Iran announces victory! The brokerage conference call was overwhelmed. The latest analysis is here!

Breaking News on Middle East Situation!

On the afternoon of the 28th, local time, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran announced that at least 200 U.S. military personnel were injured or killed in the missile attack launched by Iran. However, multiple U.S. media outlets reported that no casualties among U.S. personnel have been confirmed.

According to CCTV International, the IRGC announced a major achievement in their maritime counterattack: the Revolutionary Guard Navy launched multiple missiles, accurately hitting a U.S. combat support ship. The IRGC stated that the target was severely damaged after the missile strike.

It is noteworthy that, amid escalating conflict, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has come to a halt. Additionally, several European governments have issued urgent orders to their flagged oil tankers en route, strictly prohibiting passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

The sudden escalation of the Iran situation has drawn intense attention from capital markets. Industry insiders told China Securities Journal that since the afternoon of February 28, major brokerage firms have held numerous conference calls to quickly interpret the Iran situation. Among them, a meeting hosted by Orient Securities attracted over 2,000 participants and was fully booked instantly.

Iran Claims 200 U.S. Military Casualties

According to CCTV News, on the afternoon of the 28th, the Public Relations Department of the IRGC stated that several U.S.-Israeli missiles failed to hit their targets and instead fell in the deserts and urban areas of Iraq and Persian Gulf countries. The IRGC announced that at least 200 U.S. military personnel were injured or killed in the missile attack launched by Iran.

Currently, Iran is providing real-time updates on enemy aggression and its own “destructive retaliation” through various channels.

According to CCTV International, the IRGC stated that the Revolutionary Guard Navy launched multiple missiles, accurately hitting a U.S. combat support ship. The IRGC also issued a stern warning that all other U.S. maritime assets in the relevant waters are now within the pre-set strike range of IRGC missiles and drones, and attacks will continue.

Multiple U.S. media outlets reported on February 28 that Iran launched retaliatory attacks on U.S. military facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, the UAE, and Qatar. No casualties among U.S. personnel have been reported so far.

NBC News quoted U.S. officials as saying that after Iran attacked the U.S. Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, infrastructure in Bahrain was damaged.

A video posted on The Washington Post website shows an explosion near a U.S. Navy base in Manama, Bahrain. Two clips show smoke billowing from the base, and another shows a missile hitting a building with debris flying.

On the same day, U.S. Democratic Senator Tim Kaine issued a statement sharply criticizing the U.S. military strikes against Iran, calling them “dangerous, unnecessary, and foolish.” Kaine said, “These strikes are a huge mistake, and I pray they won’t cost the lives of our service members or embassy personnel in the region.”

He also called for the U.S. Senate to immediately reconvene and vote on his War Powers Resolution to prevent U.S. military involvement in hostile actions against Iran. Kaine emphasized, “Every senator needs to clearly state their position on this dangerous, unnecessary, and foolish action.”

In response to the U.S. and Israel’s military strikes against Iran on February 28, Russia, Spain, France, Oman, and other countries condemned the actions, urging restraint, de-escalation, and a return to diplomatic solutions.

Brokerage Firms Rapidly Analyze, 2,000 People Flood Conference Calls

Industry insiders told China Securities Journal that since the afternoon of February 28, major brokerages have quickly provided analyses on the Iran situation from macro, policy, strategy, and transportation perspectives. These conference calls attracted large numbers of institutional investors in a short period, with online meeting rooms filling up rapidly.

A researcher from a buy-side institution said, “I attended three conference calls tonight. The Orient Securities call with 2,000 participants was fully booked, and I couldn’t get in. The other two calls also had seven or eight hundred people.” “We’ve been working overtime. We just finished one call and are preparing for the next,” said a macro analyst from a large East China brokerage.

According to China Securities Journal, around 9:30 p.m. on Saturday, four roadshow meetings were still live. Among them, CITIC Construction Investment’s “U.S.-Israel Joint Attack on Iran: Live Analysis” attracted nearly 8,000 viewers.

A macro team from a brokerage believes that, based on Israel’s demands and U.S. troop movements, the scale and duration of the conflict could surpass the “June 12 War” of 2025, and Iran’s counterattack may be even more intense than that.

How will this affect major assets? The aforementioned brokerage believes that for A-shares, the short-term reaction to the conflict will be risk-averse. Overall in March, with the conflict resolution and U.S.-China interactions catalyzing, risk appetite is expected to gradually increase.

In crude oil, after the liquidity turmoil in February, oil prices have performed strongly, implying expectations of conflict outbreak. Considering MAGA’s focus on domestic issues, the probability of long-term U.S. involvement is limited. Once the uncertainty of the conflict materializes, oil prices are expected to spike briefly before retreating. Gold prices are expected to behave similarly, with pulse-like fluctuations.

The U.S. dollar is expected to see short-term support. Inflation expectations driven by oil price shocks and changes in rate cut prospects, along with risk aversion, will serve as positive catalysts. After the conflict settles, the dollar index is expected to remain within the 95–100 range. The adjustment of forward foreign exchange reserves on Friday, along with the resilience of the dollar, suggests the RMB against the dollar will gradually slow its appreciation.

U.S. Treasury yields on the 10-year note are expected to continue declining. Relative to inflation expectations, concerns over private credit shocks from AI impacts and the shift to defensive positions caused by geopolitical conflicts will remain dominant, affecting U.S. stocks and bonds.

(Article source: China Securities Journal)