Can the RMB exchange rate stabilize within the "6 yuan range"?

In the foreign exchange market, China’s currency, the Renminbi (RMB), has strengthened. On January 5, the RMB/U.S. dollar exchange rate reached the range of 1 U.S. dollar to 6.97 yuan, marking the highest level of RMB appreciation and dollar depreciation in 2 years and 8 months. Factors such as the continuously accumulating trade surplus have brought pressure to sell dollars and buy RMB. To avoid an economic downturn, relevant Chinese authorities have shown a controlling stance toward RMB appreciation.

Annual trade surplus first exceeds $1 trillion

On December 30, 2025, the RMB at one point rose to 1 U.S. dollar to 6.9870 yuan, breaking through the important level of 7 yuan and intensifying appreciation. This was the first time since May 2023 that the exchange rate had broken above the 7-yuan threshold. On January 5, 2026, it rose again further to 1 U.S. dollar to 6.9770 yuan.

In mid-April 2025, when U.S.-China trade frictions reached their peak, the RMB exchange rate had fallen to 1 U.S. dollar to 7.3518 yuan, the lowest level in 17 years and 4 months. After the U.S. and China reached an agreement in May 2025 to reduce tariffs, the exchange rate began to rebound, up 5% from the April 2025 low point.

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