Goldman Sachs: Expect Middle East transportation disruptions to continue until mid-April, revise up Asian oil prices and CPI inflation forecasts

GateUser-bd883c58 · 2026-03-28T15:50:01+00:00

Goldman Sachs expects Middle East transportation disruptions to continue until mid-April, pushing up Asian oil prices and CPI inflation, but with significant differences among countries. South Korea, China, and Japan are almost unaffected due to subsidies, while Thailand and the Philippines see increases exceeding 1 percentage point. The impact affects Asia's growth forecast, with India and the Philippines possibly raising interest rates.

GateUser-bd883c58

2026-03-28 15:50:01

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Why Does the Disruption of Transportation in the Middle East Lead to Significant Inflation Differences in Asia?

[Goldman Sachs: Middle East Transportation Disruption Expected to Last Until Mid-April, Raises Oil Price and CPI Inflation Forecasts for Asia] Financial Associated Press, March 24 - Goldman Sachs released a research report stating that the disruption of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz is expected to last until mid-April, pushing up energy prices. The bank raised its forecast for the average crude oil price in Asia for the remainder of this year by 30% and increased its Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation forecast by an average of 0.6 percentage points. However, there are significant differences within the region; South Korea, China, and Japan, due to their subsidy mechanisms, will see an impact of nearly zero, while Thailand and the Philippines will see increases of over 1 percentage point. Therefore, the bank has lowered its growth forecasts for India, the Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore by more than 0.5 percentage points and shifted to a more hawkish policy stance, expecting interest rate hikes in India and the Philippines, while canceling previous expectations for rate cuts in Indonesia.

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