[Vote] 2.28 Objective Data Review Post: Defending the Market for the Country?

[Stock Forum]

Hello to all new followers, I am your treasure blogger Wolf Bao.

Here, I share daily insights, market judgments, and valuable information.

Feel free to browse the valuable posts and watch the videos I’ve spent a lot of effort recording on emotional cycles.

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For those who prefer written reviews, you silently watch every day without contributing much effort.

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I try to keep everything balanced; for now, I’ll post long articles in text form on weekends.

This article should normally be published just before the market opens, but at that time, we are easily disturbed by news.

So let’s just treat it as if there’s no holiday interference—market opens on Monday, and I’ll objectively analyze Friday’s market and expectations.

For cycle reviews, we can freely hypothesize and speculate, commonly called YY (wishful thinking).

For data reviews, I try to be objective and rigorous, showing everyone what happened this week.

$1

Index Data

Exchange Rates

This is one of the basic conditions for a long-term slow bull market, but not a necessary one.

Last year, after we shut down Northbound data, we no longer knew the extent of foreign capital inflows.

Margin Financing and Securities Lending Data

2.65 trillion RMB

Excluding the first day after the holiday, capital started to flow back.

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Indices**

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Shenzhen’s three major indices are the strongest, reaching new highs on the right side.

Shanghai remains volatile.

ChiNext is the weakest.

The overall market has many uncertainties.

The trend is sideways, volume is moderate, neither rising nor falling significantly.

It can go either way.

Currently, institutions want a slow bull trend, which requires two conditions:

First, volume must recover—over 30 billion RMB—this depends on sustained profit-making effects.

If there’s profit-making, funds will smell blood like sharks. Without continuous profit effects, who will come?

Second, the indices need to be in a bullish arrangement, trending upward.

This involves geopolitical factors and the Two Sessions. In April, the White Glove will come to China.

Many uncertainties, and if prices rise sharply, various black swans could appear. My China A-shares still prefer to buy on dips.

So, the market remains volatile.

This turns into a rotation market—without volume support, multiple lines can’t rise simultaneously.

They all won’t fall; the trend will snake around.

Last night, I hadn’t finished writing, but today it has already started.

Last night, US tech stocks continued to plunge, oil and gold futures surged.

So, will the big A-shares buy in on Monday?

Most likely yes, as everyone has anticipated this move.

But the key is the strength and duration of the move.

If it’s a lightning strike like the Venezuela episode, then this drop will be the final blow, and the market will rebound immediately.

But this move failed. Short-term, the configuration can’t be changed.

So, the timing might extend. Starting from Saturday, whether it’s 4 days or 40 days will have completely different impacts on the future stock market.

M’s plan is to strike for 4 days and then leave, returning to their usual show.

Y’s key is next week’s window. As long as it can hold for 5–7 days, M will be dragged into the quagmire.

Pressure will be returned to M’s domestic market.

If that happens, Y will gain the initiative.

It feels like Y is using the network outage to manipulate public opinion,

forcing Y to deny rumors and expose positions.

Even if they are cut off, Y’s successor still exists.

So, the normal expectation is a 4–5 day fight, after which M will retreat without landing.

Then they will declare the goal achieved.

After multiple mediations, Y will return to negotiations.

For China A-shares, the key windows are Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

On Monday, it’s highly probable that the market will break below 4215 during trading.

If we don’t defend the market and it closes below 4125,

then we must prepare for a real decline wave three.

If the market enters wave three down,

then tech stocks that haven’t fallen yet and high-flyers will be vulnerable to being killed.

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Profit-making effect and trend**
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Strong recovery**

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It’s hard to say whether this is a failed wave 5 after wave three decline, leading to a new main upward trend,

because wave three did not break the low of wave two.

It could be an extension of wave two’s correction, with wave three not yet started.

**
Continuous boards, space, and market sentiment**

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Board tiers**

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Continuous boards best represent market sentiment.

Here, 7 consecutive boards appeared, actively challenging anomalies and succeeding.

So, the task is considered complete.

This mainly indicates that the loss effect is no longer reflected through extreme continuous limit-downs.

Funds can now go long.

But will they use a wave approach as the main strategy? Probably not.

Earlier, Silver, Nonferrous Metals, Hengdian’s horizontal challenge, and Yingshi Film & TV all succeeded in challenging anomalies.

But afterwards, the market still killed A-shares.

In one month, only three stocks challenged with a wave, each exceeding 100% gains.

Within the same month, dozens of stocks rose over 100% using trend methods, many even doubled.

So, the style remains trend-focused, with boards as a supplement.

In the future, Yunnan Energy Control will depend on how the next phase unfolds.

They can break the board, as long as the trend continues upward and expands in height, it’s market recognition.

Once they start trending A-shares, the challenge of not reaching 5 consecutive boards will reappear.

Since this week, many stocks reaching new highs on the right side have exceeded 100%, mostly in commodities, nonferrous metals, oil, and chemicals.

Large tech overseas sectors and computing power stocks also show this trend.

Board challenge from Boublov·Giant Baby perspective (this list will be updated regularly, don’t ask why it’s named this)

Giant Baby’s favorites

Yunnan Energy Control

Others are trash

Theme Cycles

There are no new cycles, at least no fully formed new cycle.

Old cycles haven’t fully retreated, so no new cycle has formed.

Here, I think wave three decline was not seen; it’s possible that two long-tail corrections occurred, and now the main upward trend is running within the correction phase, with the new cycle not yet started.

The current themes are mainly in the wave two correction, running the main upward trend, and crossing over from previous cycles.

First quarter: One cycle, commercial aerospace—undeniable, no need to elaborate.

First quarter: Two cycles, dual main lines, rising commodity prices—gold and silver saw epic surges and drops.

AI applications + computing power crossing over.

Commodity prices started with gold and silver, then surged and crashed.

After Salvador’s takeover of commercial aerospace, profit effects took over.

Core recognition: Hunan Silver, Silver Nonferrous, trend and wave leader.

Top out and get killed.

Then, funds remain optimistic, leaving some crossover opportunities in chemicals, oil, and nonferrous metals.

Chemicals: Runtu, Baichuan

Oil: Tongyuan Oil & Gas, Intercontinental Oil & Gas

Nonferrous metals: Tungsten, rare metals—these are likely upstream in overseas computing power, PCB drilling needles, and also have metal attributes.

These are understood as crossing the decline of gold and nonferrous metals, defying the trend.

After the holiday, four days of resonance in lithium batteries, chemicals, oil, nonferrous metals, coal, etc.

Excluding the breakout of phosphates, which formed a new main upward structure, the rest are seen as a rebound from the second wave of commodity decline, with a fifth round of supplementary rise.

On Friday, phosphate chemical stocks barely held on, with Jinjing Da feeling the low probability of a new cycle resonance.

It can also be seen as a rebound in themes.

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Domestic AI**

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Hardware: domestic advanced process expansion.

AI applications + AI computing power.

In the first half, it served as a sentiment rebound theme for commercial aerospace. Later, after Salvador, some funds shifted to this theme cycle.

Leading stocks: Zhitex New Materials and Blue Cursor.

During the decline, the fourth wave of rebound centered around Spring Festival AI and red envelope hype.

Bytedance, Tencent, Alibaba, computing power, star toys, etc.

The fifth wave of rebound involved Seedance-related software and hardware, which I didn’t know at the time.

Because it also followed a main upward structure, with strong capacity, sentiment, and elasticity.

Big Position Tech and Zhouchu Tech eventually retraced after the holiday, confirming Seedance as a rebound theme.

Hengdian Film & TV rode a wave of AI-driven entertainment, focusing on consumer box office.

Wangsu Technology, lobster concept, resonated twice, in the fourth and fifth waves.

After the holiday, new logic emerged: token going overseas. This is the sixth wave of rebound, possibly a new cycle.

This round’s focus is more on hardware than software.

Token going overseas: currently, the market isn’t focused; tokens are divided into data, AI, intelligent agents, computing power, and power sectors, all being speculated on.

On Friday morning, two stocks with one-character patterns appeared: Taijia Shares (computing power) and Geer Software (AI + quantum).

But these two sectors’ leading stocks lacked strong recognition.

Funds shifted around GanNeng Shares and Yunnan Energy Control for arbitrage, then moved to power sector in the afternoon.

Domestic chip advanced process expansion and commercial aerospace are associated with Jinhai Tong and Yaxiang Integration.

Currently, cleanroom stocks have changed to Shenghui Integration, and downstream packaging/testing: Changchuan Technology, Sputtering Target Materials, Oulai New Materials.

Overseas computing power in the three-cycle phase supplies giants like NVIDIA and Google.

After Salvador, nonferrous metals and gold directly attracted funds into a main upward trend.

Because the market didn’t experience wave three decline, the big阴线 before the holiday can be understood as a strong divergence during the main upward process.

Fully resonating with the market, if the market in the future either stagnates or continues to break through, this sector might continue endlessly. It’s all driven by institutional funds controlling the rhythm.

This logic is about new technological iterations—whatever new tech emerges overseas, we explore related industry chains.

Mostly some peripheral components, with less than 10% value in servers abroad.

My A-share institutions like to speculate on these, tracking orders and performance feedback, which seems no different from storytelling.

But their professionalism is unquestionable.

For example, TPU, LPU—who can truly supply? Have they passed factory inspections? How long from sampling to order?

They can exceed expectations. Domestic computing power isn’t bad? Need to see orders and performance.

A-share institutions are too patient.

Last year, CPO was 10 times higher; in fact, companies like Xinyi Sheng and Zhongji Xuchuang already doubled or tripled.

This year, CPO remains lukewarm.

Only Tianfu Communications saw moderate gains and started to rebound.

New tech: hollow-core optical fiber from Longfei Fiber can be a good trend anchor.

Honghe Technology for PCB electronic wiring.

Xianglu Tungsten for PCB drilling needles.

Tungsten, as a small metal backing the rising commodity prices, can indeed be considered nonferrous.

But this price increase is mainly due to tooling and drill needle costs, indirectly pushing up tungsten powder raw materials.

Also, liquid cooling, MLCC, PCB copper foil, etc., are all peripheral components used in overseas servers and computing hardware.

Of course, overseas giants still lack some aspects, so smart grids going overseas, energy storage transformers, and gas turbines can also be considered overseas computing power.

The entire overseas computing sector is trying to surpass the so-called failed wave three decline before the holiday.

Nothing happened; the sectors with the largest gains—Xianglu Tungsten, Changfei Fiber, Honghe Technology—are trending well and reaching new highs again.

On Friday night, Nvidia’s plunge didn’t kill these stocks.

Moreover, the capacity of these sectors with a market value of hundreds of billions is increasingly reaching new highs.

Only when the market volume expands and the main trend turns upward will the sector truly rise.

So, any so-called new cycle now is just trial and error.

Old cycles aren’t fully dead, so don’t talk about new cycles yet.

What’s emerging at low levels are mostly rebound stocks and themes.

Commercial aerospace, robotics, and the Two Sessions preheat are all premeditated.

Commercial aerospace and robotics have become rotation expectations; stocks that rotate into are actually selling points.

The Two Sessions are mostly guesswork—no real basis, just a shot in the dark.

But the main trend hasn’t retreated, so don’t chase these.

**
Summary:**
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1. Institutional dominance in discourse and pricing power.

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On Thursday, no institutions drove the 100-billion-weighted stocks like China Power and Shenzhen South Electric Circuit, so the overseas computing sector wasn’t the main theme that day.

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On Friday, no institutions drove the 100-billion stocks like Xiamen Tungsten and China Tungsten High-tech, so small metals weren’t the main theme that day.

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2. The trend remains the main style, with continuous boards and wave-like opportunities.

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From the pattern of stocks doubling, you can see the trend—dozens of stocks in three waves, with two waves leaving room for A-shares. The rest are uncertain.

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3. Rhythm is controlled by quantification or one-day trading funds.

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Don’t chase stronger; focus on turning weak into strong.

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4. Themes don’t rely on emotional main rises; they follow trend-driven main rises, which take a long time and are slow and unclear.

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5. Overseas computing power is only constrained by the market. Without volume and a main upward trend, it can’t operate.

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This sector’s rhythm is very chaotic, with chasing and panic selling.

Key leading sectors include PCB electronics, fiber optics, and PCB drilling needles, rotating in turns.

If you interpret Friday’s tungsten as overseas computing power, it’s acceptable. Changfei Fiber is weak, Honghe Technology hit the limit down.

But Xianglu Tungsten is strong; Changfei was pushed back, Honghe hit the limit down, yet the overall trend isn’t bad.

Data speaks
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Let’s state the conclusion directly.

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Data expectations show divergence the next day.

The four days after the holiday set expectations with divergence.

Divergence isn’t absent, especially in the last two days,

which were digested during trading.

So, once the market truly expands volume and reaches new highs on the right side,

the institutional trend will truly arrive.

But whether the external environment will intervene or not, the Two Sessions are not yet underway.

What they say at the Two Sessions—no need to consider?

Friday’s continuous board data was peak data; Monday’s expectations are divergent.

If you want to learn data review, look into data entry and application.

Summarizing what happened today:

Strong stocks fantasizing ┗|｀O′|┛

Core sentiment stocks

The ugliest B stocks

Loss tags

The most A stocks

The most attractive

Yunnan Energy Control

Monday’s divergence expectations

Boards can break, but A-shares shouldn’t be killed.

It remains a key emotional anchor.

Xianglu Tungsten

Jiang Tung Equipment

Zhangyuan Tungsten

The three tungsten giants

Monday’s forecast

Normal expectation: big A-shares will buy.

The key is how many days they buy.

Verification

Positive feedback

Yunnan Energy Control

Xianglu Tungsten

Negative feedback anchoring

Response

Futures have already reflected it; chasing futures is risky.

Many changes are possible. Good stocks are hard to buy; bought stocks involve speculation and time for fermentation.

Profit directions:

First: Oil

Second: Shipping

Third: Gold

Fourth: Military industry. The first three have no expectation difference but certainty.

Technology sector is at a divergence point—choose to resist decline, but it’s more about who can resist than who will.

Because if a black swan ferments over a long time, resisting one day isn’t enough; resisting multiple days is better.

Watch the decline-resistant stocks first. When divergence subsides, actively going against the trend and strengthening is the safer focus.

Holding cash and watching the show is a good response.

Whether or not to act on Monday, as long as the main upward trend isn’t confirmed, reduce positions first.

More detailed verification and responses are in the morning session.

If you want to learn deeply, check the blogger’s homepage for extensive free articles on analysis.

Summary of today’s events:

Strong stocks fantasizing ┗|｀O′|┛

Core sentiment stocks

The ugliest B stocks

Loss tags

The most A stocks

The most attractive

Yunnan Energy Control

Monday’s divergence expectations

Boards can break, but A-shares shouldn’t be killed.

It remains a key emotional anchor.

Xianglu Tungsten

Jiang Tung Equipment

Zhangyuan Tungsten

The three tungsten giants

Monday’s forecast

Normal expectation: big A-shares will buy.

The key is how many days they buy.

Verification

Positive feedback

Yunnan Energy Control

Xianglu Tungsten

Negative feedback anchoring

Response

Futures have already reflected it; chasing futures is risky.

Many changes are possible. Good stocks are hard to buy; bought stocks involve speculation and time for fermentation.

Profit directions:

First: Oil

Second: Shipping

Third: Gold

Fourth: Military industry. The first three have no expectation difference but certainty.

Technology sector is at a divergence point—choose to resist decline, but it’s more about who can resist than who will.

Because if a black swan ferments over a long time, resisting one day isn’t enough; resisting multiple days is better.

Watch the decline-resistant stocks first. When divergence subsides, actively going against the trend and strengthening is the safer focus.

Holding cash and watching the show is a good response.

Whether or not to act on Monday, as long as the main upward trend isn’t confirmed, reduce positions first.

More detailed verification and responses are in the morning session.

If you want to learn deeply, check the blogger’s homepage for extensive free articles on analysis.

The data review is the most exhausting; I spend 1–2 hours daily manually organizing data.

Once organized, I keep it in my mind—no need to write it out; writing is just for everyone to see.

If this post can’t be featured or pinned, I really don’t want to write.

Even if it’s featured, the effort and reward are far from proportional. Hope you understand and cherish it.

100 points is love; one oil ticket is also love.

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