temporarily alleviated; therefore, oil prices are gradually stabilizing after a rapid decline, returning to a broad fluctuation pattern.