Huang Lichen: Iran refuses to negotiate directly with the U.S. Gold rebounds face resistance, short-term pressure

On March 26, yesterday Wednesday we believed that after gold rebounded from a bottom on Monday, the denial by Iran of any direct negotiations with the U.S. supported a rebound in oil prices, which in turn drove up the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, limiting the rebound in gold. Additionally, the technical indicators showed that after gold halted its decline and stabilized, there was a short-term demand for a corrective rebound. Therefore, we recommend that everyone pay attention to the breakthrough of the resistance at $4510 above, and if it breaks upward, watch for the resistance at $4600. The support below can be focused on $4400, and then $4350.

From the subsequent trend, after the opening of the Asian market yesterday Wednesday, gold tested upwards, successfully breaking through the 5-day moving average on the daily chart, encountering short-term resistance near $4510, reaching a high of $4602, and meeting resistance at the $4600 round number position. After that, the gold price fluctuated and retreated, stabilizing at $4487 near the close, and rebounding to face resistance at $4542. After the opening on Thursday, gold fell to stabilize at $4489, facing resistance at $4544 during the rebound. After that, the gold price fluctuated and fell, losing support near $4488, accelerating the drop to a low of $4413 and stabilizing. Overall, gold had a short-term rebound on Wednesday, but the rebound was clearly limited, falling back after encountering resistance, maintaining a fluctuating trend, basically running between the $4600 resistance we provided and the $4400 support.

Wolfinance’s star analyst believes that previously, due to the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict, oil prices continued to rise, exacerbating inflation concerns, suppressing interest rate cut expectations, and supporting the rise of the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, which directly pressured gold prices. The gold price fell, once refreshing the low since December last year. After Trump sent the strongest ceasefire signal so far, gold rebounded from a bottom on Monday, starting a rebound trend until it encountered resistance on Wednesday. The rebound in gold prices was still significantly suppressed mainly because Iran remained tough, refusing to negotiate directly with the U.S. and only conveying messages indirectly through mediators. This uncertainty led to a renewed rise in oil prices, putting pressure back on gold prices. Looking ahead, the market is focused on whether there will be substantial easing in the Middle East situation, which will directly determine gold’s short-term trend.

On the daily chart, after gold rebounded from a bottom on Monday, it encountered resistance on Wednesday, temporarily stabilizing and fluctuating around $4400. The support below for gold can focus on the $4400 round number position, where the intraday gold price stabilized close to here, followed by the $4300 round number position, where gold stabilized and rose on Tuesday. The resistance above for gold can focus on the area near $4480, where the intraday gold price fell below, exacerbating the decline, followed by the intraday high of $4544, where the gold price rebounded from the bottom on Wednesday and also encountered resistance, and also focus on the $4600 round number position, where the gold price encountered resistance and fell back on Wednesday. The 5-day moving average and MACD indicator’s death cross are slowing down, the KDJ indicator’s golden cross is slowing down, and the RSI indicator’s death cross is turning downward again, showing that there is a demand for a corrective rebound in gold in the short term, but the rebound suppression is still evident.

Gold intraday reference: Iran’s refusal to negotiate directly with the U.S., the rebound in oil prices drives up the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, and gold rises and falls, facing pressure again in the short term. In terms of operations, it is recommended to treat it with a fluctuating mindset, with support below at $4400 and $4300, and resistance above at $4480 and $4544, followed by $4600.

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Editor: Chen Ping