Barclays: Long-term blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a daily loss of 14 million barrels of supply in the global oil market

Barclays Bank stated that if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues for more than a few weeks, the global oil market could lose up to 14 million barrels of supply per day.

According to reports, the British investment bank said in a report on Thursday that a long-term disruption of the world’s most important oil transportation chokepoint would result in a daily supply loss of 13 million to 14 million barrels—an enormous shock.

However, Barclays analysts noted that there is a high degree of uncertainty regarding both the scale of the supply loss and the duration of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

They wrote, “Despite the uncertainty around ceasefire negotiations, under our baseline scenario, we expect shipping in the Strait to return to normal by early April, which is consistent with our forecast of an average Brent crude price of $85 per barrel in 2026.”

But Barclays indicated that if the blockade lasts until the end of April, Brent crude prices could rise back to $100 per barrel; if the blockade extends into May, it could further rise to $110 per barrel.

Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs stated that the peak supply loss caused by the U.S.-Israel war against Iran could reach around 17 million barrels per day, while also raising its forecast for the average Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate crude prices in 2026.

In early Asian trading on Thursday, Brent crude was priced at $105 per barrel, up 3%, following signs that Iran may not be interested in ceasefire negotiations.

West Texas Intermediate crude also rose 3% to $93 per barrel, as the Asian market urgently sought crude oil linked to Brent— the region has clearly felt the supply shortage, and the price spread between U.S. benchmark crude and Brent crude remains large.

According to estimates from Kpler, as of March 20, supply disruptions in the Middle East have reached 10.7 million barrels per day. Kpler analysts stated that if the situation in the Strait of Hormuz does not improve, this number could rise to 11.5 million barrels per day by the end of March and persist throughout April. The analyst noted that short-term remedies for supply losses, such as releasing inventories and lifting sanctions, “can only delay, but not offset, the increasingly widening structural shortage.”

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