[Red Envelope] March 27: Emotions are chaotic, with high and low cuts. Continue to be optimistic about Merck & Co.; Ouyide is also worth a close look.

Suzhou Spring is Warm, Three Kings Compete for the Cauldron, Electricity Tides Retreat Without Turning Back[Taoguba]

A melodious tune, yet it cannot sing out the full house’s applause.
The spring in Suzhou has ultimately warmed through. The magnolias on Pingjiang Road have fallen, the wisteria in the Humble Administrator’s Garden is gathering strength, the afternoon temperature has climbed to 20°C, even the sound of the pipa is filled with a sense of ease. Today’s market resembles this Suzhou spring scenery—red plates at four thousand three, index recovers to three thousand nine; on the surface, it seems like “the garden is full of spring colors that can’t be contained”; yet that abrupt drop to 18.638 billion in trading volume is like a pink wall in the garden, starkly separating this liveliness into a “half acre square pond.”

For ultra-short traders, today’s market situation is a delicate elimination deep within the garden. Continuous boards, taking one out of thirty, yesterday’s prominent mid-tier stocks have become prisoners today. However, on the high platform, the three gentlemen with four boards are all safe. This situation is akin to the covered corridor of the Canglang Pavilion, separated by a wall, with “clear winds and bright moons being priceless” inside and “close water and distant mountains both have feelings” outside, each possessing its own paradise. But that wall’s leak window only allows one person to glimpse the whole picture. Capital is similar; holding tightly to the pinnacle’s rare flower means giving up the common blooms on the hillside. It is not a grand feast, but a tea ceremony. Only in the purest spots is a hint of ink applied.

The space is momentarily confined to four boards, like a fan surface, limited in size, yet needing to depict the universe. Today, the three writers have distinct styles and essences.

1. Rongjie Co., Ltd. (002192) | 4 consecutive boards | Lithium Battery Master
   • This gentleman is like the “Yellow Stone Rockery” in the Ou Garden, with a solid foundation, exemplifying “logic as stone, emotion as strokes.” The rebound in lithium prices and the Australian winds are solid foundations indeed. The limit order is firm, without fluctuations all day, exhibiting a demeanor akin to “Crown Cloud Peak,” remaining immovable, making him the most stable among the three today.
   • Today’s brush is restrained and not released; if it cannot continue to seal with “iron wire drawing” tomorrow, it will certainly turn to “ink splashing,” and huge divergences are inevitable. Lithium batteries are commodities, like the water surface of the Wangshi Garden, vast with varied phenomena, but encountering this “narrow channel” of reduced volume, it may be at risk of stagnation. Holders of cash may emulate “the other village” of the Liu Garden, waiting for peaks to turn and sufficient turnover before it is time to enter the garden. Forcefully attacking the gate is not the act of a wise person.

2. Xinneng Taishan (000720) | 4 consecutive boards | Lone Peak Standing Tall
   • This gentleman occupies a perilous position, like the “Cloud-Lying Room” in the Lion Grove Garden, perched high, relying on a “vague blank space”—expectations of electricity reform and rumors of restructuring, all shrouded in cloud and mist within the painting. Peers (Hunan Development, Guangdong Electric Power A) have faded in their brushstrokes, yet it stands out alone, relying on the two characters “Taishan” in its name, borrowing a bit of metaphysics’ power, ultimately it is a risky art form.
   • A lone peak without support, high and lonely. Peers in the same sector like Guangxi Energy and Jinkong Electric Power are still lingering in the “curved corridor” of two boards, unable to build pavilions and towers to echo it. Tomorrow’s fifth board would be at the top of “Tiger Hill Pagoda,” with winds rushing and skies high. Once the chips scatter like fallen leaves, it easily becomes a “heron’s cry” situation. This scene is only suitable for viewing from outside, not for being among it.

3. Meinohua (603538) | 6 days, 5 boards (4 consecutive boards) | Exploring the Serene Alley
   • This gentleman takes the “curved path to serenity.” Innovative drug BD going abroad is real, but the trend is more a blend of speculative manipulation—“changing scenes with every step.” 6 days, 5 boards, the popularity is as bustling as the main street of Pingjiang Road, yet a close look at the chips shows signs of loosening, just like tourists jostling, that one voice of Wu Nong’s soft speech is drowned out.
   • The pharmaceutical sector peaked today, like the begonia in the Humble Administrator’s Garden, flourishing but not lasting. Tomorrow’s differentiation is a foregone conclusion. If Meinohua cannot turn weakness into strength quickly and escape the cost zone, it is likely to turn into a “long alley stroll” oscillating trend, losing its explosive power from consecutive boards. Ultra-short players should be alert to its transition from “fast board” to “slow board.”

Mid-tier stock warning:
All stocks that progressed from 2 to 3 yesterday have perished today, indicating that the third board is currently the “broken bridge” in the market. Today’s second board echelon (Guangxi Energy, Shida Shenghua, Shenkong Co., Ltd., etc.) is like the bonsai in the Liu Garden, each exquisite, but tomorrow they will face the brutal “pruning.” In a shrinking market, mid-tier stocks are like “the wind passing through the corridor,” coming quickly and leaving quickly, unless they can position themselves as new mainline leaders, otherwise, they are all just passersby.
**

**
The Broad Waters of Lithium Batteries and the Narrow Alleys of Electricity

1. Lithium Batteries (Main Garden Scene, Broad Waters are Spiritual)
   Today’s strongest windfall, 16 stocks hit the limit. The logic is as open and robust as the water surface of the Ou Garden: lithium carbonate rebound + energy storage production. Rongjie Co., Ltd. is that water pavilion, Shida Shenghua is that curved bridge.
   • Risk points: companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Yongxing Materials, these “big fake mountains” have moved, severely draining liquidity. If tomorrow’s volume cannot expand (i.e., “water” does not rise), who will take over these big stocks? If the peak day does not have follow-up, it’s like spring outings avoiding crowds.

2. Pharmaceuticals (Partial Hospital Blossoms, Fragrance for Self-Appreciation)
   Meinohua leads the way, Wanbangde assists. The logic is innovative drugs going abroad, like the “Dianchun Pavilion” in the Wangshi Garden, having its elegance, but ultimately not the main hall on the central axis. Pharmaceutical stocks traditionally have sluggish characteristics; besides the leading stocks with consecutive board genes, the back rows are mostly high and retreat. Only focusing on Meinohua while ignoring the back row is like enjoying flowers and only picking one branch.

3. Electricity/Green Energy (Corridors Turn Cold, Avoid Deep Alleys)
   The green energy that was once flourishing yesterday has been pressed to the ground today. Hunan Development and Guangdong Electric Power A plummeted, with only a few survivors like Guangxi Energy and Jinkong Electric Power. When a sector’s high-ranking stock (Xinneng Taishan) departs from the sector to revel alone, it is a prelude to “the moon sets and the crows cry.” The electricity sector needs substantial capital to drive it, and in a shrinking market, it has been abandoned by capital, like the dusk-lit Shangtang Street, where the splendor has faded, leaving only the lanterns.

Four, Emotional Setting: The “Garden Law” in Chaotic Periods
Your pointed out “emotional chaotic period” is the most precise note for today. This is neither a retreat nor a main rise, but a Suzhou garden-style “changing scenes”—looking at countless doors, pushing one open may not lead to a path.

1. Chaos Representation: There are 78 stocks hitting the limit across the market, yet only 10 stocks are on consecutive boards. Capital is like visitors in the garden, stopping here (lithium batteries), looking there (pharmaceuticals), yet no one is willing to sit long on the “mid-tier stocks” bench. In a chaotic period, it’s about “recognition,” not “position.”

2. 3-4 board PK battle (Who is the true garden master?):
   ◦ Rongjie Co., Ltd.: Wins in “hardness.” If tomorrow the lithium battery sector does not collapse, it is the most likely to cross over, like the strictness of the Ou Garden.
   ◦ Meinohua: Wins in “liveliness.” If pharmaceuticals peak today, if it can withstand differentiation tomorrow, it will be the true dragon, like the agility of the Wangshi Garden.
   ◦ Xinneng Taishan: Wins in “risk.” With electricity retreating, if it can still seal five boards, it is like the fake mountain in the Lion Grove Garden, appearing risky but actually hollow. I see it as precarious.

3. Next Week’s Opening Prediction (Your predictions are spot on):
   ◦ Low opening drop: 70% probability. The market shrank today, profits are substantial; if it opens low on Monday, it will be an “early spring cold.” That will be a washout, providing a chance to board. At that time, see who withstands the downturn, who will be the true dragon.
   ◦ High opening gap: 30% probability. If good news emerges over the weekend (like lithium prices soaring again), a direct high opening on Monday will be an “early spring walking into summer,” appearing lively but actually overdrawn. If Rongjie opens at a limit, it is likely to explode; if Meinohua opens too high, it will be a point of realization. This trend does not give people an opportunity to board and is rather dangerous.

** The Electricity Sector: Retreating Without Sending Off, Unless High Buildings Rise Again**
Your decision is the dignity of the leading players. Today’s electricity situation is like the Shangtang Street past the time of the pig, the lights are still on, but the crowd has dispersed.

1. Retreat Evidence: Hunan Development and Guangdong Electric Power A, which were core yesterday, directly pressed the nuclear button today. This is not divergence, but retreat. Although Xinneng Taishan is at 4 boards, it no longer has sector support and has become a lonely minister.
2. Discipline of Leading Players: In a retreat period, do not look, do not recite, do not look back. Unless it can rise high again next week—i.e., Xinneng Taishan seals five boards, and Hunan Development covers the gap, and the sector returns to a peak. Otherwise, it is like an outdated ballad artist; even if they sing beautifully, there are no listeners.
3. The Heartbreak of Suzhou Sentiment: Suzhou people are shrewd; when the tea is cold, they change to a new cup. This cup of electricity tea has gone cold today. Unless it boils water itself and brews again, we will only drink that cup of hot tea called “lithium battery” or “pharmaceutical.”

** Tomorrow’s Strategy: The “Choosing Roads” and “Avoiding Crowds” of Suzhou Spring Outings**
Being in Suzhou, one should learn the shrewdness of Suzhou people—though the spring colors are beautiful, do not join the bustling crowds. If tomorrow’s market continues to shrink, the strategy is simply eight characters: go weak, keep strong, manage positions and trial errors.

1. 4 to 5 decisive battle (Three Gardens Compete for Supremacy): Rongjie Co., Ltd., Xinneng Taishan, and Meinohua will certainly have a battle tomorrow. Whoever first increases volume and turnover to seal five boards will be the new cycle dragon. If all three break boards, then empty positions to rest, like encountering rain, returning home for tea.
2. Avoid mid-tier stocks (do not wander into nameless alleys): Absolutely do not touch stocks progressing from 2 to 3, unless they can position themselves as new mainlines (very low probability).
3. Pay attention to new themes (search for the unnamed garden): If lithium batteries differentiate, where will the funds flow? Chemicals (Jinmei Technology) or commercial aerospace (Shenkong Co., Ltd.) or a new garden.

The spring in Suzhou is the magnolia of the Ou Garden, the night of the Wangshi Garden, and the “other village” of the Liu Garden. Doing ultra-short trades should be like this—seeking that bit of truth in chaos, guarding that peace during the retreat. If electricity retreats, let it retreat; if lithium batteries rise, then watch them rise. Heart like the Suzhou River, water flows slowly, boats travel slowly, no rush, no competition, just waiting for the wind to come.

The review was penned at the moment the bell at the Hanshan Temple outside Suzhou City had yet to ring, three thousand worldly affairs, merely a game of chess.

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This article is merely my personal review notes and does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky; investing requires caution. @Liu Shuyi