Recession odds jump on Kalshi after oil tops $100

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A pumpjack near Driscoll, Texas, US, on Sunday, March 1, 2026.

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Prediction market bettors are increasingly expecting the U.S. economy to enter a recession this year as oil prices soar.

Kalshi’s market for whether the U.S. goes into a recession in 2026 jumped above 34% on Monday — its highest level since November, according to data from the platform. Late last week, the market had a likelihood for that outcome at under 25%.

Monday’s jump in recession odds follows the dramatic rally for U.S. oil prices above the $100 per barrel mark. Crude last passed that level in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Middle Eastern producers cut output in recent days with the key Strait of Hormuz passageway closed amid the U.S.-Iran war, raising concern about supply. West Texas Intermediate crude recorded its biggest gain on record last week as the conflict escalated.

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WTI, 5-year

Economists and analysts have warned that the economy could face serious consequences if oil remains above that milestone as higher gas and fuel prices hit consumer and business spending. Monday’s jump in oil prompted a selloff for stocks, signaling more pain ahead for investors after a tumultuous week.

Bettors on a separate Kalshi market predicted an 11% probability that the next U.S. recession begins in the first quarter of this year. Polymarket bettors anticipate a 31% chance of a recession by the end of this year.

Kalshi participants see a roughly 60% chance that the U.S. gas price exceeds $4 this month as crude rallies. The national average for regular gas came in at $3.48 on Monday, according to AAA.

Note that a recession is defined in this Kalshi market as two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product growth. That’s a bit different than the official recession designation that comes from the National Bureau of Economic Research, which declares one based on a more general “significant decline in economic activity” that is widespread and lasts more than a few months.

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