Goldman Sachs senior trader: The S&P 500 has declined for five consecutive weeks, and historical patterns suggest that the outlook is not optimistic.

[Source: Global Network]

[Global Network Finance Comprehensive Report] Karen Morgan, a senior trader at Goldman Sachs, issued a warning in a report released over the weekend, stating that last Friday was “one of the most unsettling trading days in recent years.” With the S&P 500 Index declining for the fifth consecutive week, historical data indicates that U.S. stocks may face further downward pressure in the short term.

Morgan pointed out in the report that the S&P 500 Index has declined for five consecutive weeks, a phenomenon that has occurred only a handful of times since 1970. The most recent similar trend happened during the panic of the 2022 economic recession. Even during the stock market crash triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic or the market collapse caused by “Tariff Day” last April, the S&P 500 Index did not experience five consecutive weeks of decline.

“Friday was one of the most unsettling trading days in recent years,” Morgan wrote in the report. He further stated that based on this limited historical data set, he conducted a backtest analysis of market performance under similar circumstances, and “the results are not optimistic.”

According to historical backtest data, after the S&P 500 Index declines for five consecutive weeks, the average and median performance over the next three weeks is also a decline. This historical pattern suggests that although the market has already undergone a round of sustained pullback, the selling pressure may not be fully released in the short term.

Market analysts point out that a decline over five consecutive weeks typically reflects deep concerns among investors regarding macroeconomic outlook, interest rate trajectory, or corporate earnings. A similar trend in 2022 occurred against the backdrop of aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, while the current market is similarly facing multiple pressures from recurring inflation, monetary policy uncertainty, and geopolitical risks. (Sailor)