3.9 Review: Oil surges in small lobster trading. Just ask, does it smell good?

Bid Review: Petroleum/Chemicals We first look at the morning bidding. Under the influence of a sharp surge in offshore oil prices, the opening of risk-averse oil and gas stocks was clearly expected to be a straight move. Core targets like Intercontinental and Molong all opened with large orders in a single line, but Intercontinental’s order block of 1.59 billion compared to Friday’s 8 billion in trading suggests that if oil and gas open high and then decline, Intercontinental risks opening the board. Last Friday’s plan already mentioned that if technology stocks open in a straight line on Monday, the risk-averse oil and gas sector would be the unexpected factor. However, as Brent crude oil surged past $120 in the early session, the consistent opening of oil and gas stocks was clearly not an unexpected move! For quantitative trading, where there is consensus, the trend is to cut where the knife points. Therefore, when the oil and gas sector opens strongest, there is no cost-effective reason to chase. This sector can only be approached with low buy-in during divergence to avoid being harvested by quant algorithms. Computing Collaboration In the early session, despite the clear positioning of oil and gas stocks, the technology sector instead became the surprise divergence. Ningbo and Jinkai still opened with straight-line moves amid collective pressure from oil, gas, and chemicals, which was obviously beyond expectations. This indicates that funds have not abandoned the tech sector and still retain room for computing stocks. As long as there is no overwhelming fermentation in oil prices throughout the day, the tech sector, mainly power and computing, is expected to rebound. Therefore, early low buying in tech stocks offers the highest cost-performance. From the perspective of continuous limit-ups, the unexpected leader was Sanhe Wangli. This suggests a continued main upward trend in the 3-4 range. The key point at this stage is undoubtedly Shunna, which opened with typical passive divergence and high volume. As previously mentioned, if the tech sector experiences large divergence, the opportunity outweighs the risk. Not many friends may have taken this to heart. If oil prices do not suppress the opening divergence in tech stocks, core stocks like Shunna will not be available for entry. Based on this analysis, the best short-term trading options today are bidding, mid-day trades, or buying Shunna on the board. Sector Outlook Shunna / Taihao / Meili Y Today, the tech sector shifted from divergence to consensus. The pre-market indication of Shunna, Taihao, and Meili Y opening was below expectations. This suggests early divergence in tech stocks, but the strength of divergence needs to be observed after the market opens. After opening, Shunna quickly hit the limit-up with high turnover, showing strong proactive buying. Tomorrow, a +6% or more gain is expected. However, crossing from 4 to 5 is a hurdle; if Shunna continues to advance and breaks through successfully tomorrow, it will likely boost the entire sector again. Meanwhile, Taihao and Meili Y opened lower and then moved higher. Compared to Friday, today Meili Y’s strength was noticeably greater than Taihao. As the first to advance with reduced volume on Friday, Taihao’s opening below expectations was evident, while Meili Y opened with a red bid and maintained good support in the morning. When computing stocks flow back, funds tend to prioritize stocks like Meili Y for advancement. However, Taihao is not finished; if Meili Y experiences a surge and breaks the limit, watch for Taihao’s potential to rebound and seize the opportunity. Tuwei / Huasheng / Great Wall These are all high-capacity stocks in the sector. In the afternoon, as computing stocks began to flow back, Great Wall was the first to hit the board, leading the flow back. As a pioneer in capacity stocks that successfully led the rebound, tomorrow’s premium will determine the divergence strength of the sector. After Great Wall hit the limit-up, Huasheng assisted Tuwei in advancing to the second board. Many may wonder why Tuwei hit the limit-up while Huasheng pulled back. As mentioned earlier, Huasheng was a core capacity stock with unique advantages in the early stage. Today, Tuwei was more proactive in both the order book and intraday trend, indicating that Tuwei has already overtaken Huasheng as the core capacity stock in the second phase. However, friends holding Huasheng need not worry. Although it pulled back after surging, Huasheng is still not out of the game. It has been consolidating for a week, likely following the trend of Hangdian and Tongding’s five-day moving averages, which are used as a reference. Those unfamiliar can compare their charts. Yunnan Energy / Hangdian These two are clearly a pair of twin stars. Yunnan Energy is strong while Hangdian is weak today. Hangdian, as the first to break the five-day support and initiate the pattern based on Hengbao’s chart, broke down on Friday, which was a warning sign. Fortunately, it closed back above the five-day support today, so tomorrow remains a key observation target. Currently, stocks like Tongding and Jinfu, which follow this pattern, are gradually falling behind. If Hangdian breaks down again, watch for the negative ripple effect on the pattern. Yunnan Energy opened low and closed higher, ending in the red zone, indicating that the trend is still ongoing. If the power sector is to see a major rally, Yunnan Energy must continue to test the regulatory red line. As long as Yunnan Energy does not close with a major negative feedback, it cannot be concluded that the trend has ended. However, Yunnan Energy is also following Hangdian’s five-day pattern. If Hangdian breaks down with negative feedback someday, holders of Yunnan Energy should start to watch for risks. That concludes today’s review and outlook. Reviewing the market is not easy; your likes and follows motivate me to keep analyzing. If you have questions after reading, feel free to discuss in the comments. See you tomorrow!