China-U.S. Tech War: Who Will Win the Global Quantum Computing Race?

Investing.com – Intensifying U.S.-China technology competition is increasingly focused on quantum computing, with both countries viewing the field as a strategic asset with far-reaching economic and national security implications.

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A recent report from Jefferies highlights that, from encryption-breaking and cracking to secure communications and advanced defense systems, quantum technology is now considered a key driver of geopolitical dominance alongside artificial intelligence and semiconductors.

China has adopted a highly centralized, state-led approach, incorporating quantum computing into its latest five-year plan, listing it as one of seven cutting-edge technologies, and committing about $16 billion in public funding—roughly four times what the U.S. government has invested to date.

By contrast, the U.S. ecosystem is more fragmented, driven by a network of more than 40 companies, national labs, universities, and hyperscale cloud service providers. Government support emphasizes funding, benchmarks, and validation rather than picking national champion firms.

China currently leads on multiple key metrics, including accounting for about 60% of global quantum patent applications, and producing a larger volume of academic research outputs.

According to data cited in the report, China also dominates in broader key technology research areas, leading in 66 of 74 categories tracked globally—showing its growing scientific impact. However, leadership varies by factor area, and in several core research areas—such as quantum sensors and computing architectures—both countries are essentially tied.

Meanwhile, the U.S. maintains a competitive edge in innovation diversity and depth in the private sector. Large tech companies are actively investing in a range of quantum hardware approaches, which could prove crucial as the industry matures. This fragmented model may allow for faster experimentation and breakthrough innovation, even though China benefits from advantages in scale and coordination.

Despite the heavy focus on national security, the commercialization of quantum computing has already begun. Companies in both countries are generating early revenue through government contracts, corporate pilot programs, and quantum computing-as-a-service platforms. One example cited in the report shows that a Fortune 100 company used quantum optimization technology to achieve an approximately 20% performance improvement.

Looking ahead, Jefferies expects key policy catalysts—including potential U.S. executive orders and China’s proposed $120 billion national entrepreneurship guidance fund—to accelerate development.

The report predicts that a broader commercial inflection point will emerge between 2028 and 2030, indicating that while China may have a near-term advantage in scale and coordination, the U.S.’s fragmented innovation ecosystem may ultimately play a decisive role in shaping long-term global leadership in the quantum computing race.

This article was translated with the assistance of AI. For more information, please see our Terms of Use.