[Red Envelope] What does it matter if 4,500 companies are falling? Taking lobster mining power as an example, share the current market patterns and trading methods!

Aside from geopolitical conflicts over the weekend, the hottest topic without a doubt is lobsters. Brokerage firms have characterized this trend as: AI applications have transitioned from Q&A to practical assistant roles, officially entering the era of intelligent agents. Therefore, this directly benefits AI applications and computing power. However, during this period, the market strategist often tells investors that capital is becoming less sensitive to themes, mainly because the emphasis on value investing and cracking down on irrational speculation has led companies with related themes but low barriers to value to struggle to generate profits. Naturally, funds are no longer blindly chasing these. AI application companies vary in quality, and performance certainty is lower than that of hardware companies like chipmakers. After the lobster fermentation, trading on computing power aligns more with institutional “value investing.” [Taoguba]

Review

Looking at today’s market, oil and gas sectors opened collectively higher, while technology sectors showed divergence. The lobster, which should have been capped by quantitative measures, instead gained market attention due to divergence creating a gap for capital entry. This divergence at the open provided enough space for funds to operate. Therefore, core stocks in some computing sectors—such as Tuowei Information, Huasheng Tiancheng, Wangsu Technology, Runze Technology, and Capital Online—should be monitored at low intraday levels for potential gains. But if you miss the low intraday points and want to chase in the afternoon, the relatively safer option is Zhongjun Tuowei Information.

However, given the current market environment, the strategist strongly discourages chasing high, even for leading stocks like Pingtan, Aerospace Development, and Lio. Since the deliberate suppression of Lio Shares, market tactics have fundamentally changed. Short-term liquidity has exited the stage, and whether it will return is uncertain. Quantitative funds now dominate the market. Think about it: whenever good news appears, quantitative funds quickly seize expectations, suppressing the market’s overall height. The remaining space is limited, and chasing high becomes a headshot zone. The market is always evolving. True traders never get abandoned by the times; they only reshape themselves amid change.

Regarding the integrated power sector, our pre-market view was divergence expectations. Last Friday’s focus on China Western Electric also provided a decent intraday high-level exit opportunity. That’s why we advocate focusing on core stocks—core stocks have multiple lives!

Major Market Cycles: After a collective gap-down at the open, the three major indices rebounded from their lows, closing with total turnover exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan, a 3% increase from the previous trading day. Although it appears to be a volume increase, it’s actually a game of funds in local hotspots. The overall market remains weak and has not formed genuine resonance. This volume increase should instead alert us to the risk of profit-taking after divergence, so avoid fighting the market.

Short-term Sentiment: 1,375 stocks rose, 3,715 fell; 42 stocks hit the daily limit up, 3 hit the limit down. The scene of over 4,500 stocks declining in the morning highlights the fragility of market sentiment. Currently, it’s best to either stay in cash or focus on the newly fermented themes, buying low on divergence.

Theme Directions: Power, Computing Power, Petrochemicals

Power: Shun Na, Jinkai New Energy, China Western Electric, Dongfang Electric
Divergence within the power sector is expected. Don’t assume that because of Friday’s integrated power stocks, today will be a strong bullish day. The core stocks China Western Electric and Yueneng Holdings set the tone for today’s expectations—they are the central and high-level representatives of the sector. Both show divergence today, so power stocks are naturally prone to divergence as well. Don’t expect a quick rebound tomorrow; over-optimism is a gamble. The power sector has already run for a week, so it’s considered a high-level theme.

Computing Power: Tuowei Information, Huasheng Tiancheng, Meili Yun, UCloud, YunSai ZhiLian
Due to news of possible US ceasefire, computing power stocks saw a rebound during the session. Lobster fermentation last weekend already created divergence expectations for this sector, making it one of the key directions this week. However, under the environment of quantitative trading, progress won’t be smooth. Focus on capacity and core recognition for low buying points. At least today, the older trend stocks in computing power are safe; tomorrow, watch for divergence continuation.

Petrochemicals: Shandong Molong, Intercontinental Oilfield, Tongyuan Petroleum, China Petroleum, CNOOC
All opened high in the morning, but divergence played out during the session. The US-Iran situation remains unresolved, so oil prices will fluctuate repeatedly. Avoid stocks driven by news.

Summary: In extreme market conditions, prioritize defense. Currently, the most predictable sector is computing power. After divergence correction, there may be some rotation, which is relatively certain. Power has already risen for a week; this week is more divergent, and a rebound may not be strong. Avoid petrochemicals to prevent getting caught in the crossfire.

Opportunities are only for those prepared. Keep an eye on my updates to stay in sync with the rhythm. Your likes, support, and tips are my greatest motivation to keep sharing. Let’s build momentum together and establish a solid reputation for our community, witnessing each other’s growth. If you have questions, leave comments—I will respond seriously. Let’s move forward side by side, exploring more possibilities.

The core of the strategist’s trading system boils down to five key points: anchor to the cycle, select leading stocks, control key nodes, manage positions well, and maintain cognitive discipline. Beginners can learn to avoid detours; experienced traders can optimize by benchmarking. Those who have traded in the market understand that short-term trading isn’t about scattered buy-sell skills but about a practical trading system—this is the confidence to survive bull and bear markets and achieve stable profits!

1. Anchor to the cycle, control style and positions
   Market conditions change rapidly. Operating logic varies greatly between pro-cyclical, counter-cyclical, and chaotic cycles. Blindly following the trend leads to losses. The first step in the strategist system is to judge the cycle, then match the appropriate trading style and position size.

• In pro-cyclical phases, market sentiment is high, funds are abundant, and a “resonance” strategy is used. Style is aggressive, with 60-70% positions (adjust as needed), focusing on trend dividends.
• In counter-cyclical phases, volatility is high, and tolerance is low. The focus is on defense—holding high-recognition targets, with positions compressed to under 30%, avoiding fighting or overconfidence.
• In chaotic phases, tighten the line and take profits when conditions are good.

2. Identify main themes and focus on core stocks
   Regardless of bull or bear markets, there are main themes. The core leading stocks are the top short-term choices. We advocate focusing only on core stocks—these are the consensus of all funds, with the strongest logic, popularity, and liquidity. They resist declines in downturns and lead gains in upturns, offering far more tolerance and profit potential than miscellaneous stocks! Many investors spread their bets across many small stocks and miss the main trend. The system emphasizes “less but better”: abandon scattered bets, focus on main themes. Have you tried concentrating on leading stocks and experiencing a doubling wave?

3. Recognize key nodes and time your trades
   In short-term trading, timing is more important than stock selection! Even the best leader can suffer losses if the timing is wrong. All buy and sell actions revolve around key nodes—this is the core of rhythm control and increasing win rate.

• When the main theme’s divergence first turns into consensus, it’s a clear signal to start. It offers the lowest risk and highest cost-performance ratio.
• When divergence turns back into consensus later, it indicates emotional continuation—this is a good time to add or lock in profits.
• During market peaks, beware of top signals—reduce positions without opening new ones, lock in gains. When the rhythm is right, profits come naturally.

4. Tiered position management and risk control
   Profit depends on attack; survival depends on defense. Position management is the “lifeline” of short-term trading!

• Ever experienced heavy positions causing big drawdowns? The tiered position strategy adjusts positions based on the cycle, using positions to counter market uncertainty.
• During major upward cycles, allocate 4-5 layers of positions to a core stock to capture trend dividends.
• During chaotic cycles, use only 1-2 layers to avoid large setbacks.
• Limit to two core trades per day; avoid frequent operations and reckless adding. Controlling drawdowns ensures long-term stability.

5. Maintain cognitive bottom line and avoid impulsive trades
   The most frightening thing in the market isn’t loss but operating beyond your understanding! The core principle: stay within your cognition, never touch outside patterns, and avoid impulsive trades.

• Don’t chase stocks you don’t understand.
• Abandon opportunities outside your system.
• Taoguba isn’t short of luck-based winners, but ultimately, those who rely on luck lose it back. It’s better to earn less with skill than to chase luck. Stable profits come from discipline, not luck.

Short-term trading isn’t that complicated. Master this system, simplify complex logic into practical guides, and whether in good or bad times, you’ll find your rhythm and avoid most pitfalls. One last reminder: trading is a long-term practice. You need both methods and patience. Follow the system calmly, and you’ll steadily seize opportunities!

A tip equals a bit of love. Supporters’ tips and time spent exchanging ideas are not only recognition but also fuel for your own growth. Only through high-level thinking can cognition be grounded. That’s why our core fans understand: “Investing in cognition will eventually deepen your account.” If your cognition lags, profits are just luck; if you break through cognition, wealth will naturally follow. Many try to reverse cause and effect—thinking they can get rich first and then contribute effort. But in reality, the most important investment in short-term trading isn’t a stock but your own mind.

Thanks to brothers who support and tip:
@ff2020 @随春风 @风中憩羽 @封鹏飞唑啉草酯 @顺势为王1986 @情绪流孤舟 @山止川行K @圆小二 @短狙作手

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